wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nam is wetter but warmish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks sleety , but not above freezing rainy Nam is wetter but warmish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think that matches up well with the current radar depiction/ movement. This will probably get in here faster tonight also (at least aloft) as the warmer tongue usually is pushing north quicker than the models think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep, the pings usually come well before the models forecast. If the warm air arrives any faster than the NAM, Albany will see very little snow before a changeover to sleet. The 850 0C line trucks on north pretty quickly in this run. BTW, I have a feeling that you guys are going to be in the sweet spot for this one. I hope the warm tongue doesn't get up to you. I think that matches up well with the current radar depiction/ movement. This will probably get in here faster tonight also (at least aloft) as the warmer tongue usually is pushing north quicker than the models think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I tend to think it mixes with sleet at times here, but intensity of the precip. is the key. Heavier = more snow as it can overcome the wedge of +0C air and the lighter periods = more PL. So if the NAM qpf of 1" verified I don't care if 25% of it is sleet. LOL I'm hoping we get freezing drizzle tomorrow night after the main area of precipitation has exited to cap it so it can't drift. I'm weary of endlessly clearing the same paths, etc. as they drift back in. Looks sleety , but not above freezing rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep, the pings usually come well before the models forecast. If the warm air arrives any faster than the NAM, Albany will see very little snow before a changeover to sleet. The 850 0C line trucks on north pretty quickly in this run. BTW, I have a feeling that you guys are going to be in the sweet spot for this one. I hope the warm tongue doesn't get up to you. If the NAM is correct it will get north of here also for several hours before collapsing south again. What are you going to do? The old saying is you have to be close enough smell the rain to get the best snow. Anything is better than to have crazy N/S bands of snow set up just east of you and robbing the intensity of your precip for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was getting tired of being 25 miles from the edge of no precipitation the last few storms.... So this will be a change anyway. If the NAM is correct it will get north of here also for several hours before collapsing south again. What are you going to do? The old saying is you have to be close enough smell the rain to get the best snow. Anything is better than to have crazy N/S bands of snow set up just east of you and robbing the intensity of your precip for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was getting tired of being 25 miles from the edge of no precipitation the last few storms.... So this will be a change anyway. Judging on what's coming north with the heavy echos moving onshore from NC to DE.................this may come in like a wall later tonight so I am cautiously optimistic of a pretty good thumping going on by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree. This one definitely has good bust high potential. Being a teacher.....and having kids....I'm wondering what the schools will do tomorrow. There shouldn't be much in the early morning when the kids go to school, but it might get hairy later. Early dismissal or will the fear of the WSW cause closings? Looking forward to the 0Z data and model runs. From what I'm seeing on the radar/station obs/0z RUC guidance, snow should begin in Albany around 4 a.m. or maybe even sooner. RUC is indicating moderate snowfall rates around 11-16z. Am new to the area, so I don't know how tough or soft the school districts tend to be ... but it looks like it should be snowing in the CD before sunrise. Might be enough to call for delays and then as the snow ratchets up in intensity...closings. Btw, just a brief comment on the TV mets here. It's one hell of a bunch. I am impressed with the knowledge and enthusiasm that the mets on all the stations have. On that note, Bob Kovachik had the snow starting in ALB between 3 and 6 a.m.. I think Steve LaPointe said around 4 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes sir, just what I needed to see following a tough loss in Pittsburgh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm almost certain this is a snow day for all school districts around the CD because the timing is perfect. The forecast has it continuing until evening so there is no hope of the road crews getting ahead of it. Furthermore the forecast of possible ice scares them right into closing. This area out here (Duanesburg CS) is very tough, but this is the kind of event that will close them also no doubt. From what I'm seeing on the radar/station obs/0z RUC guidance, snow should begin in Albany around 4 a.m. or maybe even sooner. RUC is indicating moderate snowfall rates around 11-16z. Am new to the area, so I don't know how tough or soft the school districts tend to be ... but it looks like it should be snowing in the CD before sunrise. Might be enough to call for delays and then as the snow ratchets up in intensity...closings. Btw, just a brief comment on the TV mets here. It's one hell of a bunch. I am impressed with the knowledge and enthusiasm that the mets on all the stations have. On that note, Bob Kovachik had the snow starting in ALB between 3 and 6 a.m.. I think Steve LaPointe said around 4 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes sir, just what I needed to see following a tough loss in Pittsburgh... Yeah, what an insane game!!! Will be great to see KJ back soon!!!!! I'm still riding high on my Stillers.....and since Ben was there, might as well give one to Pitt to keep the MoJo goin'....but as an SU fan of course, they stunk the first 10 min. of the game....hole to big really. If they even had held then to a 10-0 run, then proceeded to go on their 17-0 run, we'd been in much better position, at least mentally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Oh, BTW, go check out the SREF's! They look pretty good too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep great tv met. departments at all the ALB stations. As far as the chief mets go ...Steve Caporizzo and Steve LaPaointe have been on air since around 1989-90 (give or take) and Bob Kovachik came on in April 1977. I was a wx geek kid then and I even remember his predecessor Bob Gordon who was just a weatherman. I think Bob K. was the first degreed met. in the market. From what I'm seeing on the radar/station obs/0z RUC guidance, snow should begin in Albany around 4 a.m. or maybe even sooner. RUC is indicating moderate snowfall rates around 11-16z. Am new to the area, so I don't know how tough or soft the school districts tend to be ... but it looks like it should be snowing in the CD before sunrise. Might be enough to call for delays and then as the snow ratchets up in intensity...closings. Btw, just a brief comment on the TV mets here. It's one hell of a bunch. I am impressed with the knowledge and enthusiasm that the mets on all the stations have. On that note, Bob Kovachik had the snow starting in ALB between 3 and 6 a.m.. I think Steve LaPointe said around 4 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Warm Advection start time rule in effect. Subtract 3 hours from models precip start time????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes sir, just what I needed to see following a tough loss in Pittsburgh... lol I'll just miss out....again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Finally got my current conditions working. -2F at Ottawa airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Extrapolate the NAM and I think it also is a good quick hitting snowstorm for Friday. Probably more like the GGEM. The GFS is trending that way I think. A tale of two snow events... This first one largely derived from the thermal boundary along the coast that spins of the coastal wave - away from the best upper dynamics with the northern stream low...until they eventually effect a phase up northeast of us. The the late week one a more dynamically induced wave as the arctic air comes in, phasing with the southern vort. That one is a quick hit, but maybe someone gets a foot + in the best band. Ratios could be stellar.. Loga, I agree on all points except for the extrapolation of the NAM! LOL Nice map Andy. I've been trying to imagine what a good map would like for this storm and it made my head hurt. When I saw your map, I thought THAT"S IT! Good luck. Thanks, geek! My head is aching too =========== Before I head in I looked at data and am thinking that ZR north of Albany and SVT less likely. Maybe some pockets of ZL tonight after the brunt of the storm moves through. Sleet still a concern. I'll look at the mesomodel soundings for DDH, GFL when I get into work. They tend to be good on storms where p-type is a concern. As for Friday as logan mentioned: I'm liking the threat better and better...possible snow ratios of 18:1 if not 20:1 or more. Could also be a "sneaky" moderate to rapid deepener too. Later folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Loga, I agree on all points except for the extrapolation of the NAM! LOL Thanks, geek! My head is aching too =========== Before I head in I looked at data and am thinking that ZR north of Albany and SVT less likely. Maybe some pockets of ZL tonight after the brunt of the storm moves through. Sleet still a concern. I'll look at the mesomodel soundings for DDH, GFL when I get into work. They tend to be good on storms where p-type is a concern. As for Friday as logan mentioned: I'm liking the threat better and better...possible snow ratios of 18:1 if not 20:1 or more. Could also be a "sneaky" moderate to rapid deepener too. Later folks... Bullish on accums compared to the competitors..................I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2" of snow/sleet, just turned to 100% sleet. Flirting with freezing already at 31.1°, but my thermometer(s) are not in the greatest location for daytime temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 14.4F and just turned to a mix of sleet/freezing rain here in Latham. That happened sooner than expected. I'm hoping we can flip back to snow or a snow/sleet mix to keep accumulations up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 14.4F and just turned to a mix of sleet/freezing rain here in Latham. That happened sooner than expected. I'm hoping we can flip back to snow or a snow/sleet mix to keep accumulations up. same here. with these lighter echoes thats probably what will happen. its back to light snow here snow with some sleet mixed in though. If we can stay in the heavier echoes we might be able to pull of a snow/sleet mix for the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 same here. with these lighter echoes thats probably what will happen. its back to light snow here snow with some sleet mixed in though. If we can stay in the heavier echoes we might be able to pull of a snow/sleet mix for the next couple hours. The snow has mixed back in here so there is hope for you guys. Most of the heavier radar echoes are headed out of here so not much chance of much additional accumulation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Stayed all snow here 3 inches and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol I'll just miss out....again!! incredible really.....even when the pattern changes..... every single storm heads towards new york and then gets shoved SE off new england and south of nova scotia......its just mind-numbing. todays storms may be the best example yet of fail- and there have been so so many. i used to think payback for 07-08....but i dont think so anymore....this is bordering on absurdity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 :snowman: :snowman: S+............................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 incredible really.....even when the pattern changes..... every single storm heads towards new york and then gets shoved SE off new england and south of nova scotia......its just mind-numbing. todays storms may be the best example yet of fail- and there have been so so many. i used to think payback for 07-08....but i dont think so anymore....this is bordering on absurdity! meh, 2002-2003 was similar to this and we ended up getting a big storm around February 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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