snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yep...I am concerned about a sloppy mix event here in northern IN. You could miss out on the slop over your way even if a farther northwest solution verifies given a possible coastal transfer limiting low level WAA. Guidance is keying in on different energy within the longwave trough so who knows what will happen. At least we have something to follow. Thanks for your thoughts. I noticed a lot of those members try to collapse the 850 0c line, which is some indication of CAD, but without that coastal it's tougher to do. One thing I do like is that even the warmer GEFS are depicting a strong baroclinic zone setting up further south then what we saw for a lot of the December storms. Not only is that an ingridient for a big storm, but considering we've got sub -20c 850 temps dropping down as far south as northern Lk Michigan on some of the members by around 90 hours, it makes me think they're dislodging the cold air too quickly. Here's hoping the 6z OP GFS track with some beefed up QPF verifies. Then we both win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 euro kinda confirms that sloppy warm look like the gfs has. I just have never had good feeling with next weeks prospect for our area. I see two ways it goes down. Either it stays as a convoluted mess of weak lows that allows the warm air to work north and give us some kind of slop to rain...or....it phases and a stronger low heads up over us or just west of us giving us rain. *insert yawn smiley* DISCLAIMER: The above post is my sole view concerning next weeks event. Under no circumstances should it be construed as a complaint or whine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice to see my thread chugging along. Looks like things have trended a little more interesting but I'm on a phone and don't feel like diving into models too much until I get to my computer. I see a lot of folks worried. Right now I doubt it cuts west enough to give me rain and if it does scoot north, I doubt it's very strong, so no torch. I still favor an ohio valley low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 euro kinda confirms that sloppy warm look like the gfs has. I just have never had good feeling with next weeks prospect for our area. I see two ways it goes down. Either it stays as a convoluted mess of weak lows that allows the warm air to work north and give us some kind of slop to rain...or....it phases and a stronger low heads up over us or just west of us giving us rain. *insert yawn smiley* DISCLAIMER: The above post is my sole view concerning next weeks event. Under no circumstances should it be construed as a complaint or whine. I'm not sold that it will be that easy for the warmth to spread this far north. There is a large snowpack across the US. Maybe one of the mets can chime in... but do the models take into account snowpack? You would think this would lead to a more southern solution and limit WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm not sold that it will be that easy for the warmth to spread this far north. There is a large snowpack across the US. Maybe one of the mets can chime in... but do the models take into account snowpack? You would think this would lead to a more southern solution and limit WAA. i do like the idea of possible WAA front dump, i think that's very plausible, especially i-80 south in ohio. But I also think a changeover seems likely as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice to see my thread chugging along. Looks like things have trended a little more interesting but I'm on a phone and don't feel like diving into models too much until I get to my computer. I see a lot of folks worried. Right now I doubt it cuts west enough to give me rain and if it does scoot north, I doubt it's very strong, so no torch. I still favor an ohio valley low. I like where you guys are sitting right now. This reeks of a nice hit for Chicago. The AO is trending positive around ths period, which is perfect for everyone when combined with a NAO/+NAO. So we can pretty much rule out a fully supressed storm and bet on some type of cutter, but I'm sure this won't be a MSP special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yes fully agreed, and I am not wishing other regions to do crappy with a storm threat so my own region scores. I know NEOH didn't mean that literally though--nor would it bother me if he did--it has just become annoying and honestly quite old reading the same comment about MSP "scoring" over and over again. Take out one anomalous storm and the region is at or below normal. As mentioned in another thread, the past decade of poor winters for MSP/southern MN has become the new "norm", and a lot of folks are surprised that MN actually does average a decent amount of synoptic snowfall per year. Let's squash that belief here right now. I certainly wasn't saying that I hope other regions do poorly. My post was a little too specific. I was implying that I would prefer a favorable storm track for areas that have NOT had a significant synoptic system this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yes fully agreed, and I am not wishing other regions to do crappy with a storm threat so my own region scores. I know NEOH didn't mean that literally though--nor would it bother me if he did--it has just become annoying and honestly quite old reading the same comment about MSP "scoring" over and over again. Take out one anomalous storm and the region is at or below normal. As mentioned in another thread, the past decade of poor winters for MSP/southern MN has become the new "norm", and a lot of folks are surprised that MN actually does average a decent amount of synoptic snowfall per year. Let's squash that belief here right now. I suppose that all stems from the fact that MSP does in fact see far more anamolous storms (e.g. Blizzard Warnings and 10"+ers) than areas to the SE. The Detroit to Toronto (and maybe Chicago) corridor is the perfect example of an area that's long overdue for an anamolous storm, even though they've had several top 10 snowy winters this decade. No matter what the general pattern is, MSP always manages to pick up a big storm every season (even last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nah climo in Jan favors a eastern Lakes cutter. I'd worry if it was early December then it could really blow up into the NW Lakes but think this could be a Quads, Madison, Milwauckee, Chicago special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....6/fp0_120.shtml Wow if this fully phases and deepens someone gonna get hammered with this system. Looks healthy and ready to blow up. Just having phasing issues whitch is expected this early. Geeze and if this does end up being a Lakes cutter (eastern that is) I bet the Lake is certaintly ready again to ehance/effect Chicago yet again for 3rd time in like 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the 0c line stops right over me lol reminds me of a storm we had back in 07 where there was snow/rain mix on southern tier,snow/sleet on buffalo and snow over Niagara falls/Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I already see LES potential for Chicago. I smell a December 11th, 2000 special if this can fully phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 I like where you guys are sitting right now. This reeks of a nice hit for Chicago. The AO is trending positive around ths period, which is perfect for everyone when combined with a NAO/+NAO. So we can pretty much rule out a fully supressed storm and bet on some type of cutter, but I'm sure this won't be a MSP special. I’m really just starting to sift through things but there are things to like. We’re about to enter the range where the Euro should start zoning in, so that’s something to watch because right w it’s marching to its own beat. On the plus side, there is pretty decent agreement on the 0/6z GFS ensembles considering that we’re talking 130+hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah the problem is the phasing is a big issue and I have seen this plenty of times. To early so there is a lot of upper air corrections to made in the next 3 days but would be surprised if this turns into a Indy to Cleveland special and stripe of 6-12 inches across parts of IA, WI, N IL, MI with 12+ along NE IL/SE WI. This looks to be a similar set up to Dec 11th, 2000 where Chicago saw 10-15 minutes. This is me being snow weenie and hype but hey I was right with LES event in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah the problem is the phasing is a big issue and I have seen this plenty of times. To early so there is a lot of upper air corrections to made in the next 3 days but would be surprised if this turns into a Indy to Cleveland special and stripe of 6-12 inches across parts of IA, WI, N IL, MI with 12+ along NE IL/SE WI. This looks to be a similar set up to Dec 11th, 2000 where Chicago saw 10-15 minutes. This is me being snow weenie and hype but hey I was right with LES event in Chicago. You love the bold call, 12+ 130+hrs out, talk about calling your shots. Can’t say as I’m board yet, when the Euro starts showing anything close to a cutter and stops bowling a low north of us, I’ll reconsider, right now, way too many options still on the table. Hopefully we’ll get a met to chime in later and knock the hype down before this place turns into vienna beef factory full of Chicago weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You love the bold call, 12+ 130+hrs out, talk about calling your shots. Can’t say as I’m board yet, when the Euro starts showing anything close to a cutter and stops bowling a low north of us, I’ll reconsider, right now, way too many options still on the table. Hopefully we’ll get a met to chime in later and knock the hype down before this place turns into vienna beef factory full of Chicago weenies. I love vienna beef hotdogs. Mmmm hungry. Yeah I am being weenie this far out but I kinda get the general idea of what might happen. Looks like some minor issues like phasing because if this fully phases this is gonna be a great major winter storm. Looks like GRR and DTX hit this pretty good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 I love vienna beef hotdogs. Mmmm hungry. Yeah I am being weenie this far out but I kinda get the general idea of what might happen. Looks like some minor issues like phasing because if this fully phases this is gonna be a great major winter storm. Looks like GRR and DTX hit this pretty good today. I haven't browsed the different discussion yet, and i guess you could call the GFS's phase issues minor, but they're pretty major on other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 believe me it could be sheared out into the Altantic and be a lot worse. At least we have something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 believe me it could be sheared out into the Altantic and be a lot worse. At least we have something going. Sure, i did start the thread after all. LOT sounds pretty meh and is leaning towards the Euro. FORECAST BECOMES VERY FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DIVERGENCE ANDINCONSISTENCIES. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST GO ALONG WITH CONSALL GRIDS. THESE SEEM TO SUPPORT LATEST NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST DEVELOPING A SRN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY AFFECT THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...00Z EUROPEAN AMPLIFIES THE MEAN TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...SWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING STAYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST GOING WITH THE EUROPEAN SCENARIO...THUS WILL NOT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN FAVORING WETTER SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY AT THIS DISTANCE...AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS IN DAYS 5-7...WITH TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sure, i did start the thread after all. LOT sounds pretty meh and is leaning towards the Euro. I have rarely seen LOT bullish on a system this far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I have rarely seen LOT bullish on a system this far out . hmmm.. strongly disagree with that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFS with a classic deep south moisture block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well I am pretty confident a solution like the 12z GFS wont verify but I get the general idea we are gonna get a storm to explode up the eastern Lakes/OV in the next 48-72hrs. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_114.shtml This is a classic setup for a major snowstorm eyeballing Quads, Chicago, Milwauckee, Madison, Rockford, Grand Rapids and even Detroit area. Strong artic air with H building in the upper Midwest and southern-wave hollering to get phased and turn this into a IA/WI/IL/MI special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well I am pretty confident a solution like the 12z GFS wont verify but I get the general idea we are gonna get a storm to explode up the eastern Lakes/OV in the next 48-72hrs. http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_114.shtml This is a classic setup for a major snowstorm eyeballing Quads, Chicago, Milwauckee, Madison, Rockford, Grand Rapids and even Detroit area. Strong artic air with H building in the upper Midwest and southern-wave hollering to get phased and turn this into a IA/WI/IL/MI special. We're talking about an event 120hrs out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 We're talking about an event 120hrs out? Yeah you will see. Wait until Saturday or Sunday. I am saying in the time range models will get this storm exploding future in its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah you will see. Wait until Saturday or Sunday. I am saying in the time range models will get this storm exploding future in its range. ah ok, my bad. Also edited the thread title to reflect slightly quicker timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 They better come up with a lot more vort energy if they are going to "explode" this system. I am not sure what you are seeing, the 300mb jet isn't that great for a very deep closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFS with a classic deep south moisture block. Block? To me it looks like the gulf opens right up for this system, might want to look at 850/700 mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I know you mentioned Bowling Ball...we shall see....i think blocking relaxes to allow something to cut.....on a more SW/NE basis...should wash all Ohioans snow out ala New Years weekend step by step... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 They better come up with a lot more vort energy if they are going to "explode" this system. I am not sure what you are seeing, the 300mb jet isn't that great for a very deep closed low. Well I meant a more organized system here. I think will see a nice NE to SW snow band NW of the storm track from Northern MO to Northern Michigan. The 300mb jet isant all that great yet because it's in its intial phase right now of developing in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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