Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That's why i think Henry's thought that i posted is interesting. No model shows his scenerio so he seems to be going against them attm. Joe Bistardi thinks the stronger low this time will be the western low which cuts somewhere between central Ohio and marked just east of Pittsburgh for that track and for a secondary to form off the coast but won't be a big deal for the eastern weenies because of the western low being stronger. He pin pointed the Ohio Valley as a heavy snow axix FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS looks pretty close to the EURO. I think we can score one for the EURO again, depending on if this pans out in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS is a very good hit for Chicago btw. Slow moving system, with a wide area of lt-mod precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm liking all this antecedent cold air in place. Feels like even a cutter could produce some fun & games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS looking good at 96hrs..quite different from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS tells STL to enjoy the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS is a very good hit for Chicago btw. Slow moving system, with a wide area of lt-mod precip. not alot of heavy precip but with it being slow moving its looking dump atleast a half inch of liquid, if not more. really nice sfc low track for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Snows in Chicago from HR 90 until HR 129. Good 36+ hours of off and on lt snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This is the 18z gfs but the track of the low is decent but still warm air is working pretty far north of the low which I think is an error. Folks north of the low will likely see ice then snow... Just my thought right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm liking all this antecedent cold air in place. Feels like even a cutter could produce some fun & games. Agree...now that it's mid-January, we can count on that a bit more than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If this thing can get its act together things are gonna get very cold. Madison is projected to get down to -12 °F in the wake of this thing on the 12z GFS, even though it's just a mess. I bet sub -20 °F temps are easily possible if it's more coherent, maybe temps around -30 °F if it bombs. But that likely won't happen of course. Agree...and the models have been going back-and-forth for the past 4-5 days on the arctic air invasion. There is a lot of potential for a bitterly cold arctic dump...but we'll have to see if it can be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This is the 18z gfs but the track of the low is decent but still warm air is working pretty far north of the low which I think is an error. Folks north of the low will likely see ice then snow... Just my thought right now... Maybe..the low is coming out of the NW, not the SW..so the flow is not ESE or E, ENE..its S. So it will be easier for Warm Air to get north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 not to be greedy but if we could get that sfc low to turn more northeast as it nears indy, northeast IL would be golden. great run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nothing earth shattering, but I'd take it and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 a track a bit more south and east would be good... This is more in line to whats going to happen just the track needs to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 us weenies can always count on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 a track a bit more south and east would be good... This is more in line to whats going to happen just the track needs to be worked out. Any reason why? Or are you just being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Does the low merge with the first low thats in the south? Or is that precip in the south just frontal precip from this low coming east from nebraska. GFS although looking different in the early stages, ends up with a consistent low track through NE ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Snow to ice to snow for LAF on the 18z GFS. Edit: maybe a period of plain rain too. Surface temps are borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 not to be greedy but if we could get that sfc low to turn more northeast as it nears indy, northeast IL would be golden. great run for here. The GFS has spit out some nice looking low tracks today, this one doesn't start as south as the others but still takes the 850 low ona real nice track for this area, something around hr 144 classic. I'll have to temper expectations until the Euro plays ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Any reason why? Or are you just being a He's just saying what would be ideal for hby, not forecasting such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 lol @ the pathetic agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nothing earth shattering, but I'd take it and like it. Building up a great snowpack ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 FWIW 18z GFS en mean not that far off from the 12z ECM en mean with a more dominant and less amplified northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Snow to ice to snow for LAF on the 18z GFS. Edit: maybe a period of plain rain too. Surface temps are borderline. 18z GFS withstanding, I've resigned myself to a kitchen sink type storm for us. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS withstanding, I've resigned myself to a kitchen sink type storm for us. Could be interesting. I still think set up screams ice storm potential, even if we hover around 32 for a while, with extremely cold surface temperatures things could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I still think set up screams ice storm potential, even if we hover around 32 for a while, with extremely cold surface temperatures things could get ugly. Certainly is a possibility. Lots to sort out in the next several days. Plus, Hoosier likes him some ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NOGAPS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GRR sounds exited about this one. Besides no major events, it has sure been a nice few days here. Get 2-3 inches of snow, day off, another 2-3 inches and so on. I'd be jazzed if there was a west-flow LES event in the wake of this event. Regardless, nice stretch of winter here and nice to build the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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