Indystorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Great loop to watch how the LES develops tonight se of Lake Michigan. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/niuft.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Crazy windy here with LES coming in. GRR didn't forecast but half an inch here and we have already picked up an inch and still going very strong. Crazy winds and everything but still pretty warm at 23 degrees. That -40 stuff is insane! Interesting. Wondering if our low-ratio sugary powder pixie dust from the fringe of the OV snowstorm will translate to fluffy high ratio stuff with the arctic front? What are ratios there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well whoever's hoping for cold/dry your wish has been granted. I'll give it to February, then I'll probably cancel winter (at least when it comes to a big storm or average season). Canceling a big storm is one thing (dont see how its logical, but I digress)...but to say "cancel winter" makes ZERO sense to me when this winter is the true definition of an "old-fashioned" winter. Snowflakes almost always in the air, snow on the ground, and nearly peristent cold. That is winter in every sense of the word. But it sounds like by winter you are STRICTLY talking snowfall (and discounting the below normal temperatures/above normal snowcover)..but even then...by every stat you look at, we are right on pace for an average season (if the backend predictions hold, an above average one). Here is 1971-00 climo for November through January 31st at DTW vs what we have had so far: Avg snowfall: 26.0" (we are at 21.2" with 11 more days to go) Avg 0.1"+ snowfall days: 22 (we are at 21 with 11 more days to go) Avg 1.0"+ snowfall days: 8 (we are at 6 or 7 with 11 more days to go Avg 3.0"+ snowfall days: 2 (we are at 2 with 11 more days to go) Avg 5.0"+ snowfall days: 1 (we are at 1 with 11 more days to go) Avg days with 1"+ snowcover: 29 days (we will be at 46 days, 17 ABOVE average) Avg days with 3"+ snowcover: 18 days (we are at 27 days with 11 more days to go) Avg days with 5"+ snowcover: 9 days (we are at 25 days with 11 more days to go) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We're in pretty rarified air here in LAF. Today's 2.2" of snowfall puts us over 30" for the season to date. So I went back through my records of LAF/WL's snow history, which dates back to 1901, and looked at seasons that had 30" by the end of January. This season makes the 7th time it's happened. Hopefully we can continue our good fortune this winter. 30"+ totals through the end of January for each season: 1903-04: 36.1" 1914-15: 31.1" 1929-30: 37.6" 1977-78: 53.2" 1981-82: 37.7" 1983-84: 32.8" 2010-11: 30.3" And just for kicks, the top 10 snowiest seasons in the LAF/WL area since 1901: 1) 68.1"...1977-78 2) 61.5"...1981-82 3) 56.4"...1904-05 4) 53.8"...1903-04 5) 49.3"...1983-84 6) 47.8"...2007-08 7) 46.3"...1929-30 8) 43.8"...1911-12 9) 43.0"...1925-26 10) 40.2"...1905-06 Pretty impressive! With plenty of winter to go so 40" seems quite doable. Who knows, if things really get crazy in Feb and March it's not out of the question you make 50". You have a good enough start that it's on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Temp continuing to steadily drop here. Even with gusty northwest winds. Down to 5, and the latest RUC drops us to -15. It drops Hawkeye to -20. It looks like the surface ridge ends up right on top of us by early tomorrow morning setting up a near perfect radiational cooling setup. A few years ago we hit -32 here at the house. That was easily the coldest temps I've ever felt. We won't be seeing anything like that tonight, but negative teens are still pretty impressive if we can do it. This is almost as exciting as a snow system LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Temp continuing to steadily drop here. Even with gusty northwest winds. Down to 5, and the latest RUC drops us to -15. It drops Hawkeye to -20. It looks like the surface ridge ends up right on top of us by early tomorrow morning setting up a near perfect radiational cooling setup. A few years ago we hit -32 here at the house. That was easily the coldest temps I've ever felt. We won't be seeing anything like that tonight, but negative teens are still pretty impressive if we can do it. This is almost as exciting as a snow system LOL. Lets start posting cold air obs in the arctic outbreak thread. I already started posting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 5 °F as of 8 pm despite a sustained wind of 12 mph. I'm scared to see what happens when things decouple more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Pretty impressive! With plenty of winter to go so 40" seems quite doable. Who knows, if things really get crazy in Feb and March it's not out of the question you make 50". You have a good enough start that it's on the table. I feel pretty good about getting to 40. 50...eh, probably going to need a big dog or bigger dog. But that's probably the amazing part of this winter for here, not one event over 5" so far. We've nickeled n' dimed very efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 5 °F as of 8 pm despite a sustained wind of 12 mph. I'm scared to see what happens when things decouple more later. The bottom will fall out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Canceling a big storm is one thing (dont see how its logical, but I digress)...but to say "cancel winter" makes ZERO sense to me when this winter is the true definition of an "old-fashioned" winter. Snowflakes almost always in the air, snow on the ground, and nearly peristent cold. That is winter in every sense of the word. But it sounds like by winter you are STRICTLY talking snowfall (and discounting the below normal temperatures/above normal snowcover)..but even then...by every stat you look at, we are right on pace for an average season (if the backend predictions hold, an above average one). I understand that much, on the other hand this season had pretty much defied climo in every way possible, at least from a La Nina and national standpoint. Many places in the south are experiencing an above average snow season along with below average temperatures while the northeast SHOULD NOT be seeing this many coastals in a strong La Nina. Meanwhile, the predominate La Nina storms (Texas Panhandles) have virtually been nonexistent this season. And if we have seen them none of them have taken their typical tracks. We'll need another 23" to reach average out this way. Janaury looks to end off on a dry note, so we would need to get into some type of active pattern (or at least a big storm or two) in either February or March (on average they only total 16", and with April it's still only 18") to reach average at this point. Above average is completely out of reach unless we get into an anomalously snowy pattern. But like I said I'm not cancelling it yet, I'm going to wait and see how February plays out. All of that said, at Metro Airport we've finally nickled & dimed ourselves to average to January (11.9"), thanks to today's snow. We would need another clipper to actually place us safely above average for January. Granted, we're still making up for our below average November & slightly below average December. And even using your chart, we're still below average TO DATE about 5" for the entire season, I'm not sure how that paces us for an average season if what we've seen seeing so far continues through the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Getting a bit of -SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I understand that much, on the other hand this season had pretty much defied climo in every way possible, at least from a La Nina and national standpoint. Many places in the south are experiencing an above average snow season along with below average temperatures while the northeast SHOULD NOT be seeing this many coastals in a strong La Nina. Meanwhile, the predominate La Nina storms (Texas Panhandles) have virtually been nonexistent this season. And if we have seen them none of them have taken their typical tracks. We'll need another 23" to reach average out this way. Janaury looks to end off on a dry note, so we would need to get into some type of active pattern (or at least a big storm or two) in either February or March (on average they only total 16", and with April it's still only 18") to reach average at this point. Above average is completely out of reach unless we get into an anomalously snowy pattern. But like I said I'm not cancelling it yet, I'm going to wait and see how February plays out. All of that said, at Metro Airport we've finally nickled & dimed ourselves to average to January (11.9"), thanks to today's snow. We would need another clipper to actually place us safely above average for January. Granted, we're still making up for our below average November & slightly below average December. And even using your chart, we're still below average TO DATE about 5" for the entire season, I'm not sure how that paces us for an average season if what we've seen seeing so far continues through the next two months. When you said defying climo, I thought you meant here, not the nation as a whole. Will agree on that. This is NOT typical La Nina. Based on my prediction (from la nina research) in late summer/early Fall for the coming winter of 2010-11, SO FAR...I am 0 for 4 as we have seen ~Normal snowfall ~Below normal precip ~Constant snowcover ~Peristent below normal temps Note also...we have pretty much made up for November. 26" is the average at Jan 31st. The average thru Jan 20th is 22.1" at DTW. DTW sits at 21.2" as of 7pm, will be higher by the time the day is over. So essentially from a snowfall standpoint, we are normal. Todays sugar snow sure makes the old snow look fresh again. Took these late this afternoon when the sugar was just getting going: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting. Wondering if our low-ratio sugary powder pixie dust from the fringe of the OV snowstorm will translate to fluffy high ratio stuff with the arctic front? What are ratios there? Very high, eyeing it I would say 20:1 or so. Interestingly enough, the precip came off the lake in a fashion similar to a line of thunderstorms. For about 5 minutes, we had what seemed like 3 an hour rates and good snow for 30 or so minutes. The band rumbled off towards the rest of the state. How was it on your end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very high, eyeing it I would say 20:1 or so. Interestingly enough, the precip came off the lake in a fashion similar to a line of thunderstorms. For about 5 minutes, we had what seemed like 3 an hour rates and good snow for 30 or so minutes. The band rumbled off towards the rest of the state. How was it on your end? We have yet to see it lol. Have had nonstop pixie dust sugar snow since about 2pm, probably not quite an inch but close to it...but its basically 10-1 ratio sugar powder. Waiting the cold front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Pretty impressive! With plenty of winter to go so 40" seems quite doable. Who knows, if things really get crazy in Feb and March it's not out of the question you make 50". You have a good enough start that it's on the table. Agreed. I don't see how we don't make 40, and 50 or beyond is certainly on the table especially if there's a bigger storm at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thursday, January 20th: Hi: 21F Lo: 6F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 20MPH Rainfall: Trace Snowfall: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12 degrees here! Going to have to get below 5 degrees to get our coldest reading of the year. Doubt that happens but single digits for the 3rd time looks like a good possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 After the inch of sugar snow the arctic front probably dropped 0.2" of fluff, but the dark winter sky (pic below) made a nice contrast to the white snow for a few hours before the fronts passage. Close to 4" depth now but it looks SO much fresher with the new coat on the glacier. The top of the snow now glistens but you dont even sink down into the glacier, just crunch on top of it. And now you can smell the arctic as the dews head for 0F. Deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Crazy windy here with LES coming in. GRR didn't forecast but half an inch here and we have already picked up an inch and still going very strong. Crazy winds and everything but still pretty warm at 23 degrees. That -40 stuff is insane! I knew that would happen. As mentioned elsewhere GRR as per the norm put the highest stuff near/along the coast from Holland on north and not much of anything ( 1/2 to a inch ) to the south and east. In the open there is about 1.5 new on the ground but it was blowing so i am guessin maybe 2" fell here?? It was still going when i woke up at around 4am ( nice thin band sneaked in from the lake to here ) and then finally quit a little over a hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A brilliantly bright full moon in the western sky this morning when I got up at 7AM this morning. I probably should have snapped a photo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We're in pretty rarified air here in LAF. Today's 2.2" of snowfall puts us over 30" for the season to date. So I went back through my records of LAF/WL's snow history, which dates back to 1901, and looked at seasons that had 30" by the end of January. This season makes the 7th time it's happened. Hopefully we can continue our good fortune this winter. 30"+ totals through the end of January for each season: 1903-04: 36.1" 1914-15: 31.1" 1929-30: 37.6" 1977-78: 53.2" 1981-82: 37.7" 1983-84: 32.8" 2010-11: 30.3" To go along with this, the number of 6"+ storms in each of these seasons above, that happened by the end of January. 1903-04: 1 1914-15: 3 1929-30: 1 1977-78: 2 1981-82: 2 1983-84: 1 2010-11: 0 So obviously we're not done with this January yet, but this would be the first one to get to 30" in January and not have a 6"+ snow. The first one that happened in the 1903-04 season was 1/25-26...all the others had theirs "much earlier". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Woke up to -19.7F on my gauge... Clear skies and no wind out there... Not really that bad when I went outside in my thong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Milwaukee FINALLY went below 0F... Sitting at -4F at KMKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Woke up to -19.7F on my gauge... Clear skies and no wind out there... Not really that bad when I went outside in my thong. I'd give it a 50% chance that this actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I knew that would happen. As mentioned elsewhere GRR as per the norm put the highest stuff near/along the coast from Holland on north and not much of anything ( 1/2 to a inch ) to the south and east. In the open there is about 1.5 new on the ground but it was blowing so i am guessin maybe 2" fell here?? It was still going when i woke up at around 4am ( nice thin band sneaked in from the lake to here ) and then finally quit a little over a hour ago. Yeah, they said nothing south or east of K-zoo lol.....GRR has not been so hot this January with LES and LES related events. I remember at the beginning of the month, we were progged for 9 inches or so and got 2 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, they said nothing south or east of K-zoo lol.....GRR has not been so hot this January with LES and LES related events. I remember at the beginning of the month, we were progged for 9 inches or so and got 2 or 3. Forecasting this stuff here where i am i do admit is a bit of a challenge considering i am inland a bit and usually on the line. With THIS GRR has never been so hot with. Usually too much or too little. I as well think that like many others the problem is they get caught up in seasonal etc trends which is never a good thing when you let it overwhelm your reasoning/calls. See it here all the time and thus note those who who think every storm is gonna do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A brilliantly bright full moon in the western sky this morning when I got up at 7AM this morning. I probably should have snapped a photo... Only problem would of been standing still enough to get the photo without shaking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd give it a 50% chance that this actually happened. Maybe cracked the door enough to get a butt cheek outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gino regarding tonight and into tomorrow morning SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND LIKELY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND FORCING NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IT REALLY DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT SNOW WHEN ITS THIS COLD. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES FROM THE SFC TO 600MB ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE "SWEET ZONE" AS FAR AS SNOW FLAKE PRODUCTION GOES...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME NICE LOOKING...FLUFFY DRY SNOW GOING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gino's thoughts on the patern: THE NEXT WEEK OR SO IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND PRECIP LIKELY TO CONTINUE...THOUGH LESS BONE CHILLINGLY COLD THAN THIS MORNINGS TEMPS. return to the good old winters of the mid 90's cold and dry..while watching the EC boys get laced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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