Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If even a moderate intensity wave disturbance aloft managed to pass through the northern Rockies with the incoming jet streak and the cold air spilling through the canadian prairies, it would get interesting fast. Right now a pretty low probability event, but I wouldn't say something more extreme than the current 12z GFS op is unlikely. nicely said, and all that can really be said at this point, will be interesting to watch and hopefully we can get something better than what we have got lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 YES if you are under that convection when the snow is falling. The issue is convection on the warm side of the storm and not in where the cold/wintry precip is falling. Right, I know what you are saying. I probably should not have used that direct example. But the discussion as a whole is a good example that there are no definitives in meteorology, e.g., convection robs moisture, cold air means high snow ratios, etc. Going straight back to the latest KU bomb yesterday, convection not only forced extreme pressure falls, but the convective band was fed directly into the ageo active portion of the jet streak with a large portion wrapping back into the storm. I am not disputing what you are saying, just saying it can go both ways. I have seen convection decrease precipitation potential as well depending on the setup. You can see the leading convection along the cold front rising isentropically to fill the void left by the mass amounts of divergence with the increasingly active jet as the tropopause fold passed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Right, I know what you are saying. I probably should not have used that direct example. But the discussion as a whole is a good example that there are no definitives in meteorology, e.g., convection robs moisture, cold air means high snow ratios, etc. Going straight back to the latest KU bomb yesterday, convection not only forced extreme pressure falls, but the convective band was fed directly into the ageo active portion of the jet streak with a large portion wrapping back into the storm and the deformation band. I am not disputing what you are saying, just saying it can go both ways. I have seen convection decrease precipitation potential as well depending on the setup. You can see the leading edge of convection developing into the defo band on WV. Oh i agree with that. BTW i would have found a system from this side of the apps to use as a example because obviously having that huge moisture supplier ( The Atlantic Ocean ) right next to them helps a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Agree...although I don't really like where I sit with this one. Gut feeling...This has that snow/rain/mix feel to it in my backyard (a far northern IL/WI/MI special). Disclaimer: Obviously this is not a forecast as doing so this far in advance is pointless I think your in good position. I would rather see something some what unorganized giving most everyone some winter, then a wrapped up torch that kills everyone's snow and hits Iowa to Green Bay. but that seems extremely un-likely. Does anyone have the Ukmet after 72 hours? Like Precip and temp maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It may be taxing on the pc, but if anyone wants to see the mess in the Pacific, here is a nice 24 hour loop. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir+/24h/ If that is too taxing on the pc, here is a single image. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Bah, so much spread amongst the guidance. Have a nice clipper system on the way to keep me entertained. Going to worry more about this storm on the weekend after some of the phasing issues have been worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Right, I know what you are saying. I probably should not have used that direct example. But the discussion as a whole is a good example that there are no definitives in meteorology, e.g., convection robs moisture, cold air means high snow ratios, etc. Going straight back to the latest KU bomb yesterday, convection not only forced extreme pressure falls, but the convective band was fed directly into the ageo active portion of the jet streak with a large portion wrapping back into the storm. I am not disputing what you are saying, just saying it can go both ways. I have seen convection decrease precipitation potential as well depending on the setup. You can see the leading convection along the cold front rising isentropically to fill the void left by the mass amounts of divergence with the increasingly active jet as the tropopause fold passed east. yeah thats a great example, i was up watching the whole thing unfold and the instability line fed directly into the CCB very impressive! i think ORH has a post about it dissecting all that went down, in the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wait and see mode like some others have said. I'd probably rather be a little farther north but this could still work here. I'd be foolish to write it off with how we've weaseled our way into several moderate events this winter, although this setup is unlike many we have seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Bah, so much spread amongst the guidance. Have a nice clipper system on the way to keep me entertained. Going to worry more about this storm on the weekend after some of the phasing issues have been worked out. good plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 It may be taxing on the pc, but if anyone wants to see the mess in the Pacific, here is a nice 24 hour loop. http://www.atmos.was...op.cgi?ir+/24h/ If that is too taxing on the pc, here is a single image. http://www.atmos.was...wxloop.cgi?ir+1 same storm bringing the pain to Hawaii? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Euro seems MUCH colder at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EURO so far looks a lot like the 0z euro from last night. It's a bit colder, not sure how that will play out though. Through 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EURO so far looks a lot like the 0z euro from last night. It's a bit colder, not sure how that will play out though. Through 78 hrs. I know this is different thread but probably better location for the initial clipper as a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yup, clipper is farther south and a tad stronger as well. Decent snows in MI. It strengthens to slow for a big event here though. Through hr 90 now, Sub 1004 low in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wait and see mode like some others have said. I'd probably rather be a little farther north but this could still work here. I'd be foolish to write it off with how we've weaseled our way into several moderate events this winter, although this setup is unlike many we have seen so far. Does look like we'll be close to either side of the system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 96 has a sub 1004 low in NE Nebraska. LT precip in IA/MN/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 same storm bringing the pain to Hawaii? Yeah thats it--that ridge out W is progged to expand significantly. Some beefy low level warm advection and decent 925 temps out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 102 has a sub 1004 low in central IA. LT-MOD precip in NE IA, SE MN, SW WI. LT precip across WI, IA, MO, and KS. Sub 1012 low in the LA area fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wait and see mode like some others have said. I'd probably rather be a little farther north but this could still work here. I'd be foolish to write it off with how we've weaseled our way into several moderate events this winter, although this setup is unlike many we have seen so far. It looks to me that we may get into a nice west to east band of 3-6 inches running along and north of I70 before the southern storm takes hold and warms us up. The op gfs has shown a nice band of snow quite a few runs in a row through 120 hours...But its still all up in the air. Like you said maybe we can weasel a decent snow out before to much warm air pours in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 108 has a sub 1004 low in NE IA. 12z HR 120 had the low in WI. LT-MOD precip across S/C WI, NW IL, NE IA. LT precip across rest of WI, IL, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 114 has a 1004 low right around Chi-Town. LT-MOD precip in E. WI, E. IL, E. IND, W. MI, LT precip across WI, IL, MO, OH, MI, E. IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 120 has a general 1008 low (not sure where it is, probably either in MI or IND) LT-MOD precip in S. IND and NE MI. LT precip across E. WI, E. IL, IND, MI, OH. Huge east coast storm setting up it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 120 has a general 1008 low (not sure where it is, probably either in MI or IND) LT-MOD precip in S. IND and NE MI. LT precip across E. WI, E. IL, IND, MI, OH. Huge east coast storm setting up it looks like. lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 euro equals a total mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 126 has a general 1008 low. LT precip in MI, IND, OH. Sub 1000 low on the east coast, but temps look a tad too warm for them (probably a rain storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 lock it in Gotta love how it does that with NO blocking. Anything is possible ofcourse but i find that highly unlikely unless there is some blocking/blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HR 132 has LT precip across IND and OH. Sub 996 low just east of philly, but the 0c line is a tad to the west of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 loll at hr 138 has a sub 990 low on LI. Looks like some backend snows for philly/nyc and them on the east coast. That would be 3 strong lows on the east coast this season (if it were to verify) I'll try and get QPF totals in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Where is the cold air? The 2m temps have consistently been to warm on all the models eventhough the 540 and 850's are too high.... You would think with the snowcover those 2m temps would be a bit lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah thats it--that ridge out W is progged to expand significantly. Some beefy low level warm advection and decent 925 temps out there. that’s a pretty nice map, easy to see why the Hawaii radar has been lit up like a Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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