Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z GFS bringing in another snow event next weds/thursday for IA/IL/WI/IN/MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Per GFS BUFKIT, YYZ stays all snow on Tuesday. Bl temp gets to about 0.5c at its max. Good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z GFS bringing in another snow event next weds/thursday for IA/IL/WI/IN/MI I went ahead and started a thread for it. Looks good for most of us not to mention the cold behind it. Brrrrrrrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Good to hear! It works out to 2.1-2.4" of snow but I'll take that over 0.21" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It works out to 2.1-2.4" of snow but I'll take that over 0.21" of rain. Definately. I do.n't think much of our snowpack will melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Definately. I do.n't think much of our snowpack will melt. Yeah, no. We'd add to it. GGEM keeps the critical thickness boundary south of us with improved QPF (adding up the two frames it looks like it's between 5 and 10 mm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah, no. We'd add to it. GGEM keeps the critical thickness boundary south of us with improved QPF (adding up the two frames it looks like it's between 5 and 10 mm). The new 00z/15 or the 12z/14? Also are temps colder on the new 00z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The new 00z/15 or the 12z/14? Also are temps colder on the new 00z run? That's the 0z/15. Can't judge bl temps on the OP GGEM output available on EC's site but from the looks of it I think it's thermal fields would be similar to the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That's the 0z/15. Can't judge bl temps on the OP GFS output available on EC's site but from the looks of it I think it's thermal fields would be similar to the 0z GFS. So the 5-10mm the GGEM is showing would be 5-10cm of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 So the 5-10mm the GGEM is showing would be 5-10cm of snow? This looks like a good candidate for 10:1 ratios, so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Assuming the temps are okay, the 00z GGEM looks like a good hit for cyclone over to MKE from 60-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Unless i'm reading it wrong, GGEM looks cold enough for most to stay frozen or just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Unless i'm reading it wrong, GGEM looks cold enough for most to stay frozen or just snow. Hard to say. Raleighwx has 850 mb temps/2m temps which would give a little better idea but I don't think it's updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Umm, I just checked the new GFS (was out) and what a run. .35 qpf here for the next storm (temps 24-25) and then another .2 qpf event a few days later (temps 14-16) and then it doesnt get above zero for nearly 36 hours, and the whole run is pretty much cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looking back at that SREF ensemble image i posted earlier, most of them are showing a stronger sfc low then the GFS/NAM are showing currently some are as deep as 980mb and the mean is at 996mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looking back at that SREF ensemble image i posted earlier, most of them are showing a stronger sfc low then the GFS/NAM are showing currently some are as deep as 980mb and the mean is at 996mb. Yeah that is what could happen if things were to phase more/earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looking back at that SREF ensemble image i posted earlier, most of them are showing a stronger sfc low then the GFS/NAM are showing currently some are as deep as 980mb and the mean is at 996mb. I think that is an SREF bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 how was the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 IWX WRF LSX WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 12z NAM scores a decent hit for Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as northeast Iowa/northern Illinois. The clipper looks more vigorous than the last two or three. Feeling pretty good about a solid 2-3 inches for the QC. Could be a short period of heavy snowfall with this. Hopefully we can get this thing to slow down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z RGEM shows some nice pockets of moderate to heavy snow over southern Minnesota down into Iowa early Monday. The rain/snow line looks further south on both the 12z NAM and RGEM to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah that is what could happen if things were to phase more/earlier. Taking about phasing with the southern low? I think if that were to occur too early we could see some rain. If its a bit later we could see decent amounts. Its not even onshore yet and it's going to be here in 3 days. Crazy how the energy just cruises a long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z RGEM shows some nice pockets of moderate to heavy snow over southern Minnesota down into Iowa early Monday. The rain/snow line looks further south on both the 12z NAM and RGEM to me. to this trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z ggem up to 48 hour does look like the phasing could occur a bit later. I have a feeling this may come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z ggem up to 48 hour does look like the phasing could occur a bit later. I have a feeling this may come down to nowcasting. Does this mean the system will go further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Baro, what do you think about the coastal?.. Seriously that's like number 5. Only thing is that they do not have the cold air this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z ggem up to 48 hour does look like the phasing could occur a bit later. I have a feeling this may come down to nowcasting. I don't *think* the GGEM is running yet? Thus i believe you are/were looking at yesterdays 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't *think* the GGEM is running yet? Thus i believe you are/were looking at yesterdays 12z run. i think that's the 12z rgem at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't *think* the GGEM is running yet? Thus i believe you are/were looking at yesterdays 12z run. I look at This. A few hours before each run of the GGEM it goes out to 48 hours. Not sure if thats the regional RGEM or a sneak peek of the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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