BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 LOT.. http://www.crh.noaa....FD&issuedby=lot SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW APPEARSLIKELY MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTSNORTH WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STAYING ALL SNOW IS GREATEST. SOMEADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE DEFORMATION AXISCROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...STILL ROOM FOR CHANGES WITH THEPARENT TROUGH JUST NOW ONSHORE. Also GIno had a nice write up this morning about the meso low in the middle of the lake.. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FOREVER BE THE BANE OF MY FORECASTEXISTENCE. FIRST...LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN OTHERWISE LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME HAS ALLOWED FOR A MESO LOW TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COOKCOUNTY SHORE...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INDICATEDON RADAR SPIRALING AROUND THAT MESO-LOW. THUS FAR...NO STRONGINDICATIONS OF THAT LOW MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS WESTWARD.HAVING SAID THAT...WILL BE WEARILY WATCHING THE SPIRAL FEEDERBANDS AROUND THIS LOW FOR POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THEM AFFECTING THECHICAGO SHORELINE. I personally liked this part lol.. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONALTRENDS AND WILL BE HOLDING OUR BREATHE HERE THAT THE WFO TODAYTHAT NO PREVIOUSLY UNFORECAST LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARRIVES DOWNTOWNAT ANY NATIONALLY TELEVISED SPORTING EVENTS THAT MAY BE GOING ONTODAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'll say this, prepare for rain, rain snow mix and a slushy inch. you may just wash that dog piss away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 LOT.. http://www.crh.noaa....FD&issuedby=lot SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW APPEARSLIKELY MONDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTSNORTH WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STAYING ALL SNOW IS GREATEST. SOMEADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE DEFORMATION AXISCROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...STILL ROOM FOR CHANGES WITH THEPARENT TROUGH JUST NOW ONSHORE. Also GIno had a nice write up this morning about the meso low in the middle of the lake.. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FOREVER BE THE BANE OF MY FORECASTEXISTENCE. FIRST...LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN OTHERWISE LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME HAS ALLOWED FOR A MESO LOW TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COOKCOUNTY SHORE...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INDICATEDON RADAR SPIRALING AROUND THAT MESO-LOW. THUS FAR...NO STRONGINDICATIONS OF THAT LOW MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS WESTWARD.HAVING SAID THAT...WILL BE WEARILY WATCHING THE SPIRAL FEEDERBANDS AROUND THIS LOW FOR POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THEM AFFECTING THECHICAGO SHORELINE. I personally liked this part lol.. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONALTRENDS AND WILL BE HOLDING OUR BREATHE HERE THAT THE WFO TODAYTHAT NO PREVIOUSLY UNFORECAST LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARRIVES DOWNTOWNAT ANY NATIONALLY TELEVISED SPORTING EVENTS THAT MAY BE GOING ONTODAY! Skilling pointed out this meso low possibility on Friday.... one other note is that Gino actually lowered the forecasted snow amounts for tomorrow... MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW WITH SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Skilling pointed out this meso low possibility on Friday.... one other note is that Gino actually lowered the forecasted snow amounts for tomorrow... MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW WITH SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. Yeah Caplan talked about that mesolo on Friday as well.. This is probably going to be one of those events with a sharp north south gradient.. Hopefully I am far enough north to avoid to much mixing and enjoy my 2-4 inches of slop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Whatever happened to DVN Justin? That met. I don't think Justin was with DVN, hopefully he comes back. For the LOT area, I think we see the highest amounts top out at around 3-4 inches out around RFD tapering to near nothing in the far east/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think the weenies scared away OceanStwx when they mocked the local office about their wind forecasting for the NP blizzard event. It was only a couple--but he hasn't been back since. I don't blame him. Hmm, I don't remember this. I'll have to go back through that thread and take a look. I hope he isn't gone for good. A few jabs here--nothing extreme but PA gave him some crap/ http://www.americanw...dpost__p__90861 Here Cromartie and OceanstWX had a few back-and-forths where oceanstwx was defending the NWS overall. I think the area around ocean eventually didn't do too well with the blizzard and remained just outside of the nasty stuff. Nobody could nail that one down perfect--that may be another reason. Honestly I remember a few other comments that were mean towards him, but I can't find them. They may have been since deleted. I am not saying this is why he isn't back, but it may. Either way, I haven't seen him in here since. http://www.americanw...dpost__p__94527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 A few jabs here--nothing extreme but PA gave him some crap/ http://www.americanw...dpost__p__90861 Here Cromartie and OceanstWX had a few back-and-forths where oceanstwx was defending the NWS overall. I think the area around ocean eventually didn't do too well with the blizzard and remained just outside of the nasty stuff. Nobody could nail that one down perfect--that may be another reason. Honestly I remember a few other comments that were mean towards him, but I can't find them. They may have been since deleted. I am not saying this is why he isn't back, but it may. Either way, I haven't seen him in here since. http://www.americanw...dpost__p__94527 He might just be busy and bored, not much good going on lately. He, csnavywx and justin never had thin skin, so i doubt PAwxdbag and cromartie (now bannded) scared them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 A few jabs here--nothing extreme but PA gave him some crap/ http://www.americanw...dpost__p__90861 Here Cromartie and OceanstWX had a few back-and-forths where oceanstwx was defending the NWS overall. I think the area around ocean eventually didn't do too well with the blizzard and remained just outside of the nasty stuff. Nobody could nail that one down perfect--that may be another reason. Honestly I remember a few other comments that were mean towards him, but I can't find them. They may have been since deleted. I am not saying this is why he isn't back, but it may. Either way, I haven't seen him in here since. http://www.americanw...dpost__p__94527 Well I hope Cromartie didn't run any of them off. He is/was a well known troll going back to the Eastern days...not to say that he didn't strike a nerve, but those guys know his schtick. Hopefully they're all too busy right now or something else came up. The more of you red taggers, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 He might just be busy and bored, not much good going on lately. He, csnavywx and justin never had thin skin, so i doubt PAwxdbag and cromartie (now bannded) scared them off. Probably likely. Oceanstwx seemed like a nice guy--hope he comes back. I don't know where CSnavywx is though--I like his thoughts around here and he is one of the most knowledgeable mets--his long-term discussions are great too. They all probably realized there are better things to do then post about fizzled storm threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I don't think Justin was with DVN, hopefully he comes back. For the LOT area, I think we see the highest amounts top out at around 3-4 inches out around RFD tapering to near nothing in the far east/south. Both of these guys have been off and on for years...fact is, no true major threat has been on the table in these parts since mid-Dec. aside from small clippers....being a met is like being qb for Bears ....better have a thick skin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Cyclone77 and I especially value the input of OceanStWx and Justin because we live in their forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Anyone have the new EURO QPF? Looks like a good hit for WI, but not sure how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Anyone have the new EURO QPF? Looks like a good hit for WI, but not sure how much. Your hood is probably close to 0.50" QPF. 0.25-0.5" generally over a decent area of WI. Freezing line does it make into your area, but after a good dose of snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I've got a MBY question for the local dudes here and hopefully some red taggers. It is looking like central and especially Northern IN is looking at a snow-to-freezing rain/rain-to-snow mess, as hosier has alluded to several times. A quote from this morning's IWX disco has me concerned for a prolonged freezing rain event: MODELS ALL SEEM TOO WARM IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND WITH 2M TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER DEEP AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO MO AND NE. MODELS LIKELY NOT HANDLING SHALLOW COLD WEDGE THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REMOVE FROM THE AREA. OVERALL WARM AIR IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER DOES NOT SEEM WARM ENOUGH TO BRING SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO QUICKLY GIVEN THIS COLD WEDGE. It seems that, ancetdotally, that shallow, cold air gets shoved/mixed out efficiently in our region with this type of set up. Any thoughts yet on where/if a significant zr threat exists? I am asking due to concerns from an Emergency Management standpoint. Ice storms make my life pure hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I've got a MBY question for the local dudes here and hopefully some red taggers. It is looking like central and especially Northern IN is looking at a snow-to-freezing rain/rain-to-snow mess, as hosier has alluded to several times. A quote from this morning's IWX disco has me concerned for a prolonged freezing rain event: MODELS ALL SEEM TOO WARM IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND WITH 2M TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER DEEP AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO MO AND NE. MODELS LIKELY NOT HANDLING SHALLOW COLD WEDGE THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REMOVE FROM THE AREA. OVERALL WARM AIR IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER DOES NOT SEEM WARM ENOUGH TO BRING SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO QUICKLY GIVEN THIS COLD WEDGE. It seems that, ancetdotally, that shallow, cold air gets shoved/mixed out efficiently in our region with this type of set up. Any thoughts yet on where/if a significant zr threat exists? I am asking due to concerns from an Emergency Management standpoint. Ice storms make my life pure hell. Chances of a more prolonged fzra event seem higher for those down Huntington way...However, hopefully it could change to rain. One to stay on top of, for sure, but I haven't seen discussions of fzra amounts yet. Go Bears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Meh, if the temps get near freezing, ratios will probably be crap anyways. I'm expecting a general 3-5 inches here probably with 8-10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 geez..new IWX WRF wants to warm us up to 36ish. hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's really hard to tell given the 24hr intervals, but at 12z Tuesday the 12z EURO at 850mb may be a bit colder. The 0*C line is along a Erie-Indianapolis-St. Louis line. However, there's a very notable gap between it and the -2*C line, where as the -2*C line stretches from Saginaw to Chicago, continues SW to NE Missouri then curves back westward to Kansas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Same thing with the 12z GGEM. With the exception of a narrow warm tongue poking up towards Detroit at 00z Tuesday, the 850mb 0*C line never crosses north of I-80 anywhere. *Sigh* If only this were a more dynamic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 geez..new IWX WRF wants to warm us up to 36ish. hmmm Relatively torchy for here. At least 20 hours of temps 36º+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 geez..new IWX WRF wants to warm us up to 36ish. hmmm IMO believeable if not underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Same thing with the 12z GGEM. With the exception of a narrow warm tongue poking up towards Detroit at 00z Tuesday, the 850mb 0*C line never crosses north of I-80 anywhere. *Sigh* If only this were a more dynamic storm. I think the southern storm is not allowing this storm to dig further south which could open the gulf. Can't get all the ingredients so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So basically the overall trend with the 12z run have been slightly colder. The 12z ARW even keeps the 850mb line south of I-70 the whole time, lol (it probably won't be THAT cold). It's only tiny baby steps, but if the trend continues I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 IMO believeable if not underdone. Agreed. Down here, low 40's definitely in play. Only bonus is that it will at least clean up some of the snow/ice packed side streets around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 All the local mets have the temps dropping since Friday's forecast. Maybe they will keep dropping past the 35 degrees they are now saying will be high Tuesday. Looks like the best shot of accumulating snow will be on the east winds starting tomorrow. Eh snowstormcanuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think the southern storm is not allowing this storm to dig further south which could open the gulf. Can't get all the ingredients so far this winter. always seems there are too many players on the map. If there's something coming out of the southwest, there's also something moving into the lakes or developing along the coast. If there's energy dropping in from the rockies there's energy along the southern states screwing up the potential gulf influx. Very few good phasing or primary deepening events outside the coastal northeast. Even if you look at the euro's hr 144 coastal, it has low pressure moving towards the northern lakes as well... which should also make the i-95ers a little weary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 All the local mets have the temps dropping since Friday's forecast. Maybe they will keep dropping past the 35 degrees they are now saying will be high Tuesday. Looks like the best shot of accumulating snow will be on the east winds starting tomorrow. Eh snowstormcanuck? My take.... EC is way too warm on Tuesday. We'll likely just sneak above freezing. The best shot of accumulating snow will be with the potential deformation zone that develops on the backside of this storm Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night. NAM is overdone with it's low end warning criteria amounts, but it could amount to "shovellable snow". There may be a little on the front side, but the models seem to want to keep most of that in Michigan Monday night. LES is going to be tough with inversion heights around 2000 feet. I've seen it happen, but it's unlikely. Maybe a dusting late tomorrow? Frankly, the direction of the flow would tend to favour areas from Pickering eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 always seems there are too many players on the map. If there's something coming out of the southwest, there's also something moving into the lakes or developing along the coast. If there's energy dropping in from the rockies there's energy along the southern states screwing up the potential gulf influx. Very few good phasing or primary deepening events outside the coastal northeast. Even if you look at the euro's hr 144 coastal, it has low pressure moving towards the northern lakes as well... which should also make the i-95ers a little weary. Yea I am over these phasing storms. I'm all for a cross country spread the wealth system from nebraska to new jersey with no left over vortex's in the way or a low to the south robbing the gulf moisture. Maybe that's not likely in a la nina but this supressed pattern isn't supposed to be happening either.. From my experience, lows that come from the four corners are the best candidates and very rarely do pacific NW storms do this. As far as this storm goes I would assume tonights runs will have full sampling? Or will the energy still be up in canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z NAM looks SLIGHTLY colder thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z NAM looks SLIGHTLY colder thus far. Does that slight difference look like it would be enough to bring that tight snow gradient further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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