Indystorm Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice 1000 mb low over Fort Wayne midday Tuesday per 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 THIS STORM HAS TONS OF POTENTIAL...TONIGHTS GFS IS NOT BAD AT ALL, ALTHOUGH A LITTLE TO MUCH WARM AIR PULLED NORTH, BUT I LIKE THE PATH IT'S TAKING FOR A GOOD SNOW STORM FOR S/E MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think its overdoing the WAA, the strength of the low level jet is meager at best. and we will be at -12C a day beforehand. Unless that LLJ is > 30kt I don't buy us gaining 12c at 850mb. Also a high over Quebec would force at the very least cold air at the surface with a stiff NE to E wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think its overdoing the WAA, the strength of the low level jet is meager at best. and we will be at -12C a day beforehand. Unless that LLJ is > 30kt I don't buy us gaining 12c at 850mb. Yeah I was thinking the same.. Look at that cold air mass right before the storm tho, still to early, but I'm glad we have all of these systems lined up lol, how cool.. we wont be bored for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 gfs is interesting....low takes 24 hrs to move from n. tx to s. IL. We get everything but the kitchen sink by the time it finally gets to cleveland wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i wouldn't be surprised with a gfs track...but stronger and faster. I just think the model doesn't know what piece(s) of energy to latch onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 gfs is interesting....low takes 24 hrs to move from n. tx to s. IL. We get everything but the kitchen sink by the time it finally gets to cleveland wednesday That's because the initial storm craps out while the 2nd storm dives in and takes over. You can see this between 108 and 114,120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 he said he was just joking, its just like me saying i'd like to see all of the midwest's snow wiped out and i get 2 feet of snow just wishcasting for his own backyard. BTW i actually do hate ohio but then again i'm a Michigan fan not to dwell, but i think the problem is if baum was joking it probably would have been more effective if he was replying to an ohioan...not Alek. Michigan / OSU....a lot of folks here in columbus are devastated by rodriguez's firing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS is a jumbled mess. My target track is between the Burgh and Hoosier.... As Buckeye said we get everything! I am not sold on a big storm yet simply because the models right now are a hot mess. I think a well organized storm that does a track between Burgh-Hoosier next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z gfs has mostly light rain some sleet and zr. 00z GFS gives us .25 inches of ice and 2-3 inches of snow and is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Next week screams freezing rain potential along and South of the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z GEFS takes this from eastern OK to southwest KY to around Erie PA. Around here looks like start as snow change to a mix for awhile and change back to nice backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GGEM is completely different (and not in a good way for anyone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z GGEM has a 1009mb Low on the central part of the KY/TN border but precip barely makes it to the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 0z GFS is just a TAD east of a perfect sfc low track for a good snow here, and I mean a tad, it goes near PAH which is perfect then just east of indy to northeast IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 its weird to see the gfs the most northwest and warm.... how often does that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 FWIW...the graphic skilling's crew put together for the blog tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 its weird to see the gfs the most northwest and warm.... how often does that happen Look at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 lol....938 low 27.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Models so far, both of them are much colder then the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EURO takes a sub 1000-1004 low from SD to IA to WI to MI. Good hit for those areas as well (MI/WI/MN etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 QPF in the WI/MI area is probably .35-.4 for the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 lol....938 low 27.7 If this were to happen, which i give it about a 0.01% chance, the amount of cold air that would be dumped into the Lakes would be unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So the Euro is showing a clipper like system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 not to dwell, but i think the problem is if baum was joking it probably would have been more effective if he was replying to an ohioan...not Alek. Michigan / OSU....a lot of folks here in columbus are devastated by rodriguez's firing at least u guys down south aren't happy with the hire we'll see how these northern waves interact with the pv it wouldn't take much on any model run to see a phase (haven't checked new ggem or ecmwf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Looks like the 06 GFS shifted south... takes the low through Kentucky. May be a slop fest for OH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Will worry about this in a few days. To early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not enamoured with how many GFS ensemble members are warm with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not enamoured with how many GFS ensemble members are warm with this system. Yep...I am concerned about a sloppy mix event here in northern IN. You could miss out on the slop over your way even if a farther northwest solution verifies given a possible coastal transfer limiting low level WAA. Guidance is keying in on different energy within the longwave trough so who knows what will happen. At least we have something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 at least u guys down south aren't happy with the hire we'll see how these northern waves interact with the pv it wouldn't take much on any model run to see a phase (haven't checked new ggem or ecmwf) that's the point....rodriguez was the best thing to ever happen for osu fans...he never beat them. by the way, i could care less either way....(see sig).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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