Powerball Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well whoever's hoping for cold/dry your wish has been granted. I'll give it to February, then I'll probably cancel winter (at least when it comes to a big storm or average season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM slightly weakens the Friday clipper a little with each run. One run yesterday had a band of 0.2" across central Iowa, but this morning's 12z run is down to a thin 0.1" band and even that has shifted a bit sw of me. It's looking like a decent shot at an inch of snow, maybe two if we're lucky. Ratio's should be pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS thinks -15F tomorrow, while GFS says -29F... The battle is on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Long range fun... YEP I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS remains a disaster for the upper midwest and lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS remains a disaster for the upper midwest and lakes. Only hope for the UMW/GL is a over achieving clipper in the next 10 days and maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking a lot like last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS dropped the lows tonite...-19F now... GFS pops out a mind numbing -32F!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS remains a disaster for the upper midwest and lakes. Most of the models have that arctic sfc ridge in an ideal position for some sneaky easterly flow LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I've sort of lost interest in this winter. Seriously, I'm not a snow cover (nickel and dime) kind of snow geek so I'll take the mild 97/98 winter over this crap any day. And there is nothing in the extended of interest. I still I'm holding out for an interesting March in these parts though. Yeah, looks like it's going to be a while before there is real potential for a widespread big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking a lot like last winter... Funny how that works. If you plot the temps, the magnitude/coverage of the negative anomalies is probably more impressive this winter, but the location of the coldest anomalies is probably pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS dropped the lows tonite...-19F now... GFS pops out a mind numbing -32F!!! GFS saying -17 °F in Madison. Should be interesting to watch temps tonight. Not gonna take much cooling to get ridiculous, 15 °F as of noon with crystal clear skies, and should be clear overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On the zero watch. Tough call but I think we might fall a bit short tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 -13F in Intl Falls... 0F to my west in Rochester, MN... MSP at 1F... Still some clouds and 8F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12 °F and light snow here in Madison as of 5 pm. We're managing enough of a temp difference between the ground and upper-levels to generate some weak convection, more or less land effect snow. Crazy for temps being so cold at the surface imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On the zero watch. Tough call but I think we might fall a bit short tonight. Looks to be no problem in N.MN tonight. sheesh.. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 324 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 MNZ010-011-018-019-026-211030- /O.NEW.KDLH.EC.W.0001.110120T2200Z-110121T1600Z/ KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS- SOUTHERN ITASCA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY...BIGFORK... HIBBING...GRAND RAPIDS 324 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 ...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURE: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 40 BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. * FROSTBITE TIMES: FROSTBITE AFFECTS EXPOSED SKIN OF A HEALTHY ADULT IN 10 TO 20 MINUTES. THE ELDERLY AND YOUNG CHILDREN ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD. * IMPACTS: FROSTBITE CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. PETS AND LIVESTOCK ARE ALSO AFFECTED BY COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN EXTREME COLD WARNING MEANS DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE- THREATENING EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE LIKELY IN AS SHORT AS 10 TO 20 MINUTES IF YOU ARE EXPOSED TO THESE CONDITIONS WITHOUT PROPER PROTECTION. MAKE SURE YOU DRESS WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES DESIGNED FOR EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS... AND AVOID SWEATING IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AS THIS CAN LEAD TO A FASTER ONSET OF HYPOTHERMIA. brutal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My brother was up in International Falls late last December ice fishing. They went out in the morning and the temp was in the -30Fs...ended up getting frostbite on his face from exposed skin... Those type of temps are good for nothing...dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My brother was up in International Falls late last December ice fishing. They went out in the morning and the temp was in the -30Fs...ended up getting frostbite on his face from exposed skin... Those type of temps are good for nothing...dangerous. The ice on the Minnesota inland lakes is going to be crazy thick with the lack of any thaws this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Already down to 11 here. Had a few light snow showers pass over the last hour or so. There's quite a bit of blowing snow out in the open country. There's only about an inch or so of very dry fluff on top of the frozen crust, but it's whipping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Going to be an interesting night of watching the temps. The models vary quite a bit as to how cold we'll get. The NAM says only -5, GFS -8, and the RUC out to 5am says -12. The HRRR says near -20. I have no idea how accurate the HRRR is for forecasting temps, as I've never used it until tonight. If it's right and we were to get down to near -20 then it would win big points with me. I don't think we have a deep enough snow cover to get that cold with the winds not dropping off to calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hoping to get into the single digits with our little snow-cover. Snow has stopped and should be clearing up pretty soon. Would love to get too 9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.5F at the house... GFS still shows -30F.. I hope its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Going to be an interesting night of watching the temps. The models vary quite a bit as to how cold we'll get. The NAM says only -5, GFS -8, and the RUC out to 5am says -12. The HRRR says near -20. I have no idea how accurate the HRRR is for forecasting temps, as I've never used it until tonight. If it's right and we were to get down to near -20 then it would win big points with me. I don't think we have a deep enough snow cover to get that cold with the winds not dropping off to calm. It is already -9 in southern MN--I think you can bet against the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We're in pretty rarified air here in LAF. Today's 2.2" of snowfall puts us over 30" for the season to date. So I went back through my records of LAF/WL's snow history, which dates back to 1901, and looked at seasons that had 30" by the end of January. This season makes the 7th time it's happened. Hopefully we can continue our good fortune this winter. 30"+ totals through the end of January for each season: 1903-04: 36.1" 1914-15: 31.1" 1929-30: 37.6" 1977-78: 53.2" 1981-82: 37.7" 1983-84: 32.8" 2010-11: 30.3" And just for kicks, the top 10 snowiest seasons in the LAF/WL area since 1901: 1) 68.1"...1977-78 2) 61.5"...1981-82 3) 56.4"...1904-05 4) 53.8"...1903-04 5) 49.3"...1983-84 6) 47.8"...2007-08 7) 46.3"...1929-30 8) 43.8"...1911-12 9) 43.0"...1925-26 10) 40.2"...1905-06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 -12 now...winds calm, clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 -12 now...winds calm, clear skies. Arctic outbreak finally--for one night haha. At least it finally came--kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Arctic outbreak finally--for one night haha. At least it finally came--kinda. MPX has my area down to -20 tonight...could go lower unless the waa & clouds move in faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 MPX has my area down to -20 tonight...could go lower unless the waa & clouds move in faster than forecast. You should have no problem hitting -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Crazy windy here with LES coming in. GRR didn't forecast but half an inch here and we have already picked up an inch and still going very strong. Crazy winds and everything but still pretty warm at 23 degrees. That -40 stuff is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I love the last sentence in the NWS Wind Chill Advisories: IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. I don't think NE IN makes zero tonight, maybe 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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