Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 euro looks sweet day 5-6.... OV to the northeast. screw the measley slop fest mon/tues Yeap that looks mighty nice right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I like the cold plunge on the ECMWF. I won't post in my failed "Arctic Outbreak" thread for fear of cursing it for the third time. definite redemption for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looking at the 12z LSX WRF, its bringing in some good snow to northern IL, also here are two soundings for ORD at the time of the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z EURO looks fugly with this one. Brings the critical indicators right up to Lk Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 DVN THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING CARRIES A ITS MOST SIGNIFICANT QUESTION ON SATURATION DURING THE WAA PROCESS. THE GFS...GEM...NAM...00Z EC...AND UKMET ALL SATURATE FOR SNOW ON THE WAA WING...AND THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. FOR OUR CWA...THIS MEANS A BOUT OF MODERATE FORCING...AND WITH STRONG BAROCLINICITY...A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY. AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES CONSERVATIVELY...TO 2 TO 6 MORE AGGRESSIVELY. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF SATURATION IN THE WAA. I DO FEEL MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE GIVEN THE COLD START SUNDAY...AND INITIAL DELAYED SATURATION. SATURATION PROCESS AND LIFT SHOULD COOL TEMPS ALOFT SLIGHTLY AND KEEP MOST PCPN AS SNOW...THOUGH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW SOUTH SEEMS POSSIBLE. AN ADVISORY REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT...IF ONE IS IN FACT NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Im giving up on this one.. NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This is gonna sound a little silly but here's my best guess on ptype for us. Snow, freezing rain, or rain, changing to rain then changing to snow. I guess you can't rule out a little zr between the last transition but probably not very likely. Overall amounts should be pretty light. Not silly, I think you have it nailed. Kitchen sink weak slop-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looking at the 12z LSX WRF, its bringing in some good snow to northern IL, also here are two soundings for ORD at the time of the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 quite the warm push at 850mb on the 18z NAM here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Almost .5" of liquid in spots but definitely some mixing and plain rain on this run of the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I used to believe everything over 180hrs on the gfs is Fantasy range, from today anything over 84 hours is fantasy range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Based on the 12z EURO, and what I'm seeing from the 18z NAM, I'm throwing in the towel on this one. Paltry QPF and warm temps. Might squeeze something out of it, but nothing worth discussing it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am always pessimistic. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9006-baroclinic-instability-is-pessimistic/ Take a quick read everyone so everyone understands where I am coming from--and that I am not all that bad of a dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 nicely done AFD by Gino ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...PROGGED TO MAKE LAND TONIGHT BEFORE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING THE SHORTWAVE A BIT AS IT EMERGES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND EVEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT ON THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET CURRENTLY ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...WITH THE 12Z WRF-NAM THE NORTHERN MOST. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO OFFER UP A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 15Z SREF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY 50KT+ H8 JET AND STRONG SOUTHERN WINDS AT THE SURFACE LIKELY TO RESULT IN A RAPID RECOVERY IN TEMPS FROM THEIR CURRENT STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL I CAN FIND WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MOST CWA. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND PAST EXPERIENCE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FRZ RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND EVEN INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE TREND OF THE MODELS TO TRACK THE SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH AND THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION (ECMWF BRINGING 2M TDS INTO THE MID 30S) THINK ITS POSSIBLE THAT P-TYPE COULD TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS CHICAGO...BUT FOR NOW ONLY WANTED TO MAKE LARGE BABY STEPS TOWARD A LESS WHITE/MORE WET SOLUTION. DESPITE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTHERN CWA AND A PERIOD OF ICY ACCUM POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 MKX EARLY ON...FOCUS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS AS IT SPREADS EAST OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENED POP GRADIENT AFTER 06Z MONDAY...WITH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST IN WEST BUT LOWER IN THE EAST...PRIOR TO 12Z. INCREASE CHANCES RAPIDLY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN 850-700MB WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AXIS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING UNTIL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. WAA REGIME WILL WARM COLUMN SO SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS FROM ROBBER FAVORING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF A 9:1 TO 15:1 RANGE...AND COBB AVERAGING AROUND 12:1 LOOK ON TRACK. STORM TOTAL QPF BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.3 YIELDS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WAA WILL ALSO BRING A NON-DIURNAL TREND TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW WARMING AFTER 06Z...AND AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT WAA WILL WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM...THEN STEADY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. AMOUNT OF WARMING AND COOLING DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK SO A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES USED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 DVN LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE- RIDING WAVE ENERGY THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER IN SPEED AND HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PROGRESSION TO IRON OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH LOWER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSION AND THUS MORE ROBUST WITH WAA AHEAD OF IT THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUILDING A WARM- WEDGE ALOFT DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SWITCHING TO FREEZING RAIN ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA BY MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM MAY EVEN WARM ENOUGH TO THE SFC FOR ALL RAIN IN SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL...WITH A DECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH...MAKING FOR MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MON EVENING /WIDESPREAD 1-3+ INCHES CWA-WIDE WITH AREAS OF 3 TO 4.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA/ WITH MAYBE SOME SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH IS TRENDING WITH A FASTER INCOMING SPEED AND LOW PLACEMENT IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...ALTHOUGH IT HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM. THUS WITH FASTER INCOMING SPEED...WILL INCREASE POPS FROM 06Z-12Z MON ACRS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE SIGNALS OF A ROBUST PRE-SYSTEM WAA WING OF LIFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT/S CONCERN OF SPEED OF SATURATION AND EXTENT OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL OF THE COLUMN THAT NEEDS TO MOISTEN BEFORE PRECIP SFC ARRIVAL. EVEN TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH SATURATION FOR LIGHT TO BOUTS OF MODERATE SNOW BY MON MORNING ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE DVN CWA. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LOOK TO FALL FROM 10Z MON...TO 00Z TUE WITH EVEN MORE CONCENTRATED WINDOWS DUE TO CONVERGENT WAA BANDING WITHIN THAT TIME-FRAME. STILL APPEARS A SOLID 3-4+ INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM VAN HORNE IA...TO CLINTON IA AND TO SOUTH OF STERLING IL AND WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY AND ONGOING SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK ON TARGET IN THESE AREAS. BUT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF HANDLING AND FURTHER NORTH PROPAGATION...WILL EXPAND SNOW AND SLEET MIX FURTHER NORTH TO AT LEAST THE I80 CORRIDOR. WILL HOLD OFF OF FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR NOW...BUT ANY FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE ACCEPTED MODEL SOLUTION OR SIGNALS OF EVEN STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE CURRENT MODEL TRACK WILL WARRANT ZR MENTION BY MIDDAY MONDAY FOR THE SOUTH THIRD TO POSSIBLY HALF OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA. AGAIN THE SFC MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD/HWY 34 AND SOUTH BY MON AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WAA. SLEET MIX AND LOWER LSR/S WILL KNOCK DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I80 TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE 1 INCH TOTAL. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL PROBABLY EXIT OUT OF THE CWA FASTER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...BUT WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE CHC POPS FOR MON EVENING ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST. TOP-DOWN DRYING WITH LINGERING LIFT MAY LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID EVENING MON NIGHT. BRISK PRE- FRONTAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING/BLOWING MON AFTERNOON IN AREAS RECEIVING 2+ INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This storm threat just looks like junk. It took two bad turns as of late. First, no full phase with the Canadian vortex. Second, the leading S/W is junk. The resultant storm is pretty weak and not all that organized. ECM may not have had the track perfect, but it was pretty consistently the weakest of all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Congrats N Illinois and S WI, where is Bowmehunter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18z NAM took a pretty good jump north, but the 18z GFS holds serve maintaining a further south solution. Hopefully the 18z NAM is wrong, as it would bring mixing issues this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Congrats N Illinois and S WI, where is Bowmehunter? thank you lol 18z GFS a decent run for us, might have mixing problems at the end but a few inches atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 thank you lol 18z GFS a decent run for us, might have mixing problems at the end but a few inches atleast. 18z NAM does have .25-.50 liquid for N IL to. 3-5 inches for S WI/N IL. How is temperatures for ORD throughout event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18z NAM does have .25-.50 liquid for N IL to. 3-5 inches for S WI/N IL. How is temperatures for ORD throughout event? I believe the 18z NAM was warmer for here than the 18z GFS is, we would have more mixing/rain problems if that run of the NAM verified. The GFS run is a mostly if not all snow run for here, possible mixing at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 This storm threat just looks like junk. It took two bad turns as of late. First, no full phase with the Canadian vortex. Second, the leading S/W is junk. The resultant storm is pretty weak and not all that organized. ECM may not have had the track perfect, but it was pretty consistently the weakest of all guidance. Yeah as far as the long rang was concerned, the ECM had the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like it may be bon voyage to our snowpack again down here in central Indiana. Euro has the 40º line getting awfully close to LAF, and 12z MEX has a high of 37º for Tuesday. Taking into account how the models typically underestimate WAA, I'm liking a high somewhere in the low 40's here early Tuesday before temps begin to dip down again. In conjunction with the rainfall= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 hi res 12z NMM hi res 12z ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Never a good thing when they start the "sloppy mess" talk in the AFD... Stick a fork in it... "baby steps to a less white/more wet solution".... once that solution begins to rear it's ugly head, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 FWIW, the 15z SREF mean 850mb temps are cooler than the new 18z NAM. They're more along the lines of what the 12z showed. Not as cold as the GFS and RGEM though. The RGEM always seems the warmest in these situations, so it's interesting to see the NAM even warmer than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You can tell this storm threat took a dump on itself when nobody is even bothering to discuss the new 0Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Continues to look like it's the warmest of the available guidance. It's depicting quite the WAA regime. I go from -20c to 0c at 850 in about 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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