weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 No GGEM/UKMET maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFS with a classic deep south moisture block. yes with the decently strong sfc low you would expect more precip back in the cold air around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yes with the decently strong sfc low you would expect more precip back in the cold air around here. He/She is saying the moisture is being blocked to the south robbing moisture for the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=108¶meter=PWATIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah the problem is the phasing is a big issue and I have seen this plenty of times. To early so there is a lot of upper air corrections to made in the next 3 days but would be surprised if this turns into a Indy to Cleveland special and stripe of 6-12 inches across parts of IA, WI, N IL, MI with 12+ along NE IL/SE WI. This looks to be a similar set up to Dec 11th, 2000 where Chicago saw 10-15 minutes. This is me being snow weenie and hype but hey I was right with LES event in Chicago. lets try to shy away from bold calls this far out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 He/She is saying the moisture is being blocked to the south robbing moisture for the cold sector. thats what Im saying...given the moisture blocking your not getting decent snow in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well if new 12z GGEM is out it looks split and zonal givving us a brief period of WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Block? To me it looks like the gulf opens right up for this system, might want to look at 850/700 mb maps. The 700 mb maps are hardly impressive with the flow shunted east of the LP and with a lame pos. tilt trough, that's going to happen. The persistent junk running west/east across KY/TN and the rest of the south, isn't going to help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 He/She is saying the moisture is being blocked to the south robbing moisture for the cold sector. VIA what looks like convection down in WV, KY, TN etc. Usually the crap that robs us of bigger snowstorms in these parts. Not saying they happen either. In short what we want or should i say PREFER for a big snow storm is for there to be NO convection down south. Personally i would feel a bit better if the flow was backed to the south a bit more ( more south vs sw ) as well ahead of the low. Even better if *something* could capture it when it gets to near Toledo. Decent system as is but nothing out of the ordinary at this point but it could be if a few of those things were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 700 mb maps are hardly impressive with the flow shunted east of the LP and with a lame pos. tilt trough, that's going to happen. The persistent junk running west/east across KY/TN and the rest of the south, isn't going to help either. Read my mind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looking at 850 temps, 700mb RH, and 300mb, the Ukmet will iniitally send moisture north into cold..like the nam/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I haven't been really keeping track, but look at the spread of the 06Z GFS at only 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I haven't been really keeping track, but look at the spread of the 06Z GFS at only 108. It;'s 3-4 days out from starting and we have no clue what will happen. starting to come together but so messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Read my mind.. One of the QC mets (I believe) has mentioned a study multiple times that more or less went on to say convection to the south can actually help northward moisture transport when it’s oriented more N/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 I haven't been really keeping track, but look at the spread of the 06Z GFS at only 108. pretty terrible, i wonder if 12z is different, since we've had 3 op runs now favoring more of a southern thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It;'s 3-4 days out from starting and we have no clue what will happen. starting to come together but so messed up. All guidance having issues with the strength and organization of the incoming west coast upper level wave pattern. I think the mass difference in solutions arise from small differences in wave amplitude. Given the vortex in canada and cold air waiting to spill south, it won't take much of a wave to incite rapid cyclogenesis. Weatherguru was getting a little excited, but some of his thoughts are not out to lunch regarding an "explosion", although I would not have used that word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 One of the QC mets (I believe) has mentioned a study multiple times that more or less went on to say convection to the south can actually help northward moisture transport when it’s oriented more N/S. Yep, it is when convection is oriented perpendicular to the low lvl flow is when we struggle with moisture transport north of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 All guidance having issues with the strength and organization of the incoming west coast upper level wave pattern. I think the mass difference in solutions arise from small differences in wave amplitude. Given the vortex in canada and cold air waiting to spill south, it won't take much of a wave to incite rapid cyclogenesis. Weatherguru was getting a little excited, but some of his thoughts are not out to lunch regarding an "explosion", although I would not have used that word. Well said. I'm thinking we will get a pretty good cyclone out of this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If even a moderate intensity wave disturbance aloft managed to pass through the northern Rockies with the incoming jet streak and the cold air spilling through the canadian prairies, it would get interesting fast. Right now a pretty low probability event, but I wouldn't say something more extreme than the current 12z GFS op is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well said. I'm thinking we will get a pretty good cyclone out of this mess. It will be an interesting forecast. This is a good example of the type of forecast where latching on to any one solution or model is not prudent just yet. The reality is, under this scenario, there is no way any model or human can say with certainty what type of wave pattern will be in place as that jet streak ejects into the plains. Even a trend amongst the op run GFS means little to me right now--we saw with the east coast bomb that the GFS can trend wrong through the entire event with the overall solution--although this is an entirely different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If even a moderate intensity wave disturbance aloft managed to pass through the northern Rockies with the incoming jet streak and the cold air spilling through the canadian prairies, it would get interesting fast. Right now a pretty low probability event, but I wouldn't say something more extreme than the current 12z GFS op is unlikely. Yeah there is an awful lot of energy diving into that trough there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Instability, didn't you comment on how thunderstorms can help or inhibit the cold sector snow totals as regards to robbing moisture. You said something about the orientation of the storms, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 One of the QC mets (I believe) has mentioned a study multiple times that more or less went on to say convection to the south can actually help northward moisture transport when it’s oriented more N/S. I recall that. Last winter ( maybe winter before? ) i do believe. Well said. I'm thinking we will get a pretty good cyclone out of this mess. Gotta like where we sit with this one. NO -nao to suppress this thing and or help turn it into a miller b/transfer to coast type thing. Nice little blocker ahead of it to help keep it from going to far west either even if it does bomb. Ofcourse now that i said that something will pop up out of nowhere and mess that up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It will be an interesting forecast. This is a good example of the type of forecast where latching on to any one solution or model is not prudent just yet. The reality is, under this scenario, there is no way any model or human can say with certainty what type of wave pattern will be in place as that jet streak ejects into the plains. Even a trend amongst the op run GFS means little to me right now--we saw with the east coast bomb that the GFS can trend wrong through the entire event with the overall solution--although this is an entirely different setup. Not just the weather enthusiast on this message board, but even professionals I work with, look too much into or base too much of their forecast on individual model solutions and model QPF. Pattern recognition and climo FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 looking at the 12z mean, i think there's still going to be a ton of variability amongst the members, maybe with a slight nod towards the 0z euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Instability, didn't you comment on how thunderstorms can help or inhibit the cold sector snow totals as regards to robbing moisture. You said something about the orientation of the storms, correct? I don't know if you are referencing me here, but yeah, as others said in here, it totally depends on the orientation of wave pattern and the general storm setup. Convection doesn't always hurt synoptic storms, and quite often, can aid in rapid development as well as moisture feeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't know if you are referencing me here, but yeah, as others said in here, it totally depends on the orientation of wave pattern and the general storm setup. Convection doesn't always hurt synoptic storms, and quite often, can aid in rapid development as well as moisture feeds. Expanding on that topic, convection can lead to even more non-linear baroclinic development and positive feedback (convection enhances the synoptic development--which then enhances convection etc etc). It is typical in in marine cyclogenesis, and it was on full display with the latest east coast bomb/KU. Superstorm 1993 was an uber example of everything coming together perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Expanding on that topic, convection can lead to even more non-linear baroclinic development and positive feedback (convection enhances the synoptic development--which then enhances convection etc etc). It is typical in in marine cyclogenesis, and it was on full display with the latest east coast bomb/KU. Superstorm 1993 was an uber example of everything coming together perfectly. YES if you are under that convection when the snow is falling. The issue is convection on the warm side of the storm and not in where the cold/wintry precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Gotta like where we sit with this one. NO -nao to suppress this thing and or help turn it into a miller b/transfer to coast type thing. Nice little blocker ahead of it to help keep it from going to far west either even if it does bomb. Ofcourse now that i said that something will pop up out of nowhere and mess that up.. Agree...although I don't really like where I sit with this one. Gut feeling...This has that snow/rain/mix feel to it in my backyard (a far northern IL/WI/MI special). Disclaimer: Obviously this is not a forecast as doing so this far in advance is pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z ensemble spread, needless to say, large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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