Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z Euro setting up the old overrunning scenario from about 132 hours to 156/162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If we want to get technical, via the 12z Euro, it's probably a decent icing event for southern/southwest MO (including STL I'm assuming) with a good hit of snow farther north from KC to pretty much all of IA, SW WI, W IL...before it weakens a bit from 144 to 156/162 for the rest of IL/IN/WI/MI (i.e. lighter amounts), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Had 0.9" of fluff last night and this morning, we are nickeling/diming along quite nicely! Up to 9.4" imby in January, already surpassing December's 9.2"...with more snow on the way tonight . DTW looks certain to pass 20" on the season by this time tomorrow (they are at 19.1") and I probably will too (18.6"). The 1"+ snowcover days continue to add up as well, up to 30 with no end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Aren't we about half way through winter? Around here I'd say yes. Snowstorms can happen all the way into April, but for the last several years we've seen basically nothing after the end of Feb. The sun gets strong enough by early to mid March that anything that falls has a hard time staying around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I *think* this week is the coldest on average... Looks like next week could end up being the coldest week yet, if not the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I *think* this week is the coldest on average... Looks like next week could end up being the coldest week yet, if not the entire winter. I'm wondering, at what temperature should I start worrying about my car getting messed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I *think* this week is the coldest on average... Looks like next week could end up being the coldest week yet, if not the entire winter. really? our coldest week on average isnt until around feb 7th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think...i'll look it up later. I swear the wx guy on TV said that earlier this week. Maybe not. Who knows. I need to live by the lake so i don't get so cold. Cars start sounding funky below 0F it seems. At -20F they really make some odd noises. I remember my old pickup truck would not start that cold, so i just would go out and run it a few times a night (yeah...it sucked!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think...i'll look it up later. I swear the wx guy on TV said that earlier this week. Maybe not. Who knows. I need to live by the lake so i don't get so cold. Cars start sounding funky below 0F it seems. At -20F they really make some odd noises. I remember my old pickup truck would not start that cold, so i just would go out and run it a few times a night (yeah...it sucked!). I'd rather do that than have the engine crack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 really? our coldest week on average isnt until around feb 7th or so. Jan 19-28 is the coldest at Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Was running errands earlier today, and being such a pretty day, I had my camera with me, took some different types of shots. My cat who LOVES snow, massive plowed snow piles in the mall parking lot, a snowy cemetary, a plane landing at DTW, and closeup snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa....Outlook2011.pdf Just as I expected, per their updated winter forecast, while DTX is expecting a much colder winter than normal (possibly -2.0 or lower on average), they've lowered their snowfall expectations from above normal to normal. In that respect, this winter is a bust. But for those who didn't have high expectations or are still optimistic about an above average winter, it really doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa....Outlook2011.pdf Just as I expected, per their updated winter forecast, while DTX is expecting a much colder winter than normal (possibly -2.0 or lower on average), they've lowered their snowfall expectations from above normal to normal. In that respect, this winter is a bust. But for those who didn't have high expectations or are still optimistic about an above average winter, it really doesn't matter. locally above average at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Was running errands earlier today, and being such a pretty day, I had my camera with me, took some different types of shots. My cat who LOVES snow, massive plowed snow piles in the mall parking lot, a snowy cemetary, a plane landing at DTW, and closeup snowflakes. I have to say one of my favorite experiences of 2010 was taking off from OKC w/ no snow on the ground and then landing at DTW with a nice snowcover. That was sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 locally above average at the end That's equivalent to a forecast for isolated t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I have to say one of my favorite experiences of 2010 was taking off from OKC w/ no snow on the ground and then landing at DTW with a nice snowcover. That was sweet. you going to be in OKC for severe season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 you going to be in OKC for severe season? I'll be there until May 13th and I already have storm chasing partners lined up...it's gonna be fun. If I get anything I'll be sure to share pics/videos. Being from Michigan, my standards are low. Never seen anything bigger than 1" diameter hail, or even a funnel cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'll be there until May 13th and I already have storm chasing partners lined up...it's gonna be fun. If I get anything I'll be sure to share pics/videos. Being from Michigan, my standards are low. Never seen anything bigger than 1" diameter hail, or even a funnel cloud. I have a feeling you'll be getting a lot of storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 To review on my stance I had S Ohio being a bit above average on snowfall and 1 or 2 below normal but I think I have to lower the temps overall as more and more evidence is coming in that the general area I reside. The gradual warming I had for Jan failed and this area will not have much of a warm up for an extended time frame. A revision of winter forecasts might need to be updated to trend colder. Each region is different so I cannot answer for other regions but the cold looks to be the main feature and we should continue that right into the spring. I am not going to change snow but if we get a heavy snow storm I would have to increase that too. I had 30 inches for Dayton and we stand at 14 so that might be on par but if we do cash in on a thumper then I would have to raise that, too. This is not the La Nina's we have seen since the late 1970s. Exciting but challenging times ahead to figure out the new global pattern regime we are going head strong into. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I have a feeling you'll be getting a lot of storms this year. Any reasoning for that? I haven't looked at much long range stuff...I'd love an active season; so far, I got 2 severe thunderstorm warnings in the first two weeks of being there, then nothing since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Any reasoning for that? I haven't looked at much long range stuff...I'd love an active season; so far, I got 2 severe thunderstorm warnings in the first two weeks of being there, then nothing since. Just been hearing some things and the last La Nina produced a lot of severe weather in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just been hearing some things and the last La Nina produced a lot of severe weather in this area. Alright, good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just been hearing some things and the last La Nina produced a lot of severe weather in this area. I will back that up. Typically, La Nina Springs tend to be more violent than non Nina's. It does not mean this season will be like that but the research I have done, while possibly a bit delayed at the start, severe weather really cranks in the Plains and Midwest as we get farther into Spring. The only negative factor that could limit this some is that the warm air that surges north as we progress in the warm season does not appear to be overly strong but it might be a case where less events but stronger events to produce a lot of violent weather. I want my snow until March but come April 1st, let it blow up. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Piling it up slow and steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That's equivalent to a forecast for isolated t'storms. Yea isolated turns into widepsread and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS has a pretty decent cold shot about a week from now. Too early to get very specific but it would certainly be below zero for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Friday, January 14th: Hi: 27F Lo: 17F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 9MPH Rainfall: 0.01" Snowfall: 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 00z Euro with the arctic pain late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am personally rooting for a 0 day, I will likely end up short but with all the mayhem in trying to figure this out anything is on the table. Everything points to cold and colder for the next 21 days starting Tuesday but I still believe we need a sizable N TN runner to get the Arctic train to slam down through the area to get to 0. Maybe Thursday should be watched for this clipper to become a super clipper or something becoming very robust as it heads SE. I know there is a thread for that but using this as a Jan representation this could make it 0 next Saturday. Would be fun. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 THU 18Z 20-JAN -5.1 -12.2 1019 73 97 0.05 541 526 FRI 00Z 21-JAN -6.5 -13.9 1015 85 95 0.11 534 522 FRI 06Z 21-JAN -9.5 -15.9 1012 86 65 0.06 522 513 FRI 12Z 21-JAN -15.8 -18.8 1013 73 83 0.01 513 503 FRI 18Z 21-JAN -13.4 -19.7 1015 72 97 0.02 511 499 (DAMN!) All aboard the Siberian Express. This is for KDAY and I honestly cannot remember the last time we had a sub 500 thickness for here. We have been in the 510s maybe a 509 but 499, DAMN! Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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