cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yup, it looks like the arctic air will finally infiltrate the Midwest later this upcoming week. With many areas getting some additional fresh cover this week some areas could really bottom out. Well, we're half way through January, and we have 2.0" of snow for the month so far. Overall it's been a very quiet month here so far, but it looks like we have a shot at a few decent snow events this upcoming week. We should be able to rebuild the snow pack, but I doubt we'll reattain the 14" of cover we once had lol. Have 2" on the ground now. Edit: Haven't seen OceanStWx or Justin on the boards in quite some time. Probably since around the xmas storm. Hope everything's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Picked up another 4 inches of snow here last night. Though these clippers don't give much snow to many areas, they are when my area really seems to cash in. The southwest winds that accompany many of them help to "lake enhance" the snowfall. We've had three different clippers move through this week with 3 rounds of 4 inch snows...snow depth over a foot now. Looking for several more to come this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS/EURO both pretty nuts with the cold next weekend. I'm thinking -20Fs are likely here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I missed out completely on last night's clipper. Oh well. Nasty/windy/cloudy day here though. Next week or two look pretty boring in my backyard. I guess it will be sort of interesting to see how cold it can get late next week into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yup, it looks like the arctic air will finally infiltrate the Midwest later this upcoming week. With many areas getting some additional fresh cover this week some areas could really bottom out. Edit: Haven't seen OceanStWx or Justin on the boards in quite some time. Probably since around the xmas storm. Hope everything's ok. Yes, after continuously delaying the real cold air it appears the models may finally have locked on to the end of the coming week. It's about time we see some -10 to -20 temps because so far this winter we've barely even been below zero. I have also been wondering about OceanStWX and Justin. I have to think they may have left the board for some reason. I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yup, it looks like the arctic air will finally infiltrate the Midwest later this upcoming week. With many areas getting some additional fresh cover this week some areas could really bottom out. Well, we're half way through January, and we have 2.0" of snow for the month so far. Overall it's been a very quiet month here so far, but it looks like we have a shot at a few decent snow events this upcoming week. We should be able to rebuild the snow pack, but I doubt we'll reattain the 14" of cover we once had lol. Have 2" on the ground now. Edit: Haven't seen OceanStWx or Justin on the boards in quite some time. Probably since around the xmas storm. Hope everything's ok. Haven't heard much from Csnavywx either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z gfs has us down to about -34 by 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't think its dipped below zero here in 700 some odd days.. That can't happen to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z gfs has us down to about -34 by 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 498 dm thickness cutting right through Chicago at 144 hours per 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Very cold on the 12z Euro. Highs would be below zero next Saturday in LAF if this verified verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Very cold on the 12z Euro. Highs would be below zero next Saturday in LAF if this verified verbatim. yep absolutely brutal...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yep absolutely brutal...wow I have campaigned for 0 next Saturday in Ohio. If the storm on Thursday materializes based on a tight gradient between stale cold, polar air and a massive Arctic freight train then the storm should wind up, lay down decent snow, then slam cold air in here. A factor that might have to be discussed more in detail is wind. A strong high behind a strengthening low with as much as a 30 degree difference, Wind Chill Warnings might become an issue around the region. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I have campaigned for 0 next Saturday in Ohio. If the storm on Thursday materializes based on a tight gradient between stale cold, polar air and a massive Arctic freight train then the storm should wind up, lay down decent snow, then slam cold air in here. A factor that might have to be discussed more in detail is wind. A strong high behind a strengthening low with as much as a 30 degree difference, Wind Chill Warnings might become an issue around the region. Josh ILN mentions the possible need for wind chill advisories and that it could be colder depending on if we get a fresh snowpack. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 335 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY OFFER A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ATTM. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND WHETHER IT CAN TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE JUST GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. OPERATIONAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL..WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE USUALLY TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS TO GO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER THAN THIS...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND IF THE REGION CAN REGAIN ANOTHER SNOW COVER BY WEEKS END. FINALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The Dr No ensemble mean looks better than 0Z with at least a decent upper trough and cold plunge. It still isn't nearly as impressive as the op, but better. Personally I am rooting for a crippling cold plunge, even if only for a couple days like this potential threat would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Gusty winds this afternoon caused quite a bit of blowing/drifting snow. Not so much in residential areas, snow is still a fairly even 5-6" after some settling/blowing, but in open areas...can you say drifts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 NWS here jumping onboard... 30 below! .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY. 15.00Z/12Z ECMWF... 15.12Z CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTH POLE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING IS PROGGED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH ALLOWS THE ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE IN. PRIOR TO THE ARCTIC AIR...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THIS...SINCE THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO KEEP MORE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO GO DRY AS THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATE. REGARDING THE ARCTIC AIR...850MB TEMPS CRASH FROM AROUND -14C AT 12Z THURSDAY TO AROUND -24C AT 12Z FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY TOO...SO CONCERN INCREASES FOR WIND CHILLS. BY 12Z FRIDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT 40 BELOW WIND CHILLS FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. UNDER THIS HIGH...READINGS COULD TANK TO 30 BELOW AS THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AT NIGHT. FOR NOW...STAYED A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE...GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS IN THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 20 BELOW. HOWEVER...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwassmer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow, the cold is coming. Just hope there's decent snow to go with it. Biggest snow here so far this year with any one "event" is 2.5". Need a big snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It does look like the 18z isn't quite as cold. I still wouldn't doubt we have a day that doesn't get above 0F. It would be nice to not get any colder then about -25F. Not sure what apricot blossoms can handle, but I doubt its any colder then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 NWS here jumping onboard... 30 below! ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah the EURO had a high of 5 next Friday and 4 next Saturday with lots near 15 below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice snowband off Lk Huron has setup just to my west. Doesn't look like it'll make it in here And yeah, it weird about our disappearing mets. Justin had some health problems IIRC, so that might explain his absence. The others (csnavy, oceanst) I got no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Chicago Bears or the Seahawks... Either Cutler or Hasselback...one of them gets put into a "Tombstone" by Clay Matthews. Cold out there tonite. Down to 4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Saturday, January 15th: Hi: 25F Lo: 12F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 21MPH Rainfall: Trace Snowfall: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Chicago Bears or the Seahawks... Either Cutler or Hasselback...one of them gets put into a "Tombstone" by Clay Matthews. Cold out there tonite. Down to 4F. Seattle is going to win this one, Chicago already lost to Seattle at home and Seattle has momentum. Chicago lucked its way this far, hell the Lions beat them twice but the wins were taken away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Seattle is going to win this one, Chicago already lost to Seattle at home and Seattle has momentum. Chicago lucked its way this far, hell the Lions beat them twice but the wins were taken away. The Bears will have a chip on their shoulder about the Seahawks winning earlier in the season. The Bears played about as bad as they could and still only lost by 3. They couldn't even convert a single 3rd down in that game. The only thing Seattle has going for them is momentum, which can be very good. If the Bears play well in all three phases it should be a very decided Bears win. If they play as crappy as they did in the first game they may lose. Bears 38, Seahawks 21. Already down to 6 here. Looks like we may end up getting down pretty close to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Bears will have a chip on their shoulder about the Seahawks winning earlier in the season. The Bears played about as bad as they could and still only lost by 3. They couldn't even convert a single 3rd down in that game. The only thing Seattle has going for them is momentum, which can be very good. If the Bears play well in all three phases it should be a very decided Bears win. If they play as crappy as they did in the first game they may lose. Bears 38, Seahawks 21. Already down to 6 here. Looks like we may end up getting down pretty close to zero. doesn't really matter..... but superbowl will be greenbay patriots but if you wanna predict scores i'd got a bit lower 27-24 bears but they get smoked by the cheese heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 doesn't really matter..... but superbowl will be greenbay patriots but if you wanna predict scores i'd got a bit lower 27-24 bears but they get smoked by the cheese heads. Everyone forgets the Bears match up very well against the Packers. Assuming the Bears actually do win today I wouldn't automatically pencil in the Packers. Just two weeks ago the Bears defense held the Pack to 10 points. If the Bears offense had actually showed up that day it would have been a clean sweep for the season. Every game is different, but assuming the Packers will smoke the Bears is probably a bit premature LOL. BTW, the arctic air cancel by almost all of the new 00z model guidance is pretty interesting. Definitely look forward to the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Saturday, January 15th: Hi: 25F Lo: 12F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 21MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" gosh I dont even look at what you write anymore with that picture up, sorry about your falcons lol but man did rodgers look good, not gonna lie, im scared to play them if we win. as for the game tomorrow, bears will win, if not I'm done with them. they were a totally different team when they played in week 6, it was around a 75/25 pass to run ratio, didn't convert a 3rd down and I think the bears had 2 returns called back due to penalties. we will have to get pressure on hasselbutt though and not let him pick apart are famous tampa 2 defense with each safety deep. down to 6 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Everyone forgets the Bears match up very well against the Packers. Assuming the Bears actually do win today I wouldn't automatically pencil in the Packers. Just two weeks ago the Bears defense held the Pack to 10 points. If the Bears offense had actually showed up that day it would have been a clean sweep for the season. Every game is different, but assuming the Packers will smoke the Bears is probably a bit premature LOL. BTW, the arctic air cancel by almost all of the new 00z model guidance is pretty interesting. Definitely look forward to the 12z runs. the lions held the pack to 3 points so i wouldn't go off the regular season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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