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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential

A-L-E-K

By A-L-E-K,
in Central/Western States

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weatherguru

weatherguru

Posted
Posted

Not really. EURO/GFS/NAM are still farther north. All take a low somewhere in the WI/N.IL area it looks like.

Bow, how much qpf here on the euro?

00z GFS is furthur south and shows a more organized 500mb vortex. Have u seen 00z ECMWF?

BTW, moneyman I sent u a pm because I am on a 5 post a day for right now.

How about Chicago Bow? Is it rain or snow?

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cmichweather

cmichweather

Posted
Posted

I am not saying the modeling has some kind of handle on this system but I still think there is a wild card in this storm. At the risk of going so far the other way of getting burnt by literally shoving the colder global temp regime and much colder ocean water down the throat of every storm system to come the next 30 years, in a general sense, the GFS going south throws up a caution flag for me. This will not be a major event (maybe a small area could qualify) so it is not suggesting that BECAUSE SOUTH THEN EVERYONE GETS SNOW but it is to point out what I have exhausted myself to research to since 2004 that model physics are going to be too warm for this storm in most places. Now while I am probably whining over spilled milk here because I still like it getting to rain well into C IN and OH, I still have to consider a stronger cold dome in place leading to snow and sleet at the beginning in some areas that might be surprising. Again and I stress, not a big event but when the general consensus thinks very little if any freezing rain or snow comes at the beginning an extended period of time of freezing rain could occur especially the farther north one goes and especially in valleys. Most on here that have studied the weather in depth has never seen many storms where warm air was ever held in check because it always over surged and we rose greater then models thought. However, with the new regime we are in I have to leave that side open that warm air will start being over forecasted because the model upgrades have tried to catch up to the warm cycle we had been in since the late 1970s. Something to think about. The GFS always had the SE bias but if you notice since last winter and especially this winter the GFS has wanted to push more SE. We have had 5 or 6 storms already this winter that we expect the NW trend to occur and it did not happen. There have been a couple storms where we thought a NW trend was happening but what happened is the low was trying to find heat that it went so far north towards the block that new southern low pressure formed. A sign that high pressure to the north is going to be strong. We do not have that much block this time so I do not expect that much for late Mon into Tues but that is another reason why I knew blocking would be a mainstay this winter. Anyway, I am curious to see how this evolves because if the SE trend continues on the GFS then do not be surprised if some places have a sustained period of ice. Confidence is not high because like all of you, this is in the infant stages of a new global pressure belt regime but this could be a very key cog in getting ahead of the game for coming storms and for all storms to come.

Me being in S Ohio, since this is a wide region it does not fit into the whole demographic area so have to consider that when reading but trying to look at this on a very broad spectrum maybe it will make some more sense because I know some still get screwed and other areas are saying we get crap because we only get 1-2" but hopefully you see the overall premises of this post.

Josh

I usually just like to read and give out random comments but i guess i'm gonna ask a few questions....... When you say models have been upgraded to account for the warm cycle how exactly do you think this was done? Models take observations and run out forecasts based on the data analysis that is provided to the model, providing you have a warm start model. Do you think they altered the temperature/advection calculations and just added a .5 degree warming trend to account for AGW or what are you trying to say? I can tell you with very high confidence that the model upgrades of recent have not been to catch the warm cycle we are in. Models are ingesting so much info every run to think that they'd try to make an adjustment for global temperatures doesn't make any sense, you think they alter how the temperatures are entered into the model because the readings are too low, or that the model run out to a certain time needs to be tempered warmer because of GW?

Most model upgrades recently have been to diagnose the QPF bulls eye that occur, latent heat release and pressure falls, and some what around advection of air masses. But they haven't changed the models due to GW.

Now i agree there is an ice aspect to this storm that has to be analyzed but with a high directly to the east of the low (which aids in the advection of warmer air) and a lack of blocking, the only thing holding back the warm air advection is the depth of the polar air and the amount of WAA that is occuring. There certainly will be a respectable WAA aloft as the low deepens and the low/mid level advection increases ahead of the low. I would think ohio has a short time frame of freezing rain before they go over to rain and i'd say detroit or so may be the boundary but i'd definitely hedge further north at this point knowing how the models typically have trouble with arctic air masses and how quickly it is removed.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

00z GFS is furthur south and shows a more organized 500mb vortex. Have u seen 00z ECMWF?

BTW, moneyman I sent u a pm because I am on a 5 post a day for right now.

How about Chicago Bow? Is it rain or snow?

Tough call for us and I really can't give you an honest/accurate thought.. AFD coming out in a few hrs.. My guess is LOT is Alek doing it if that tells you much... I think we'll see a lil more shift south - get you out of the drysloot, not a lot but some where it could make a difference for some of us

NE getting smoked again in the 180+ fantasy range.. I haven't seen a fantasy storm on the models in going on 4ever now it seems. If these are the kinna negative nao/AO winters of the future I will have to abandoned, MKE... At least the UP gets LES and Medical Kush.They probably could use some Bucky BBQ up there enough where I could make it in a trailer.

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OhioValleyWx

OhioValleyWx

Posted
Posted

I usually just like to read and give out random comments but i guess i'm gonna ask a few questions....... When you say models have been upgraded to account for the warm cycle how exactly do you think this was done? Models take observations and run out forecasts based on the data analysis that is provided to the model, providing you have a warm start model. Do you think they altered the temperature/advection calculations and just added a .5 degree warming trend to account for AGW or what are you trying to say? I can tell you with very high confidence that the model upgrades of recent have not been to catch the warm cycle we are in. Models are ingesting so much info every run to think that they'd try to make an adjustment for global temperatures doesn't make any sense, you think they alter how the temperatures are entered into the model because the readings are too low, or that the model run out to a certain time needs to be tempered warmer because of GW?

Most model upgrades recently have been to diagnose the QPF bulls eye that occur, latent heat release and pressure falls, and some what around advection of air masses. But they haven't changed the models due to GW.

Now i agree there is an ice aspect to this storm that has to be analyzed but with a high directly to the east of the low (which aids in the advection of warmer air) and a lack of blocking, the only thing holding back the warm air advection is the depth of the polar air and the amount of WAA that is occuring. There certainly will be a respectable WAA aloft as the low deepens and the low/mid level advection increases ahead of the low. I would think ohio has a short time frame of freezing rain before they go over to rain and i'd say detroit or so may be the boundary but i'd definitely hedge further north at this point knowing how the models typically have trouble with arctic air masses and how quickly it is removed.

Since I am not a model creator I do not have specifics to give but model algorithm calculations have been adjusted. Saying warm is a poor choice of words a more correct way of saying it is that algorithmic calculations have been altered to change the way they handle the whole physics of the atmosphere. I am not talking about one upgrade or a recent upgrade just a general schema. No model says "I am warm because I am told to do that" but the human or group of model interpreting calculations who put the physics behind it just seem to be running higher than the actual. Maybe it is just this winter and I am too quick to jump the gun but what has been spitting out usually ends up being under lately. This has nothing to do with GW or WARM CYCLE per se' but since it is an algorithmic calculation made by human inductive reasoning, the calculations change to try to make the model better and I believe those calculations were altered to try to adjust to the warming we have/had seen. A cheap example would be saying 2 + 2 = 4. Over time it came to figure out 2 + 2 = 5, so the people who do these things added an additional function to allow for that change. My question or debate lies in that area. Did scientists/physicists change their calculations due to a generally warming period to account for it because several years ago (how many I do not remember) models would run cold so they had to figure out a way to get them to sense more warmth?

This has nothing to do with a particular storm or anything with that regard. This coming storm has no blocking and WAA will be prevalent and I am not debating that at all, my head scratching issue is are we getting to a point that a change in the algorithmic functions and calculations need to be reviewed. There has got to be a reason why models, in my opinion, are struggling terribly lately. All in all, I am using inductive logic to see if models continue to struggle mightily at times to come to a concrete solution that a review of some functions should be examined to help. Nothing will be perfect and maybe I am trying to delve too deep into something and over-analyzing something that is not worth it but the physics of the models are struggling so just throwing out a thought on the principle of trying to change some algorithms around to get a better grasp on the crazy physics of the atmosphere.

Josh

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

DTX noticing the changes in the models. Also noting that they believe the shallow cold layer will be hard to budge as noted by bolded part.

THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE GATHERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EFFICIENTLY PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. PLAN VIEW DEPICTIONS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING LOOK OUTSTANDING. SO DESPITE...A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS LINGERING WELL BACK TO THE WEST...CVA FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ITSELF SHOULD LEAD TO SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS LATE MONDAY...WITH QPF AND SNOW ONLY BEING A HUNDREDTH/TENTH OR TWO. BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS MAIN ISENTROPIC SURGE LIFTS THROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTO THE CWA. DESPITE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE NWP SUITE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPORAL/PLACEMENT OF MAIN SURFACE FEATURES...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL BE ROUGHLY 4000 FT DEEP. MAX TEMP IN THE LAYER ONLY REACHING +2C...SUGGESTS A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITHOUT A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION CRIES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE...AND A REMNANT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WILL BE IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE DEFINITE SNOW. PURE MODEL OUTPUT OF SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULBS PREDICTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE FREEZING MARK BETWEEN 9-12Z TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT THINGS CLEAN FOR TUESDAY WITH A STRAIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ON IF A LIQUID PHASE WILL BE ABLE TO LIFT INTO AND THROUGH THE TRI CITIES REGION. OBVIOUSLY IF LATER FORECAST INFORMATION SUPPORTS ALL SNOW...THEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. ANOTHER QUESTION MARK REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS OF THIS SYSTEM. NAM/NHEM GEM ARE ONTO A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS A SWATH OF DEFORMATION SNOW BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT BUT THIS SOLUTION REMAINS VIABLE. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LEGITIMATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. TO ALSO HEDGE AGAINST THIS SOLUTION...ADDED A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MIDNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND A 12Z MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

Btw what is the NHEM ? I never heard of that, I assume its some sort of ensemble.

GRR

THE OTHER MAIN CHALLENGE IS THEN P-TYPE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE LATE MON THROUGH TUE TIME FRAME. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE BIT WARMER. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS AOA FREEZING ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND AND MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUPPORT PCPN STARTING OUT AS SNOW MON AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW BEFORE AS TEMPS ALOFT GO ABOVE FREEZING JUST BEFORE SFC TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN COULD BE MAINLY RAIN LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 30S. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST QUITE A BIT THIS WAY...BUT NOT GOING TOO FAR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING YET. ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT THE MAIN ENERGY THAT WILL BE DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY...AND THE RAOB NETWORK WILL THEN BETTER SAMPLE IT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND OTHER ENERGY THAT WILL INTERACT/PHASE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE SNOWPACK THAT IS IN PLACE OVER AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PRETTY BROAD SRLY FLOW THAT WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE WARMER AIR EFFICIENTLY. THE SNOWPACK MAY LIMIT THE WARMING A LITTLE...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET THIS WARMER AIR UP HERE BRIEFLY. EVEN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NAM WITH ITS BIAS DUE TO SNOWPACK IS BRINGING IN SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR NORTH TO CHANGE PCPN OVER.

GRR seems to be latching onto the warmer solution however still states there is some uncertainty especially with the energy and the snowpack to the south.
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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

IWX also has concerns about the temps on the models being too high

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND PCPN TYPE ISSUES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERMAL FIELDS INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT ONSET OF PCPN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MIX IN FAR SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF WAVE WILL BRING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL FIELDS TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 0C ACROSS FAR SOUTH. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG MODELS ON WHERE 0C 850MB LINE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS WHAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL DO MONDAY NIGHT. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER SUGGESTING RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS MOST PLAUSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN COLD WITH MEAN 0C LINE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS ALL SEEM TOO WARM IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND WITH 2M TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER DEEP AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO MO AND NE. MODELS LIKELY NOT HANDLING SHALLOW COLD WEDGE THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REMOVE FROM THE AREA. OVERALL WARM AIR IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER DOES NOT SEEM WARM ENOUGH TO BRING SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO QUICKLY GIVEN THIS COLD WEDGE. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PCPN IS JUST TOPPING THE PACIFIC RIDGE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE SAMPLED A LITTLE BETTER BY 12Z UA SOUNDINGS TODAY. PREFER NOT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST PCPN TYPES AT THIS TIME GIVEN POSSIBLE CHANGES NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON A LITTLE WARMER SOLUTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO ADD MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN BORDER BUT WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW MENTION ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 30.

PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. AS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM PERIOD...925 MB TEMPS LOOK TO AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE SFC TEMPS LIKELY HOVERING IN THE 31 TO 33 DEGREE RANGE ESPECIALLY SE. CONCERNED FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE MORNING FOR MOST AREAS SO HAVE INTRODUCED FREEZING RAIN INTO WX GRIDS. DID INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CAT POPS BASED ON SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRENDS OF MODELS AND DEEPER MSTR DEPARTURE WITH HIGHEST POPS SE. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG SE HALF WHERE WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. ABOVE CONCERNS FOR SFC TEMPS ARE PARTIALLY ECHOED IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPS...WHICH WHILE JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO TRIM A DEGREE OR 2 OFF BUT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK AND DEGREE OF WARM AIR INTRUSION AFFECT THINGS...CAN`T JUSTIFY CHANGES EITHER DIRECTION. HAVE KEPT QPF AND ICING AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER END FOR NOW. COLDER AIR DOES BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NW AREAS...BRING ALL PRECIP BACK TO JUST SNOW...JUST ALSO TAPERING TO JUST LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES. HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SE THIRD INTO AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIFT AND MSTR BUT HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIP.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Yeah it looks wetter and slower in IL and IN. Seeing some signs up of a 1008mb low in central IL/IN?

1006 in eastern Indiana.

Quick look at soundings for ORD, show surface temps still unfavorable (above 32º), but everything else is cooling sufficiently. Still looks pretty sloppy.

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