BeastFromTheEast Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol... you folks are biting on anything the 18Z GFS spit out. A Tropical Storm in S TX/NE MX @ hour 240? Come on now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How so? I thought it was the name given to orographically induced lows that form in Alberta and then rapidly move across the northern tier of the U.S... b_i has some specific criteria. I'm not sure if it's just his or if it's universally accepted by meteorologists. I would guess it wouldn't qualify as a clipper for him because at H5 it appears to be a full latitude trough, rather than a low amplitude ripple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This one doesn't move rapidly imo. 18z GFS gives S. Wi snow from hr 69 until hr 87. Usually clippers are done in 3-4 hours. I think it's a pac. NW low just like the last one and it's stronger because of the baroclinic zone or something along those lines. I didnt think it was a clipper though. I think one of the things helping us is it pivots right over southern WI, as opposed to pivoting somewhere up in MN like usual. I just figured that was because the monster Arctic high behind it is pushing it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just saw Tom Skilling and he says not to trust models yet because upper air data is to sparse with system out over the Pacific...S**t you not............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This one doesn't move rapidly imo. 18z GFS gives S. Wi snow from hr 69 until hr 87. Usually clippers are done in 3-4 hours. I think it's a pac. NW low just like the last one and it's stronger because of the baroclinic zone or something along those lines. I didnt think it was a clipper though. 3-4 hours is a bit too fast, most that I can remember here are atleast a solid 6-8hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just saw Tom Skilling and he says not to trust models yet because upper air data is to sparse with system out over the Pacific...S**t you not............ guru must of emailed him 100 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just saw Tom Skilling and he says not to trust models yet because upper air data is to sparse with system out over the Pacific...S**t you not............ Anyone wanna dispute Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just saw Tom Skilling and he says not to trust models yet because upper air data is to sparse with system out over the Pacific...S**t you not............ A different Met from GRR is saying the same as well. .LONG TERM...(410 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011) (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION WAS ON THE STORM EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST OFF HAVE MOVED THE SNOW IN FASTER AND HAVE NOW GONE WITH LIKELY POPS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. THE REASON FOR THE QUICKER MOVEMENT IS THAT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO NOT MERGE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WEAKER AND FASTER SYSTEM INITIALLY. THIS SLOWER PHASING HAS SEVERAL OTHER CONSEQUENCES. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST RATHER THAN ONE ORIGINATING FROM OUR SW. THIS WILL MEAN A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS GULF MOISTURE INFLUENCE. HOWEVER...IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THIS MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT SNOW THAT WE SEE FROM THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE INDICATED CHANGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MAKES ONE WONDER HOW GOOD OF A HANDLE THE MODELS HAVE ON THIS ONE. THE STORM ITSELF IS ONLY JUST ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...SO GOOD SAMPLING IS STILL A DAY OR SO AWAY. BOTTOM LINE THERE WILL STILL BE SNOW MOVING IN...NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. I WOULD GIVE A BALLPARK GUESS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ON TUESDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 A different Met from GRR is saying the same as well. If the two streams phased wouldnt that bring a further NW track other than a southern low they mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If the two streams phased wouldnt that bring a further NW track other than a southern low they mention? Depends on where the phase takes place. That ofcourse is assuming as well the models have a good handle on where the northern system tracks and or dives as well. As for if, where, or when that might happen your guess is as good as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Depends on where the phase takes place. That ofcourse is assuming as well the models have a good handle on where the northern system tracks and or dives as well. As for if, where, or when that might happen your guess is as good as mine. It seems they aren't alone. Sure it hasnt been sampled and yes the models are showing a more potent north wave. But reading these from the Extended discussions from the NWS and watching This TWC video, seems to me they are leaning towards better phasing and a more dominant southern wave tracking west of the apps. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS NONETHELESS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR MAINTAINING FOR A LONGER PERIOD A GREATER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE ON THE HIGHER SPECTRUM OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO AN INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE WITH BOTH THE WRN US AND N-CENTRAL US SYSTEMS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 When I saw the model mess developing, I decided to wait until the system was on-shore, or at least sampled better. My jury is still out, as it were, I'll wait until tomorrow night before I either cry because we are going to get a crappy mix event, or cheer because we are going to get a 3"-5" snowfall. Right now, either solution is possible, and I am not putting my eggs in either basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z NAM popping a 1000mb sfc low in the western TX PH at 72hrs with an 1004mb elongated sfc low across NE/IA/MN/WI and into canada. 850mb 0 degree isotherm lying across northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 any word from Guru on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 any word from Guru on the NAM? southern low is really going to get going and cut. chicago is going to be dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 A different Met from GRR is saying the same as well. Ahhh RAOB's are useless....just kidding........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 southern low is really going to get going and cut. chicago is going to be dumped on. nam looks poppin need Guru confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 When I saw the model mess developing, I decided to wait until the system was on-shore, or at least sampled better. My jury is still out, as it were, I'll wait until tomorrow night before I either cry because we are going to get a crappy mix event, or cheer because we are going to get a 3"-5" snowfall. Right now, either solution is possible, and I am not putting my eggs in either basket. Same here. I have sat and stared but I want everything to come into form. I would be lying if I felt confident on this but I do not. I see both potentials. Is this a December 12th storm for Ohio or back to a more cutter with rain down this way. Being Ohio it would be warm surges for rain but if that low cuts so far to the west, I have to think that another piece will form down south and I could be far enough west for back end something. I am on the fence. I hate being on there but the top levels are still figuring out so trying to guess anything at the surface is a crap shoot. RA/ZR/IP/SN is all good candidates for parts of the storm coming up. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Same here. I have sat and stared but I want everything to come into form. I would be lying if I felt confident on this but I do not. I see both potentials. Is this a December 12th storm for Ohio or back to a more cutter with rain down this way. Being Ohio it would be warm surges for rain but if that low cuts so far to the west, I have to think that another piece will form down south and I could be far enough west for back end something. I am on the fence. I hate being on there but the top levels are still figuring out so trying to guess anything at the surface is a crap shoot. RA/ZR/IP/SN is all good candidates for parts of the storm coming up. Josh One hot mess right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Man what a jumbled mess on 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z GFS looks like the 12z/13 EURO with a more developed coastal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z gfs suggests front end snow showers w/ back end rain showers and possibly a brief switch back to snow at the very end for central OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Man what a jumbled mess on 00z... Yep, and it looks like after the initial clipper that there is trying to be southern development unless i see wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yep, and it looks like after the initial clipper that there is trying to be southern development unless i see wrong? Yeah I was thinking that too. Were far from a clear solution now. Which model will lead the way coming in with a real solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 00z GFS trying to stay mostly snow here (what little precip there is). But when the low level thermal profile looks like this: it doesn't inspire great confidence in the precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Hopefully the idea of quicker developing coastal gains some traction. It wouldn't help as far as QPF amounts but it would increase the chance of maintaing an ageostrophic flow and thus reducing the warming/rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Interesting...Local met here saying late day rain/snow mix monday night changing to all snow all tuesday with nothing real heavy but because of a long duration a few inches of snow is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This time next week looks quite frigid!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS has a high of 5 in southern Ohio next Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Per GFS BUFKIT, YYZ stays all snow on Tuesday. Bl temp gets to about 0.5c at its max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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