2Slick Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like Fridays storm is another miss for CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDeal Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When I left my house at 8:30 AM it was 14 degrees with a sleet / freezing rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seems like a snow/sleet mix here now and 19F. Underwhelming event so far.... I do see that the 12Z NAM is is nailing the same people that got the big snowstorm a week ago. Track seems fine for us, but doesn't bomb until the last minute so NE gets it. Hey it's only the NAM, but this is typical for this winter. incredible really.....even when the pattern changes..... every single storm heads towards new york and then gets shoved SE off new england and south of nova scotia......its just mind-numbing. todays storms may be the best example yet of fail- and there have been so so many. i used to think payback for 07-08....but i dont think so anymore....this is bordering on absurdity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18F with sleet here. Precip is light. When it picks up, flakes mix in. I think we have about 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just want my first warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Similiar here...mostly flakes now as its heavier. But no more than .2" qpf so far. This looks like another bust way too high for model qpf...looking at upstream radar. I think we need to take the NAM qpf this winter and go with about 1/3rd of what it says. 18F with sleet here. Precip is light. When it picks up, flakes mix in. I think we have about 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 meh, 2002-2003 was similar to this and we ended up getting a big storm around February 22nd yeah i wasnt here that year. anyways, my #1 interest is snowpack, so as long as we dont melt and add slowly, it doesnt bother me to not get a big storm.....but the persistence of the storm track is amazing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seems like a snow/sleet mix here now and 19F. Underwhelming event so far.... I do see that the 12Z NAM is is nailing the same people that got the big snowstorm a week ago. Track seems fine for us, but doesn't bomb until the last minute so NE gets it. Hey it's only the NAM, but this is typical for this winter. yeah i wouldnt bet against this track. who would? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sleet mixing in here now................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah it's kind of crazy because I thought when we had this kind of reload of the cold air and the blocking was reduced the coastal plain would be more likely to go to rain. I thought the greater fear would be that a storm would cut inand. yeah i wouldnt bet against this track. who would? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's mostly a function of intensity, but somehow you did a a lot better with qpf than we did down here. At best .2" total qpf here so far.... Sleet mixing in here now................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sleet line right at GFL looking at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 A good amount of sleet but huge parachutes continue to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 All sleet now................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just to keep all the N/C/W NY snow weenies interested in Friday/Sat.'s event, the 12z experimental CRAS (which has had a couple of "wins" over the last hundred runs ) show a pretty significant HV runner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Back to mostly snow............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just to keep all the N/C/W NY snow weenies interested in Friday/Sat.'s event, the 12z experimental CRAS (which has had a couple of "wins" over the last hundred runs ) show a pretty significant HV runner: Too bad the chances of that verifying are practically nil. I'm thinking the best snows will be from Chicago to Toronto before jumping over Ottawa and Montreal and giving New England and Boston another incredible storm. That's been the pattern the past year and i see no reason to believe any change is in the offing. At least it'll be cold. It felt quite bracing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 As usual the models are fighting on track, amplification and amount of phasing on a storm. One thing the Models agree on is the fact this will be a very fast moving storm Friday. I think the storm will end up phasing. It will be Just too late for most of us....Bad for CNY and points west....Good if you're in New England. One thing to watch will be the ridging out west. The Canadian is being fairly aggressive with the ridging; the UKMET that that much. The EURO seems to be lost in the pattern; it's showing a couple of storms; The first looks to be a New England storm and the second is a wide miss and out to sea. The NAM and GFS like the Hudson Valley; bringing them a moderate snowstorm. Most if not all of us will see snow out of this..Just not near enough for some of us. After the Friday event, starting Friday night and thru the weekend the cold will be brutal and we will have a weak clipper move through.....Looking ahead a bit, It looks like the dismal season will continue for us on the Tug....The good news is we still have a lot of winter left...And the Cold looks to hang around well into February; so time is still on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah it's kind of crazy because I thought when we had this kind of reload of the cold air and the blocking was reduced the coastal plain would be more likely to go to rain. I thought the greater fear would be that a storm would cut inand. It really does look like we are locked into a snow drought pattern up here. It's kind of bemusing that so many Americans see Canada as the Great White North. You guys often get more snow than us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As usual the models are fighting on track, amplification and amount of phasing on a storm. One thing the Models agree on is the fact this will be a very fast moving storm Friday. I think the storm will end up phasing. It will be Just too late for most of us....Bad for CNY and points west....Good if you're in New England. One thing to watch will be the ridging out west. The Canadian is being fairly aggressive with the ridging; the UKMET that that much. The EURO seems to be lost in the pattern; it's showing a couple of storms; The first looks to be a New England storm and the second is a wide miss and out to sea. The NAM and GFS like the Hudson Valley; bringing them a moderate snowstorm. Most if not all of us will see snow out of this..Just not near enough for some of us. After the Friday event, starting Friday night and thru the weekend the cold will be brutal and we will have a weak clipper move through.....Looking ahead a bit, It looks like the dismal season will continue for us on the Tug....The good news is we still have a lot of winter left...And the Cold looks to hang around well into February; so time is still on our side. Do you think Ottawa will see anything from the Friday storm - say 2"? You were dead on with your prediction for today. In fact, I think we'll be lucky to see an inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's look like this today's storm might verify but on the low end of the scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just want my first warning event. That's a good point. We haven't had a single snowfall or winter storm warning here this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Do you think Ottawa will see anything from the Friday storm - say 2"? You were dead on with your prediction for today. In fact, I think we'll be lucky to see an inch! The Friday storm will give you a better potential for snow than today's system...But it's too early to talk amounts yet. But yes, I think you will see some snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Too bad the chances of that verifying are practically nil. I'm thinking the best snows will be from Chicago to Toronto before jumping over Ottawa and Montreal and giving New England and Boston another incredible storm. That's been the pattern the past year and i see no reason to believe any change is in the offing. At least it'll be cold. It felt quite bracing yesterday. While I agree, it shows that we need the N. stream to dig pretty deep into the S. plains...so it "gives" us a road map to look for changes into the more reliable model suites....NAM was close a few runs ago, but has siince backed off. Need our neighbors to the north to cash in on a solid EC storm now that we've broken the synoptic cherry with a clipper!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 It really does look like we are locked into a snow drought pattern up here. It's kind of bemusing that so many Americans see Canada as the Great White North. You guys often get more snow than us! That is very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 43F lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The weekend forecast doesnt look as brutally cold as it was a couple days ago also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 impressive warming http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSLK.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As much as sleet keeps trying to overwhelm here, the snow keeps fighting back. Have gone from total SN to total PL and every ratio in between in the past 90 min. Closing in on :snowman: :snowman: ...................back down to Saratoga- Albany soon to enjoy the freezing rain fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i think that would be the best case scenario we will be able to tell on radar tomorrow, look for the best precip to setup NW of ottawa and just kid of hang out there very slowly moving towards ottawa but never really getting there until it weakens many hours later......trapped between 2 storms. same deal here in montreal, except we will be keeping more of an eye on the southern storm....that has a bit better chance of getting some more juice up this way for 2+ inches, abut also a greater chance here of getting nothing out of this entirely. for ottawa, this is a case where along the river will have a better chance than south ottawa, and kanata has a better chance than orleans.....hopefully everyone if it setsup as modeled, it will be light precip on and off over the course of 2 days, so its unlikely to accmulate too much....but EC should be able to record something.... things have pretty much transpired as expected. snow has setup NW of ottawa and SE of quebec (from the coastal) as expected, and held there all day....this band NW of ottawa will slowly sink SE and weaken..... thus, ottawa's chances for some snow with this event will increase this evening going into tonight and early tomorrow......light snow, light accums, maybe an inch or so pretty much as advertised. SREFs and hi res models really nailed the mid level drying in eastern ontario and SW quebec between the 2 systems....for days and days, one of the most consistent signals ive ever seen. 6+ inches of snow will fall to our north, west, south and east. impressive fail-job. as for the friday event, up here, i expect very little snow (IF ANY!). best case perhaps up to 2 inches in montreal but likely less in ottawa.....unless there are some significant changes in the oritentation, depth and speed of the trough. tbh, our best chance for accumalting snow is if the northern stream dominates and delivers a clipper to the region......possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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