Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 East coast low gets down to about 984 on top of Boston. Looks like a general .25-.3 qpf or so in WI/S. MN/IA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 loll at hr 138 has a sub 990 low on LI. Looks like some backend snows for philly/nyc and them on the east coast. That would be 3 strong lows on the east coast this season (if it were to verify) I'll try and get QPF totals in a second. If there truly is a god in this universe we wont see another eastcoast bomb/storm the rest of this damn winter. Sorry but it is time for them to end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Harry, do you by any chance of the QPF totals? If so, could you share them for the region? Thanks in advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looking at the MOS data most folks souther of I 70 are too warm for snow/ice.... For the cities its again too warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Harry, do you by any chance of the QPF totals? If so, could you share them for the region? Thanks in advanced. With which system? This one, .25 to .50 for most out this way north of i70. Less to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Where is the cold air? The 2m temps have consistently been to warm on all the models eventhough the 540 and 850's are too high.... You would think with the snowcover those 2m temps would be a bit lower. as long as there is a low over the lakes, it will be a messy set up at best, and probably a fairly weak one for us too. GFS is the only model showing that big slug of moisture coming up the OV from the gulf out in front of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thanks, that's what I thought (probably in the .3-.35 range maybe) How about for the clipper on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 does the 0c line reach buf on the euro for Tuesday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thanks, that's what I thought (probably in the .3-.35 range maybe) How about for the clipper on Friday? .10 to .25 along and north of i80 from Toledo to Chicago and .25 to .50 from near Grand Rapids on north in MI and Nw.WI/N.MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice, MI should cash in well with this clipper. Probably a good 2-4 maybe isolated 5 inch amounts somewhere, and then another good hit on this storm. You guys deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice, MI should cash in well with this clipper. Probably a good 2-4 maybe isolated 5 inch amounts somewhere, and then another good hit on this storm. You guys deserve it. Especially in Central and NE Michigan including the eastern U.P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Gotta love how it does that with NO blocking. Anything is possible ofcourse but i find that highly unlikely unless there is some blocking/blocker. nugget from the HPC extended discussion BEFORE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES WHICHSHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE STORM TRACK/UPPER TROUGH SETS UP FARTHER WEST THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX WEEKS...WHICH COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE JANUARY THAW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 so teh euro says the GEM and GFS are to cold. Doesn't look much warmer to me..just drier in the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sounds like IND is concerned with mixing only for their far south cwa. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 320 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL MODELS MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUR WAY AROUND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH BETWEEN MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 993 TO 1003 MB SURFACE LOW...EUROPEAN 1004 MB AND CANADIAN 1010 MB. AT TIME SEE LITTLE REASON TO DIFFER WITH POPS. BUT MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO GO A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH MODELS. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS ONE STRONGER MODELS...THEY SHOW QUITE A BIT MORE COOLING AFTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY. GIVEN MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SNOW COVER WILL LOWER HPC TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND WEDNESDAY. BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS MEX MOS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER DAY 6 AND DAY 7 AND WILL KEEP GRIDS DRY FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sounds like IND is concerned with mixing only for their far south cwa. I'm concerned for the entire area. Believe all precip types are on the table with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm concerned for the entire area. Believe all precip types are on the table with this one. Yeah I am even concerned about the potential up here, I think the odds of mixing aren't great but they aren't 0 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It may be taxing on the pc, but if anyone wants to see the mess in the Pacific, here is a nice 24 hour loop. http://www.atmos.was...op.cgi?ir+/24h/ If that is too taxing on the pc, here is a single image. http://www.atmos.was...wxloop.cgi?ir+1 Impressive slop - quite the train of storms to say the least. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 when the quad cities are this meh about an event you have to wonder FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH TIMING OFA FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT. MOST LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ROUGHLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER THIS 24-36 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL RISK OF FLURRIES AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MINS TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES WITH CLOUDS TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS. ..NICHOLS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 H.M. thoughts today on this storm. 2. A more significant snow event may develop Sunday and Monday from Illinois into PA/NY as a storm gathers strength across the South. The warm front will set up along the Ohio River, and just north of that front, there will be a band of moderate to heavy snow. As I always say, watch where the thunderstorms develop and move north over the warm front, and that's where the heaviest snows will occur. Right now, that areas looks like from Indy to Columbus. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44343/swath-of-snow-from-the-plains-to-the-northeast.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 H.M. thoughts today on this storm. http://www.accuweath...e-northeast.asp :arrowhead: :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 when the quad cities are this meh about an event you have to wonder Kinda makes sense IF they are thinking this misses them to the east for the most part? I do admit i would like to see one consolidated low vs say.. The crap the euro showed. Here is GRR take on it. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MERGE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS THAT PRODUCES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT THE GENERAL INDICATION IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOMEWHERE NEAR TOL WHICH IS AN IDEAL PATH FOR HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE GRR CWA. THIS ONE OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING AS THE SNOW APPEARS TO LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 430 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WENT CLOSER TO ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM UP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT THURSDAY. GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW MEX GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. BIGGEST VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE IS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN MODELS INDICATE IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Kinda makes sense IF they are thinking this misses them to the east for the most part? I do admit i would like to see one consolidated low vs say.. The crap the euro showed. Here is GRR take on it. Sure, that office always seems to sniff out big ones that's all. For an event with people as far north as michigan worrying about rain, they don't sound impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Does Toronto look good right now for all snow and maybe some ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ILN Not a horrible write up. I think we need to clean it out and what I mean by that is getting these little clippers out of the way. No model has a good handle on the track and strength of the storm for next week. Its very wishy washy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not a horrible write up. I think we need to clean it out and what I mean by that is getting these little clippers out of the way. No model has a good handle on the track and strength of the storm for next weekIts very wishy washy right now. That's why i think Henry's thought that i posted is interesting. No model shows his scenerio so he seems to be going against them attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 336 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011 .DISCUSSION... /325 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011/ MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH MO IL AHEAD OF A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SWRN WI. ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE CWA TGT...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TGT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WILL GO ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOW COVER...AND SINCE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LAST NGTS MINS WAS A LITTLE TOO WARM. MORE CLOUDS WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI AND FRI NGT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FRI AFTN AND NGT WITH MEASURABLE SNOW AGAIN REMAINING N OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT UP TO THE FREEZING MARK FRI AFTN MAINLY S OF I-70. A WEAKENING CDFNT WILL DROP SWD THROUGH THE CWA ON SAT...WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SAT NGT BEHIND THE CDFNT... ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPENCY WITH AMOUNT OF COOLING WITH THE GFS MOS MUCH COOLER FOR SAT NGT THAN THE NAM MOS. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE NOW GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WAA OVER THE WEAK FRONT WHICH THEY FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER CNTRL MO. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A STRONGER SFC RIDGE FOR SAT NGT WHICH DRIVES THE CDFNT FURTHER SWD AND HENCE KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION S OF THE CWA ON SUN. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON SUN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR MON THROUGH TUE THEY ALL SEEM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY MON AFTN AND NGT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE SERN PORTION MAY BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW AT LEAST INITIALLY ON MON INTO MON EVNG. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT AS A STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS SEWD THROUGH MO IL BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING CDFNT. GKS Once again, they are saying, we have some idea that it should be cold enough for winter precip, outside of that, lets pull scenarios out of a hat. cleary the big picture id modeled well, but small details like vort placement and strength is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 LOT THIRD DISTURBANCE TO BE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING E OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT. DURATION AND AGAIN FAIRLY STRONG WAA AND ASSOCIATED UVV MAY END UP PRODUCING A FEW MORE INCHES. WITH SFC LOW TRACK PREDICTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND THIS WILL GIVE THE IL SIDE OF THE LAKE A THREAT OF LES TIL LOW MOVES FURTHER E AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SHIFTING LES THREAT ACROSS NW IND AND INTO N CENTRAL IND AND SW LOWER MI BY LATER TUE MORNING. either way I love the pattern were STILL in, even though we haven't had a big event here yet, dont mind these 2-4" events more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z gfs threw 72 is completely diff then the 12z gfs and I think looks more like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If this thing can get its act together things are gonna get very cold. Madison is projected to get down to -12 °F in the wake of this thing on the 12z GFS, even though it's just a mess. I bet sub -20 °F temps are easily possible if it's more coherent, maybe temps around -30 °F if it bombs. But that likely won't happen of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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