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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential


A-L-E-K

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MKX

GOOD AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. SFC CYCLOGENESIS

OCCURS AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC

LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z

MON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TO THE NRN PORTION OF LWR MICHIGAN BY

06Z TUE. GOOD UVV WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT Q-VECTOR

CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH. THE NAM BRINGS THE H8 0C LINE INTO THE

SW PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. BUT...THIS IS OUT OF LINE

WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL BE

INITIALLY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH WITH EXPECTED EVAPORATIVE

COOLING. WE SHOULD GET ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS BY

THE TIME IT DIMINISHES/ENDS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. LIQ/SNOW RATIOS

WILL LOWER TO 8-11 TO 1 WITH TIME

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MKX

GOOD AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. SFC CYCLOGENESIS

OCCURS AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC

LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z

MON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TO THE NRN PORTION OF LWR MICHIGAN BY

06Z TUE. GOOD UVV WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT Q-VECTOR

CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH. THE NAM BRINGS THE H8 0C LINE INTO THE

SW PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. BUT...THIS IS OUT OF LINE

WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL BE

INITIALLY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH WITH EXPECTED EVAPORATIVE

COOLING. WE SHOULD GET ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS BY

THE TIME IT DIMINISHES/ENDS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. LIQ/SNOW RATIOS

WILL LOWER TO 8-11 TO 1 WITH TIME

thumbsdownsmileyanim.gifyikes.png Ugly type of snow.

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It looks like it's trying to go back where is started... big mess for sure. Hopefully overtime it will phase fully.

We can only hope. It goes to show what type of scenario we have here--and how close this can be to either a significant event to something relatively weak. Through 60 hrs it looks pretty much the same in the height field/vorticity fields--it is just phasing a very slightly weaker S/W. We are picking hairs here--the strength of that wave aloft is hardly different than the 12Z yet that mess happens.

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Baro, what do you think is the most realistic situation in your opinion?

I hate to say it, but from a forecasting standpoint, it is impossible to call. Thankfully the overall height field pattern and surface low track is well known, but the strength of the phasing wave can have a tiny amplitude difference and end up way weaker like this did. Nobody can truly know. I will say the 12Z GFS would have been one of the more ideal solutions, but the ensembles show it can be weak too like the 18z here.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

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I'm pretty sure this storm isn't really a true clipper either (maybe I'm wrong, I don't know) I thought a clipper came from Canada? Isn't this just a pacific NW type of low, kinda like we saw back in early Dec that tracked between Milwaukee and Chicago, or am I totally wrong here?

It does come from Canada, and develops in the lee of the rockies as any other Alberta clipper does.

In fact, this is one of the more classic ones we've seen this year imo.

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I'm pretty sure this storm isn't really a true clipper either (maybe I'm wrong, I don't know) I thought a clipper came from Canada? Isn't this just a pacific NW type of low, kinda like we saw back in early Dec that tracked between Milwaukee and Chicago, or am I totally wrong here?

It does come from Canada, and develops in the lee of the rockies as any other Alberta clipper does.

In fact, this is one of the more classic ones we've seen this year imo.

This storm is definitely not a clipper, really not even close.

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