Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential


A-L-E-K

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I look at This. A few hours before each run of the GGEM it goes out to 48 hours. Not sure if thats the regional RGEM or a sneak peek of the GGEM.

It's the RGEM through 48hrs, and then converts to the GGEM beyond that. After the GGEM model comes out, it'll be added to the beyond 48hr time frame. As you scan through each image, you can see the resolution change when you hit the 49hr mark. Sometimes you'll see a slight jump as well in some of the precip displays, as the GGEM and RGEM aren't always 100% in sync.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs.

yea, at this point I'm just hoping we still maintain a snowcover before the arctic damn breaks later in the week. gfs has -27 850s over s. ohio at 150hr. Not a huge fan of brutal cold, but if it's gotta happen might as well be memorable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's the RGEM through 48hrs, and then converts to the GGEM beyond that. After the GGEM model comes out, it'll be added to the beyond 48hr time frame. As you scan through each image, you can see the resolution change when you hit the 49hr mark. Sometimes you'll see a slight jump as well in some of the precip displays, as the GGEM and RGEM aren't always 100% in sync.

Thanks for that. Yea I was curious why it looked different after 48 hours. I just thought I was seeing things and needed to get some sleep because this weather tracking is addicting. Was just going to ask are the first 48 hours of the GGEM always the RGEM and the GGEM takes over after that. As far as this storm goes I still think it could surprise. I just cant believe another coastal is going to occur. The teleconnections definatly don't favor that. So much for JB's call for a far western track, west of the Apps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for that. Yea I was curious why it looked different after 48 hours. I just thought I was seeing things and needed to get some sleep because this weather tracking is addicting. Was just going to ask are the first 48 hours of the GGEM always the RGEM and the GGEM takes over after that. As far as this storm goes I still think it could surprise. I just cant believe another coastal is going to occur. The teleconnections definatly don't favor that. So much for JB's call for a far western track, west of the Apps.

So your saying that southern piece will phase and go way furthur NW? I see it hovers alone SE coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO, Michigan is too far east for advisory amounts, we'll see though,

If anything i think we are too far west as it is now starting to look more and more like a weaker northern stream system and more dominate southern system going to far east for most this side of the apps. Could be a few spots i suppose that could score advisory level stuff but that would probably be thanks to the lake stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs.

Eh, it's nothing too exciting, but it does look like a huge area of the MW and Lakes should see 1-3". Certainly a lot better than the barrage of virga storms we've had here the last 4-5 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh, it's nothing too exciting, but it does look like a huge area of the MW and Lakes should see 1-3". Certainly a lot better than the barrage of virga storms we've had here the last 4-5 days.

Of course, the keeping up the food fight comment was more about people still pulling for a phased monster. I think I'll see just enough to cover up the dog piss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro stronger and farther north. 32º line up around GRB (a bit east) at 60 hours.

This is gonna sound a little silly but here's my best guess on ptype for us. Snow, freezing rain, or rain, changing to rain then changing to snow. I guess you can't rule out a little zr between the last transition but probably not very likely. Overall amounts should be pretty light.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro looks like it is still having issues with how intense the leading edge S/W is with this storm threat. Goes to show for everyone even the ECMWF is not "the King" and has issues itself. That said, this is a complicated storm threat, and we won't have anything definitive for another 24 hours at the least except that the first wave will be the dominant wave over the secondary wave dropping S.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is gonna sound a little silly but here's my best guess on ptype for us. Snow, freezing rain, or rain, changing to rain then changing to snow. I guess you can't rule out a little zr between the last transition but probably not very likely. Overall amounts should be pretty light.

so kinda like that big honkin system in early december 09'?? lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...