wxdudemike Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 looks like several of the gfs ensemble members are also relatively north and warm for next week's 'storm'. Yeah and on the Euro the dual lows kill us. Southern one pulls in upper level cold air for all snow, but the northern low creates WAA so we get snow falling into above freezing air so it melts on contact with the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro gives a potential ice event late next week for many parts of MO and IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah and on the Euro the dual lows kill us. Southern one pulls in upper level cold air for all snow, but the northern low creates WAA so we get snow falling into above freezing air so it melts on contact with the ground. watch the thumbs down dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro gives a potential ice event late next week for many parts of MO and IL ya know, that reminds me, it's been a long time since central ohio has had a good ole fashioned icestorm. In fact Dec'04 may have been the last one...wow. knock on wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm assuming you are a meteoroligist given the red tag. Any thoughts on the storm potential? I really don't have too many thoughts on storm potential at this time. I'm not any good at forecasting beyond 5 days so I don't really bother. With that said, I am excited about the storm potential with this as it will of course come down to nrn stream and srn stream speed and interaction. Trends of the AO/NAO do support less suppression and a potential cutter. Should be fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I really don't have too many thoughts on storm potential at this time. I'm not any good at forecasting beyond 5 days so I don't really bother. With that said, I am excited about the storm potential with this as it will of course come down to nrn stream and srn stream speed and interaction. Trends of the AO/NAO do support less suppression and a potential cutter. Should be fun to follow. As long as it cuts through Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As long as it cuts through Ohio That would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I do see the teleconnections are looking good for this possible event. Curious if a neutral to positive NAO and possible transfers to coastals have any coorelation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 well i posted my thoughts on the upcoming pattern elsewhere, ill post them here too i guess since this is the relevant event ---------- for the North Country and international border region, ottawa-montreal corridor.. obviously there will be disappointment and frustration yet again misisng another big storm S and E......though it looks as though NVt has done ok. pattern looks promising for continued increased snow chances moving forward, best opening since janaury 2009. i menitoned last week that it was enocuraging seeing the W-E moving systems appearing and not get eaten up by the block. indeed, the past week has featured a change and at least temporary end to the east coast dominated pattern as we see the breakdown of the NAO and slight rise of the AO (at least temporarily if not longer?..)....this was evidenced by the 6 inch snowfall in ottawa over the weekend and 2 clippers last week. dont be fooled by the current storm miss just to our S and E, with snow from toronto through upstate to maine.......this is a return to NORMAL climo and standard storm and snowtrack for this time of year.....NOT the anomalous snow hole reinforcing tracks we have been seeing previously. doesnt mean you cant get screwed by other means, but it wont be by the same ole same ole means.....overall our chances are significantly on the rise for the first time in a long while.....hopefully we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As long as it cuts through Kentucky Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Fixed Incorrectly fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As long as it cuts through Chicago. Fixed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 well i posted my thoughts on the upcoming pattern elsewhere, ill post them here too i guess since this is the relevant event ---------- for the North Country and international border region, ottawa-montreal corridor.. obviously there will be disappointment and frustration yet again misisng another big storm S and E......though it looks as though NVt has done ok. pattern looks promising for continued increased snow chances moving forward, best opening since janaury 2009. i menitoned last week that it was enocuraging seeing the W-E moving systems appearing and not get eaten up by the block. indeed, the past week has featured a change and at least temporary end to the east coast dominated pattern as we see the breakdown of the NAO and slight rise of the AO (at least temporarily if not longer?..)....this was evidenced by the 6 inch snowfall in ottawa over the weekend and 2 clippers last week. dont be fooled by the current storm miss just to our S and E, with snow from toronto through upstate to maine.......this is a return to NORMAL climo and standard storm and snowtrack for this time of year.....NOT the anomalous snow hole reinforcing tracks we have been seeing previously. doesnt mean you cant get screwed by other means, but it wont be by the same ole same ole means.....overall our chances are significantly on the rise for the first time in a long while.....hopefully we can cash in. Hopefully, given this winter has been a bust so far. At least this January hasn't been as bad as 2002 and 2006. It would be really nice if we could cash in on some snow on the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As long as it cuts through Ohio Agree.. but it needs to come out of the SW and phase in Texas and head north East..not come out of the NW and cut threw Ohio!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Agree.. but it needs to come out of the SW and phase in Texas and head north East..not come out of the NW and cut threw Ohio!! No I agree with you here, we need a nice solid Texas low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 No I agree with you here, we need a nice solid Texas low. yes, yes we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hopefully, given this winter has been a bust so far. At least this January hasn't been as bad as 2002 and 2006. It would be really nice if we could cash in on some snow on the 16th. we'll get some snow this weekend, then a couple more chances next week.....at some point behind one of those systems, the polar express may be tapped very different pattern we are going into hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 341 PM CST WED JAN 12 2011 .DISCUSSION... /333 PM CST WED JAN 12 2011/ VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TGT AS THE STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH MO IL TGT AND THU. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC WIND TO DIMINISH TGT. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DECREASING THIS AFTN. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WIND LATE TGT/EARLY THU MRNG...PLUS THE NEW SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE CWA. LOWS TGT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEAR ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF NERN AND CNTRL MO NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW COVER EXISTS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THU AFTN AS MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S-SWLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/850 MB RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS E-SE OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEARD OF A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB TROUGH. THERE MAY BE MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THU AFTN AND EVNG AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH THU NGT. WILL GO ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRI NGT AND INTO SAT BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE CWA NEAR THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT. THE GFS MODEL DOES GENERATE LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SAT NGT MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY JUST BE SOME FLURRIES. SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO MON BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN S OF THE CWA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM MON AFTN INTO TUE AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THIS WILL DETERMINE NOT ONLY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA BUT ALSO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS MOST CORRECT. GKS Translation: We have no idea what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 LOT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 30F AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SOME ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WHILE IT IS WAY TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAKER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 DTX THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE SNOWFALL FROM TIME TO TIME...NAMELY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL BREAKS ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TYPE OF WEATHER WE WILL GET DEPENDS GREATLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH TRACKS AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTS IN. THE GFS MODEL TAKES THIS TROUGH FAIRLY FAR NORTH...WRAPPING IN ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH ENOUGH SEPARATION FOR LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM MODEL TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE GFS BUT IS A TOUCH SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MODEL VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN WILL NOT ALTER THE FORECAST FROM A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW TO INCLUDE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN UNTIL THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THIS SYSTEM WILL WRAP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES CLEARER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Incorrectly fixed Seasonal trends FTL or FTW depending on how you look at it. Honestly, I just want some type of significant storm that doesn't give MSP or the EC heavy snowfall... the "in-between" has had the shaft with synoptic snows all winter. Time for the eastern lakes to cash in for a change. I'm just happy the Euro is not showing a cutter. Once it cuts it doesn't often go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Seasonal trends FTL or FTW depending on how you look at it. Honestly, I just want some type of significant storm that doesn't give MSP or the EC heavy snowfall... the "in-between" has had the shaft with synoptic snows all winter. Time for the eastern lakes to cash in for a change. I'm just happy the Euro is not showing a cutter. Once it cuts it doesn't often go back. Yea it's pretty much looking like a wash for here, but at least there is still plenty of time for things to get better. I'd rather get some ZR rather than just rain. 6 days, and this winter a lot can change, that is one thing that is certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Seasonal trends FTL or FTW depending on how you look at it. Honestly, I just want some type of significant storm that doesn't give MSP or the EC heavy snowfall... the "in-between" has had the shaft with synoptic snows all winter. Time for the eastern lakes to cash in for a change. I'm just happy the Euro is not showing a cutter. Once it cuts it doesn't often go back. These comments are getting old. As discussed earlier, MSP is not that far above average. Take out the northern plains blizzard, and we are a tad below normal. This is the first winter MSP has been at/above normal in almost a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 People need to stop saying I hope MSP doesnt get snow....of course I want my area to get hammered everytime but it just doesn't happen. MSP relies on synoptic snows and has no lake effect whatsoever as many of us do. I'm happy to see them get snow if I can't have it. Not trying to be an a** but i just want everyone here to be happy for each other lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 People need to stop saying I hope MSP doesnt get snow....of course I want my area to get hammered everytime but it just doesn't happen. MSP relies on synoptic snows and has no lake effect whatsoever as many of us do. I'm happy to see them get snow if I can't have it. Not trying to be an a** but i just want everyone here to be happy for each other lol Yes fully agreed, and I am not wishing other regions to do crappy with a storm threat so my own region scores. I know NEOH didn't mean that literally though--nor would it bother me if he did--it has just become annoying and honestly quite old reading the same comment about MSP "scoring" over and over again. Take out one anomalous storm and the region is at or below normal. As mentioned in another thread, the past decade of poor winters for MSP/southern MN has become the new "norm", and a lot of folks are surprised that MN actually does average a decent amount of synoptic snowfall per year. Let's squash that belief here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 These comments are getting old. As discussed earlier, MSP is not that far above average. Take out the northern plains blizzard, and we are a tad below normal. This is the first winter MSP has been at/above normal in almost a decade. weren't you way over in 03-04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 As long as it cuts through Ohio interestingly this last storm cut thru ohio.... and we actually did better then most places up there. Strange year indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 interestingly this last storm cut thru ohio.... and we actually did better then most places up there. Strange year indeed. Yeah I am surprised it didn't come with a warm tongue and major dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I know you mentioned Bowling Ball...we shall see....i think blocking relaxes to allow something to cut.....on a more SW/NE basis...should wash all Ohioans snow out ala New Years weekend Really..wow..as long as our snow is gone..all is well...unreal!! What is it about us ohio people that most here don't like?? I truly don't understand!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Really..wow..as long as our snow is gone..all is well...unreal!! What is it about us ohio people that most here don't like?? I truly don't understand!! he said he was just joking, its just like me saying i'd like to see all of the midwest's snow wiped out and i get 2 feet of snow just wishcasting for his own backyard. BTW i actually do hate ohio but then again i'm a Michigan fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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