snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 7:12 AM, cmichweather said: the lions held the pack to 3 points so i wouldn't go off the regular season Bad example. If i remember correctly that was the game that Aaron Rodgers got hurt early and was out the rest of the game. Game probably ends up different in Rodgers played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This pattern is exactly why I won't latch onto a single operational run (or even successive ones) which may suggest an arctic outbreak. Heck, even the failed attempt number one had nearly of week of GFS ensemble backing and a number of favorable pattern changes and that one was DOA. The Dr. No ensemble mean has completely flip flopped and changed the overall timing of any particular cold plunge with the general mean shifted much farther E. Even the operational run looks bad now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 3º for the low temp here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Today is one of those rare occasions when I dont mind sun in the winter. The shining sun is making the 6" blanket of snow look gorgeous but without threatening it (high at best 20F). Still not as good as a slate-gray overcast, but I can deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Down to 2 here this morning. Hard to believe plain old rain could be falling here later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:08 PM, cyclone77 said: Down to 2 here this morning. Hard to believe plain old rain could be falling here later tomorrow. Always amazing, isn't it? I have another 24-36 hours to enjoy my snow pack before it gets wiped out by this next system. I hate grinch storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:15 PM, Chicago WX said: Always amazing, isn't it? I have another 24-36 hours to enjoy my snow pack before it gets wiped out by this next system. I hate grinch storms. You have a pretty good cover again down there though don't you? Hopefully you keep most of it. At least the WAA ahead of tomorrow's system isn't outrageous like the NYE storm. We only have 2" here, so if it ends up primarily rain our snow will be toast. Hoping to sneak a few inches in before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:19 PM, cyclone77 said: You have a pretty good cover again down there though don't you? Hopefully you keep most of it. At least the WAA ahead of tomorrow's system isn't outrageous like the NYE storm. We only have 2" here, so if it ends up primarily rain our snow will be toast. Hoping to sneak a few inches in before the changeover. About 4 or so inches. Of course it's a little uneven because of some drifting. I'm banking on the usual underestimation of WAA from the models, which should pretty much with the combo of 0.25-0.50" of rain, sweep all the snow down the drain. I hope it doesn't all go away, but I remain pessimistic about my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z GFS still much less impressive with the arctic outbreak. Basically nothing we haven't seen already this season. I'm definitely done taking arctic outbreak scenarios seriously until we're well within the 84hr range. At least we'll all save a lot on energy bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:28 PM, cyclone77 said: 12z GFS still much less impressive with the arctic outbreak. Basically nothing we haven't seen already this season. I'm definitely done taking arctic outbreak scenarios seriously until we're well within the 84hr range. At least we'll all save a lot on energy bills. Exactly. Even the ECM ensembles, which had been right on the first 2 threats, had a couple hiccup runs with this potential. The cold air is there--it just keeps finding a different reason to end up somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:26 PM, Chicago WX said: About 4 or so inches. Of course it's a little uneven because of some drifting. I'm banking on the usual underestimation of WAA from the models, which should pretty much with the combo of 0.25-0.50" of rain, sweep all the snow down the drain. I hope it doesn't all go away, but I remain pessimistic about my chances. I really dont think you will be losing all that snow. As I said in the other thread, in a torch, models usually underestimate things despite snowpack, but this is no torch. Im sure you will be warmer there than here, but even there, dont think youll hit 40F. If anything the snowpack may act as a sponge, and you will have a solidified mass of snow, albeit less than the 4" you started with, when its all said and done. Here, Im expecting our 6" snowpack goes down to at worst 4" before hopefully rising with the deform snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:39 PM, michsnowfreak said: I really dont think you will be losing all that snow. As I said in the other thread, in a torch, models usually underestimate things despite snowpack, but this is no torch. Im sure you will be warmer there than here, but even there, dont think youll hit 40F. If anything the snowpack may act as a sponge, and you will have a solidified mass of snow, albeit less than the 4" you started with, when its all said and done. Here, Im expecting our 6" snowpack goes down to at worst 4" before hopefully rising with the deform snow. Oh I think we'll hit at least 40º here. 9/10 times in these scenarios LAF torches pretty good, relatively speaking. Plus the snow isn't holding a lot of water, which should make it easier to disappear. But we'll see. Even if it does get wiped out, I'm liking the chances of replenishing the snow pack later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 324 HR GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:48 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 324 HR GFS FTW Looks like a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:48 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 324 HR GFS FTW I'll pass on 3 EC storms before it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:51 PM, Chicago WX said: Looks like a legit threat. Typical NNW track coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:48 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 324 HR GFS FTW That's damn near into February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:53 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Typical NNW track coastal. Yep...eastern Gulf to the outer banks to SYR. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 4:52 PM, Stebo48858 said: I'll pass on 3 EC storms before it though. I only see 1 EC storm...and its mostly rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Meso low love for the Bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 6:47 PM, Chicago Storm said: Meso low love for the Bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Goddamn that field is so ****ty.. Hopefully that fluff covers up that eyesore turf. Seahaggs sure haven't showed up.. The lucky horseshoe remains firmly up Lovie's and Bears a$$ for the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The field ****ing sucks, just like all Chicago teams. Refs/announcers in the Bears favor already, just ****ty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 6:58 PM, Moneyman said: The field ****ing sucks, just like all Chicago teams. Refs/announcers in the Bears favor already, just ****ty. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/493-2010-11-chicago-bears-thread/page__st__200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 last 3 home games have featured some big ole dendrites at soldier, gotta love watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 7:00 PM, Thundersnow12 said: last 3 home games have featured some big ole dendrites at soldier, gotta love watching this. lowest rated playoff game in NFL history. I can barely watch it. Fluffy flurries falling help me. im guessing most of the country is switching this one off until the late game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 6:58 PM, Moneyman said: The field ****ing sucks, just like all Chicago teams. Refs/announcers in the Bears favor already, just ****ty. Stop trying to be like bowme. We know he's your idol, but I think that's enough humping his leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Cutler=garbage.... ARod=MVP... Nice day today. Sunshine, mild temps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS between 192 and 252 is one big ole pile of LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 326 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2011 DISCUSSION 325 PM CST CERTAINLY BEEN A BEAR (PARDON THE PUN) OF A DAY TODAY...HAVING TO CHASE/DEAL WITH THE SURPRISE "LAKE RESULT" SNOW THAT HIT US TODAY. OTHER THAN FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS...BRUNT OF THE FORECAST EFFORT HAS GONE INTO THE SLOPPY SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST STARTING THE WEEK OFF AND THEN THE APPARENT CANCELLATION OF THE LATE WEEK ARCTIC OUTBREAK! QUICKLY WANT TO TOUCH ON HOW/WHY WE GOT THOSE SURPRISE LAKE EFFECT...OR PROBABLY MORE ACCURATELY CALLED LAKE RESULT...SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EVERY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE HELPED SPREAD AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WERE INITIALLY TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. EARLY THIS MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGAN TO VEER BLOWING THOSE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FIRST WEST...THEN NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS. WHILE THIS WAS OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A PLUME OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THERE WAS VIRGA FALLING FROM THIS MID-LEVEL DECK...WITH THE DVN VWP THIS MORNING INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL DECK WAS APPROX 6000FT DEEP AND EXTENDED DOWN TO ABOUT 6000FT MSL. AS THIS MID DECK AND ITS VIRGA SPREAD OVER TOP THE INITIALLY NON-PRECIPITATING LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS...SNOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPED BETWEEN 900 AND 930 AM CDT AS THE MID LEVEL DECK AND ITS VIRGA BEGAN TO "SEED" THE LOWER CLOUDS IN A PROCESS KNOWN AS SEEDER FEEDER. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO VEER DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING THE AREA OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW TO SHIFT NORTH ACROSS CHICAGO. SO STRICTLY SPEAKING THIS WAS NOT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WE SAW TODAY AS WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AND BLOWING OFFSHORE...BUT IT WAS THE RESULT OF CLOUDS WHICH WERE ORIGINALLY THE RESULT OF THE LAKE SO UNLESS SOMEONE COMES UP WITH A BETTER NAME...IM GOING TO REFER TO THE SURPRISE SNOW TODAY AS "LAKE RESULT" SNOW. WILL LIKELY POST A STORY ON OUR WEBPAGE THIS EVENING OR MONDAY ILLUSTRATING THIS PROCESS BETTER. SCIENCE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.