A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 GRR sounds exited about this one. Besides no major events, it has sure been a nice few days here. Get 2-3 inches of snow, day off, another 2-3 inches and so on. I'd be jazzed if there was a west-flow LES event in the wake of this event. Regardless, nice stretch of winter here and nice to build the snowpack. Haven't seen you around much, enjoying college? Back OT GRR seems to be the most excited of the offices in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NOGAPS FWIW <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 3-4 days away from impact and we are clueless. Mine as well be 1900.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z GFS has about .55" qpf for ORD anyone want to tell me what the 12z euro had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z GFS has about .55" qpf for ORD anyone want to tell me what the 12z euro had? .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This loop is like eye-candy. Watch the three upper lows form across the central/eastern Pacific. http://www.atmos.was....cgi?sat_500+12 The models are having issues for a reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Local mets are saying "shovelable snow" Monday into Tuesday.... I guess we will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The models are having issues for a reason... These low pressures look so strong offshore. Why do they tend to break apart when they hit land. Is it the same reason why hurricanes weaken when they get over land? Do the mountains out west shear them apart? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Local mets are saying "shovelable snow" Monday into Tuesday.... I guess we will see... Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Who? who cares? potential exists.....I suspect it will be our areas biggest general snowfall of the year. Enjoy. Afterward pattern will relax dramatically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 These low pressures look so strong offshore. Why do they tend to break apart when they hit land. Is it the same reason why hurricanes weaken when they get over land? Do the mountains out west shear them apart? Just curious Most of the storms off-shore right now over the Pacific are "mature" systems and already occluded. One thing about baroclinic systems over the ocean is the coefficient of friction over water is MUCH lower than land. Therefore occluded systems keep a cyclonic circulation much longer than they would otherwise over land. Once these mature systems reach land, they are quickly "torn" apart by the increasing friction, especially if that land is mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z NAM is bringing a nice stripe of WAA snow from OAX to DSM to ORD to IN/MI border on sunday with a 1004mb sfc low south of CDS at 78hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z NAM is bringing a nice stripe of WAA snow from OAX to DSM to ORD to IN/MI border on sunday with a 1004mb sfc low south of CDS at 78hrs. yeah so this this going to be 2 seperate systems or what?? looks like a solid 2-4 inches for that part..but more after 84hours? with another piece moving in from the west as the first systems slows down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The GFS is painting near freezing temps for the early part of the week as this storm approaches. Sounds like we may get a mixed precipitation scenario here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z NAM is bringing a nice stripe of WAA snow from OAX to DSM to ORD to IN/MI border on sunday with a 1004mb sfc low south of CDS at 78hrs. overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is interesting..given this WAA snow is going to have nice ratios there could be a nice 3-6" stripe if this were to verify. And then you have the main show trying to organize in the southern plains at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is interesting..given this WAA snow is going to have nice ratios there could be a nice 3-6" stripe if this were to verify. At this stage of the game I wouldn't give the NAM too much consideration at 84 hours in this type of flow pattern we are in. It is going to do very poorly because a lot of the weather systems are currently outside of its own domain (the GFS initializes the NAM outer boundary conditions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 At this stage of the game I wouldn't give the NAM too much consideration at 84 hours in this type of flow pattern we are in. It is going to do very poorly because a lot of the weather systems are currently outside of its own domain (the GFS initializes the NAM outer boundary conditions). that being said, looks like the nam would be attempting to go for a more classic pan handle hooker...chicago special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 yeah so this this going to be 2 seperate systems or what?? looks like a solid 2-4 inches for that part..but more after 84hours? with another piece moving in from the west as the first systems slows down It looks like its associated with an embedded wave in the flow as you can see here but its also WAA precip from the developing sfc low in the TX PH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 At this stage of the game I wouldn't give the NAM too much consideration at 84 hours in this type of flow pattern we are in. It is going to do very poorly because a lot of the weather systems are currently outside of its own domain (the GFS initializes the NAM outer boundary conditions). I know but its the weenie in me that gets too excited to not mention it lol. I'm curious to see what the GFS shows with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I know but its the weenie in me that gets too excited to not mention it lol. I'm curious to see what the GFS shows with this setup. Yeah I understand. Also one suggestion, when you post NCEP maps, and a number of them at once, stick with the small or medium because the large ones take up a lot of space and can clutter the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I know but its the weenie in me that gets too excited to not mention it lol. I'm curious to see what the GFS shows with this setup. that's what she said.... ....sorry, just watched an office episode earlier, couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I know but its the weenie in me that gets too excited to not mention it lol. I'm curious to see what the GFS shows with this setup. I believe it has shown a WAA pattern south of Chicago for the last several runs....just don't trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think by 00z Sunday will get start to get some good model agreement. Next 48hrs will be interesting to see if we can get a phased southern storm to track up the OV. Anyone hear Skilling tonight? I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I have seen this pattern all kinds of times, and if it works out anywhere like I think it will, there should be a heavy band of overrunning precipitation (freezing rain) from Southern Illinois into Central Indiana and Northeast into Western and Northwestern Ohio. I'd be cautious with the models forecasting the front thump of WAA snow. They almost always overdo the front end WAA snow dump, just my .02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think by 00z Sunday will get start to get some good model agreement. Next 48hrs will be interesting to see if we can get a phased southern storm to track up the OV. Anyone hear Skilling tonight? I missed it. no mention of Sunday snow...needs to be monitored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I have seen this pattern all kinds of times, and if it works out anywhere like I think it will, there should be a heavy band of overrunning precipitation (freezing rain) from Southern Illinois into Central Indiana and Northeast into Western and Northwestern Ohio. I'd be cautious with the models forecasting the front thump of WAA snow. They almost always overdo the front end WAA snow dump, just my .02. Ya the nam is especially bad at overdoing WAA precipitation during the winter i've been in plenty of storms that end up under producing usually due to dry air eating away at most of the leading edge of the precip and just waiting for the radar to finally fill in as the profile finally saturates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS looks much better this run. The leading wave isn't a big pile of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nice hit for WI/MI/MN. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nice hit for WI/MI/MN. Lock it in. I'll pass on that low track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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