buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I look at This. A few hours before each run of the GGEM it goes out to 48 hours. Not sure if thats the regional RGEM or a sneak peek of the GGEM. it's rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I look at This. A few hours before each run of the GGEM it goes out to 48 hours. Not sure if thats the regional RGEM or a sneak peek of the GGEM. it's rgem Yep it is the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It's the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I look at This. A few hours before each run of the GGEM it goes out to 48 hours. Not sure if thats the regional RGEM or a sneak peek of the GGEM. It's the RGEM through 48hrs, and then converts to the GGEM beyond that. After the GGEM model comes out, it'll be added to the beyond 48hr time frame. As you scan through each image, you can see the resolution change when you hit the 49hr mark. Sometimes you'll see a slight jump as well in some of the precip displays, as the GGEM and RGEM aren't always 100% in sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like a slop storm to me for down this way. I still have suspicions of this solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs. yea, at this point I'm just hoping we still maintain a snowcover before the arctic damn breaks later in the week. gfs has -27 850s over s. ohio at 150hr. Not a huge fan of brutal cold, but if it's gotta happen might as well be memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs. Agree. I guess a swath of advisory type snows cannot be ruled out across the Upper Midwest into portions of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Agree. I guess a swath of advisory type snows cannot be ruled out across the Upper Midwest into portions of Michigan. Yeah if I had to forecast for lower Michigan right now I'd probably go with a 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Agree. I guess a swath of advisory type snows cannot be ruled out across the Upper Midwest into portions of Michigan. IMO, Michigan is too far east for advisory amounts, we'll see though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It's the RGEM through 48hrs, and then converts to the GGEM beyond that. After the GGEM model comes out, it'll be added to the beyond 48hr time frame. As you scan through each image, you can see the resolution change when you hit the 49hr mark. Sometimes you'll see a slight jump as well in some of the precip displays, as the GGEM and RGEM aren't always 100% in sync. Thanks for that. Yea I was curious why it looked different after 48 hours. I just thought I was seeing things and needed to get some sleep because this weather tracking is addicting. Was just going to ask are the first 48 hours of the GGEM always the RGEM and the GGEM takes over after that. As far as this storm goes I still think it could surprise. I just cant believe another coastal is going to occur. The teleconnections definatly don't favor that. So much for JB's call for a far western track, west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 IMO, Michigan is too far east for advisory amounts, we'll see though, I am calling for 1-3 inches for Chicago and 2-5 inches for Madison to Fond Du Lac, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs. it's called desperation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Thanks for that. Yea I was curious why it looked different after 48 hours. I just thought I was seeing things and needed to get some sleep because this weather tracking is addicting. Was just going to ask are the first 48 hours of the GGEM always the RGEM and the GGEM takes over after that. As far as this storm goes I still think it could surprise. I just cant believe another coastal is going to occur. The teleconnections definatly don't favor that. So much for JB's call for a far western track, west of the Apps. So your saying that southern piece will phase and go way furthur NW? I see it hovers alone SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 IMO, Michigan is too far east for advisory amounts, we'll see though, If anything i think we are too far west as it is now starting to look more and more like a weaker northern stream system and more dominate southern system going to far east for most this side of the apps. Could be a few spots i suppose that could score advisory level stuff but that would probably be thanks to the lake stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i see some people are still keeping up the good fight, storm looks pretty trashy to me. Probably a 1-3 incher with slightly higher amounts northwest around daddylonglegs. Eh, it's nothing too exciting, but it does look like a huge area of the MW and Lakes should see 1-3". Certainly a lot better than the barrage of virga storms we've had here the last 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Eh, it's nothing too exciting, but it does look like a huge area of the MW and Lakes should see 1-3". Certainly a lot better than the barrage of virga storms we've had here the last 4-5 days. Of course, the keeping up the food fight comment was more about people still pulling for a phased monster. I think I'll see just enough to cover up the dog piss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'll say a general 3-5 inches in S and W WI along with MN. Then 2-4 in MI and 1-3 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'll say a general 3-5 inches in S and W WI along with MN. Then 2-4 in MI and 1-3 in IL. 3-5" for MN may be a bit optimistic. Storm looks trashy as the baroclinic dead zone of the Rockies shreds this incoming wave/Pacific occlusion apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ...and yet another wrinkle for the upcoming week. GGEM now sends a juicy wave up the arctic front thurs/fri. sorry, i'm losing track as to which thread is the appropriate one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ...and yet another wrinkle for the upcoming week. GGEM now sends a juicy wave up the arctic front thurs/fri. sorry, i'm losing track as to which thread is the appropriate one Yeap that looks nice right now. Its quite the forecast for next week to say the least. Complicated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Euro stronger and farther north. 32º line up around GRB (a bit east) at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 All these threads are confusing :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 All these threads are confusing :-\ lol, you're right. I'm not sure I even posted the relevant info in the right thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Euro stronger and farther north. 32º line up around GRB (a bit east) at 60 hours. This is gonna sound a little silly but here's my best guess on ptype for us. Snow, freezing rain, or rain, changing to rain then changing to snow. I guess you can't rule out a little zr between the last transition but probably not very likely. Overall amounts should be pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The Euro looks like it is still having issues with how intense the leading edge S/W is with this storm threat. Goes to show for everyone even the ECMWF is not "the King" and has issues itself. That said, this is a complicated storm threat, and we won't have anything definitive for another 24 hours at the least except that the first wave will be the dominant wave over the secondary wave dropping S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This is gonna sound a little silly but here's my best guess on ptype for us. Snow, freezing rain, or rain, changing to rain then changing to snow. I guess you can't rule out a little zr between the last transition but probably not very likely. Overall amounts should be pretty light. so kinda like that big honkin system in early december 09'?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 euro looks sweet day 5-6.... OV to the northeast. screw the measley slop fest mon/tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 euro looks sweet day 5-6.... OV to the northeast. screw the measley slop fest mon/tues maybe this should be in the 19-21? I've lost track. Are you talking about the storm near 120+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I like the cold plunge on the ECMWF. I won't post in my failed "Arctic Outbreak" thread for fear of cursing it for the third time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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