Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yeah 12z/ jan 13 euro is much colder than the GFS even the initial storm to the west doesnt bring in much warm air then a big seoncdary bombs away along the coast moderate precip east of a syraucuse-ottawa line >0.5 heavy precip along the HV > 1 west of syracuse is precip mainly from the western low and lighter amounts with that <0.5 id say it pretty much all frozen precip for everyone based on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks like 18z gfs went a little east , surface holds strong as the storm starts out west..Most likely it would be snow-ice or close to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z UK looks like a CC: of the 12z EC, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What say the JMA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Euro ens. mean is extremely tight with it's parent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What say the JMA ? Sheared out mess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I must say that I'm hyped about the pattern over the next couple of weeks. Possible storm followed by arctic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I must say that I'm hyped about the pattern over the next couple of weeks. Possible storm followed by arctic cold. I am hopeful, but really tired of everything south getting all the good stuff. I would love to see the clipper dump a foot from Albany north... I know there are two chances of that happening, slim and none..... And slim left town. I am also hoping as Andy has stated that winter is young yet and our turn is coming!!! here's to Hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here are my preliminary thoughts for this weekend's Clipper and next week's threat(s). Min T's are one concern over next D+7 as cloud cover at night will be an issue. Tonight is tricky as some clearing possible early followed by inc. clouds overnite and developing W and SW flow. Went with large ranges near: 10 ALB...down to zero east and slightly below that north as I believe clouds will arrive these locations last. As for tomorrow a bit more moisture along with weak WAA. 09z SREFS have a lerge area of .1 for us 18z thru 05z time frame so up to an inch looks good. 1-3 northern Fulton Co to LG and SVT where some slight upslope enhancement on SW-S flow could occur. Also 09z SREF has a small .25 pocket over the 'Dacks too so may see a 4" lollipop or two especially if winds become more SW there. LES possibility W'rn MV north thru W'rn Dacks (Herk. Co) especially late tomorrow night into Sunday. may be a few inches 2-4 these areas, more on the Tug low end heavy (9-10") is what I would think for there. Tuesday storm still uncertain as I don't have a feel. Best consensus continues to be the following EC OP and UK (they are nearly identical) along with ECEN. Probably a long drawn out storm with bursts of precip...snow to start then a mix to sleet maybe some ZR Albany and west to Catskills-MV (even some rain perhaps south towards POU and SE to S'rn Berks) but probably either a wet snow and/or snow/sleet NW and N ( 'Dacks to GFL) I could envision precip slackening off some midday Tues then re-developing later in afternoon thru night probably mostly snow for most or mix changing to snow. Likely see periods of Snow Wed thru Fri with perhaps the snow on Thurs AM (deformation over us?) and Fri being a bit more extensive. Friday's snow tied to a wave moving up from the south along slowing/stalling polar front along or just offshore of the ECUS. EP is already salivating over Tuesday. ECEN and EC OP scream bitter Frigid air too for the end of next week and with extensive snowpack over the NEUS this may very well come to frution. The anomaly data of the GEFS for next Friday and Sat is nearing -2 SD's and the 06z run is trending colder by 2C at 850. During this time its shows T850 of -20 to -22c across the area. EC extend OPS is in the -18 to -20C range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here are my preliminary thoughts for this weekend's Clipper and next week's threat(s). Min T's are one concern over next D+7 as cloud cover at night will be an issue. Tonight is tricky as some clearing possible early followed by inc. clouds overnite and developing W and SW flow. Went with large ranges near: 10 ALB...down to zero east and slightly below that north as I believe clouds will arrive these locations last. As for tomorrow a bit more moisture along with weak WAA. 09z SREFS have a lerge area of .1 for us 18z thru 05z time frame so up to an inch looks good. 1-3 northern Fulton Co to LG and SVT where some slight upslope enhancement on SW-S flow could occur. Also 09z SREF has a small .25 pocket over the 'Dacks too so may see a 4" lollipop or two especially if winds become more SW there. LES possibility W'rn MV north thru W'rn Dacks (Herk. Co) especially late tomorrow night into Sunday. may be a few inches 2-4 these areas, more on the Tug low end heavy (9-10") is what I would think for there. Tuesday storm still uncertain as I don't have a feel. Best consensus continues to be the following EC OP and UK (they are nearly identical) along with ECEN. Probably a long drawn out storm with bursts of precip...snow to start then a mix to sleet maybe some ZR Albany and west to Catskills-MV (even some rain perhaps south towards POU and SE to S'rn Berks) but probably either a wet snow and/or snow/sleet NW and N ( 'Dacks to GFL) I could envision precip slackening off some midday Tues then re-developing later in afternoon thru night probably mostly snow for most or mix changing to snow. Likely see periods of Snow Wed thru Fri with perhaps the snow on Thurs AM (deformation over us?) and Fri being a bit more extensive. Friday's snow tied to a wave moving up from the south along slowing/stalling polar front along or just offshore of the ECUS. EP is already salivating over Tuesday. ECEN and EC OP scream bitter Frigid air too for the end of next week and with extensive snowpack over the NEUS this may very well come to frution. The anomaly data of the GEFS for next Friday and Sat is nearing -2 SD's and the 06z run is trending colder by 2C at 850. During this time its shows T850 of -20 to -22c across the area. EC extend OPS is in the -18 to -20C range. great write up Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ECEN and EC OP scream bitter Frigid air too for the end of next week and with extensive snowpack over the NEUS this may very well come to frution. The anomaly data of the GEFS for next Friday and Sat is nearing -2 SD's and the 06z run is trending colder by 2C at 850. During this time its shows T850 of -20 to -22c across the area. EC extend OPS is in the -18 to -20C range. Thanks for the write up. Will be at Gore late next week with my daughters for daughters ski free week. Still hoping for some more natural snow to get some of those glades open. Last year, same week, temps were below zero in the parking lot, colder on the mountain. Thank goodness for the gondola. Hoping the frigid temps hold off a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 We have so many threads for our area, I'm having trouble keeping up with all of them Hey Tornado Girl - we might get in on some of the action tomorrow night and Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 clipper looks solid tomorrow for many of us event on tuesday doesnt look as impressive (never was all that great), more of a northern stream/hybrid type mess now with a wave along the cold front to the east......probably as mix of ptypes for all of us, moderate event. maybe a polar front at the end of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 great write up Andy You're welcome. Thanks for the write up. Will be at Gore late next week with my daughters for daughters ski free week. Still hoping for some more natural snow to get some of those glades open. Last year, same week, temps were below zero in the parking lot, colder on the mountain. Thank goodness for the gondola. Hoping the frigid temps hold off a day. You're welcome, too. Have fun up at Gore next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Andy,nice write up.I am wondering a few things on this upcoming mess (Tues-Thurs) Just thinking out loud here, I know it's way early, but any thoughts on this being a problem Ice storm for some? I am hoping ~Saratoga-North can keep it snow/sleet but we will see. It look's like timing is going to be everything for this storm. have a good day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Hazards Assessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 PRECIP WILL INITIALLY START AS SNOW. ENSEMBLEAPPROACH SUGGESTS THE 850MB ZERO LINE ARRIVES TOWARD THE I90 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE COULD REMAIN CHILLY FOR AN INTERESTING WINTRY MIXTURE...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. FOR THE DACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW /PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET IF SOME OF THOSE WARMER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO VERIFY/. NOW...SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE DOES EXIST THAT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME DISRUPTED AND LEAVE THE ENTIRE COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE /IE NO RAIN OR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/. THIS STORM WILL DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANGING BACKTOWARD SNOW AND/OR FZRA...THEN EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. DEFORMATION/TROWAL AXIS COULD LINGER WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 So far, the Tuesday / Wednesday storm looks to be Mix...Start out as SN Then switch over to RASN and maybe FZRN antd then ending up as SN. it will come down to timing and intensity of the falling precip. Still don't know how the High will move east or the strength of the Low. The NAO will have a lot to say about this... so far things are very sketchy hopefully sometime this weekend we will get a handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Andy,nice write up.I am wondering a few things on this upcoming mess (Tues-Thurs) Just thinking out loud here, I know it's way early, but any thoughts on this being a problem Ice storm for some? I am hoping ~Saratoga-North can keep it snow/sleet but we will see. It look's like timing is going to be everything for this storm. have a good day!!! To be honest it is just too early too tell if it will be a problem as far as ice goes. As of right now while I think ZR will occur with this system I do not see it as being a major icestorm. Have a good day yourself (what's left of it) and a good weekend, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just a quick thought ....Tuesday's event will probably be a mix and match potpourri as far as models go. That is, one model maybe good wrt to tracks of lows and placement of pressure features and upper-air features, while others will be better as far as thermal profiles go. Once again IMO the NAM may be the model of choice for the latter vs GFS and the other globals. Ageostrophic N and/or NE flow will also be key, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Not the most reliable model, but the 6z DGEX FWIW dealt atleast a decent glancing blow to C & E NY Wednesday Evening / Night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GEFS is a coastal hugger http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GEFS is a coastal hugger http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif interesting since its the smoothed mean, im guessing there are individual members that are much more emphasis north of the lakes with a single primary vs a secondary off the coast, and thats why we see such an impressive average reflection on the coast that 'looks' like a coastal?.......i could be wrong, but thats my guess. hopefully im wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Not the most reliable model, but the 6z DGEX FWIW dealt atleast a decent glancing blow to C & E NY Wednesday Evening / Night... So are you saying that this won't happen or even though the DGEX is not a reliable it will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 After the Tuesday threat the next IMO potentially even bigger threat is next Friday. MIGHT be similar to this past Wednesday's system. A lot of support from various ensemble sets and individual members of ensembles plus pattern-recognition and additional data sources (indices, "hovey" data, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the event at the end of the week is gaining more of my attention.....IF the cold air comes in like its forecast to do so, i would expect some sort of impactful signal event leading in, whether its a squall line front or more widespread event. midweek event still looking rather disorganized at this time, but could a trend a bit better at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 After the Tuesday threat the next IMO potentially even bigger threat is next Friday. MIGHT be similar to this past Wednesday's system. A lot of support from various ensemble sets and individual members of ensembles plus pattern-recognition and additional data sources (indices, "hovey" data, etc) hah you beat me to it lol good to see i have your blessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the event at the end of the week is gaining more of my attention.....IF the cold air comes in like its forecast to do so, i would expect some sort of impactful signal event leading in, whether its a squall line front or more widespread event. midweek event still looking rather disorganized at this time, but could a trend a bit better at this range. Wow, isi t possible that we could have something that both you and I have been pining for, i.e. a snow event with an arctic surge to follow with rapidly falling temperatures and ground blizzards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow, isi t possible that we could have something that both you and I have been pining for, i.e. a snow event with an arctic surge to follow with rapidly falling temperatures and ground blizzards? that would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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