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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential


A-L-E-K

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How so? I thought it was the name given to orographically induced lows that form in Alberta and then rapidly move across the northern tier of the U.S...

b_i has some specific criteria. I'm not sure if it's just his or if it's universally accepted by meteorologists. I would guess it wouldn't qualify as a clipper for him because at H5 it appears to be a full latitude trough, rather than a low amplitude ripple.

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This one doesn't move rapidly imo. 18z GFS gives S. Wi snow from hr 69 until hr 87. Usually clippers are done in 3-4 hours.

I think it's a pac. NW low just like the last one and it's stronger because of the baroclinic zone or something along those lines.

I didnt think it was a clipper though.

I think one of the things helping us is it pivots right over southern WI, as opposed to pivoting somewhere up in MN like usual. I just figured that was because the monster Arctic high behind it is pushing it south.

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This one doesn't move rapidly imo. 18z GFS gives S. Wi snow from hr 69 until hr 87. Usually clippers are done in 3-4 hours.

I think it's a pac. NW low just like the last one and it's stronger because of the baroclinic zone or something along those lines.

I didnt think it was a clipper though.

3-4 hours is a bit too fast, most that I can remember here are atleast a solid 6-8hrs.

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just saw Tom Skilling and he says not to trust models yet because upper air data is to sparse with system out over the Pacific...S**t you not............:lol::stun:

A different Met from GRR is saying the same as well.

.LONG TERM...(410 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011)

(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION WAS ON THE STORM EXPECTED FOR

EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST OFF

HAVE MOVED THE SNOW IN FASTER AND HAVE NOW GONE WITH LIKELY POPS

STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. THE REASON FOR THE

QUICKER MOVEMENT IS THAT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO NOT

MERGE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WEAKER AND FASTER SYSTEM

INITIALLY. THIS SLOWER PHASING HAS SEVERAL OTHER CONSEQUENCES.

THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER

MIDWEST RATHER THAN ONE ORIGINATING FROM OUR SW. THIS WILL MEAN A

WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS GULF MOISTURE INFLUENCE. HOWEVER...IF THE

MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO

THE SYSTEM AS IT IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTENSIFICATION WILL

OCCUR. THIS MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT SNOW

THAT WE SEE FROM THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE INDICATED CHANGE IN THE

EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MAKES ONE WONDER HOW GOOD OF A HANDLE THE

MODELS HAVE ON THIS ONE. THE STORM ITSELF IS ONLY JUST ENTERING THE

GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...SO GOOD SAMPLING IS STILL A DAY OR

SO AWAY.

BOTTOM LINE THERE WILL STILL BE SNOW MOVING IN...NOW LOOKING LIKE

MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EARLIER

EXPECTED. I WOULD GIVE A BALLPARK GUESS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. HAVE

LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THROUGH THE

MORNING. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ON TUESDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF

ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

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If the two streams phased wouldnt that bring a further NW track other than a southern low they mention?

Depends on where the phase takes place. That ofcourse is assuming as well the models have a good handle on where the northern system tracks and or dives as well. As for if, where, or when that might happen your guess is as good as mine.

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Depends on where the phase takes place. That ofcourse is assuming as well the models have a good handle on where the northern system tracks and or dives as well. As for if, where, or when that might happen your guess is as good as mine.

It seems they aren't alone. Sure it hasnt been sampled and yes the models are showing a more potent north wave. But reading these from the Extended discussions from the NWS and watching This TWC video, seems to me they are leaning towards better phasing and a more dominant southern wave tracking west of the apps.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND

THEN TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

THIS NONETHELESS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR

MAINTAINING FOR A LONGER PERIOD A GREATER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE

AMPLITUDE ON THE HIGHER SPECTRUM OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS

ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO AN INCREASED

OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM

DIGGING/AMPLITUDE WITH BOTH THE WRN US AND N-CENTRAL US SYSTEMS

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK

NWS

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When I saw the model mess developing, I decided to wait until the system was on-shore, or at least sampled better.

My jury is still out, as it were, I'll wait until tomorrow night before I either cry because we are going to get a crappy mix event, or cheer because we are going to get a 3"-5" snowfall. Right now, either solution is possible, and I am not putting my eggs in either basket.

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When I saw the model mess developing, I decided to wait until the system was on-shore, or at least sampled better.

My jury is still out, as it were, I'll wait until tomorrow night before I either cry because we are going to get a crappy mix event, or cheer because we are going to get a 3"-5" snowfall. Right now, either solution is possible, and I am not putting my eggs in either basket.

Same here. I have sat and stared but I want everything to come into form. I would be lying if I felt confident on this but I do not. I see both potentials. Is this a December 12th storm for Ohio or back to a more cutter with rain down this way. Being Ohio it would be warm surges for rain but if that low cuts so far to the west, I have to think that another piece will form down south and I could be far enough west for back end something. I am on the fence. I hate being on there but the top levels are still figuring out so trying to guess anything at the surface is a crap shoot. RA/ZR/IP/SN is all good candidates for parts of the storm coming up.

Josh

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Same here. I have sat and stared but I want everything to come into form. I would be lying if I felt confident on this but I do not. I see both potentials. Is this a December 12th storm for Ohio or back to a more cutter with rain down this way. Being Ohio it would be warm surges for rain but if that low cuts so far to the west, I have to think that another piece will form down south and I could be far enough west for back end something. I am on the fence. I hate being on there but the top levels are still figuring out so trying to guess anything at the surface is a crap shoot. RA/ZR/IP/SN is all good candidates for parts of the storm coming up.

Josh

One hot mess right now...

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