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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential


A-L-E-K

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looking back at that SREF ensemble image i posted earlier, most of them are showing a stronger sfc low then the GFS/NAM are showing currently

some are as deep as 980mb and the mean is at 996mb.

Yeah that is what could happen if things were to phase more/earlier.

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The 12z NAM scores a decent hit for Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as northeast Iowa/northern Illinois. The clipper looks more vigorous than the last two or three. Feeling pretty good about a solid 2-3 inches for the QC. Could be a short period of heavy snowfall with this. Hopefully we can get this thing to slow down a bit.

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Yeah that is what could happen if things were to phase more/earlier.

Taking about phasing with the southern low? I think if that were to occur too early we could see some rain. If its a bit later we could see decent amounts. Its not even onshore yet and it's going to be here in 3 days. Crazy how the energy just cruises a long.

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