A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 taking a quick look at fcst soundings on the 18z NAM, we would be close to having mixing problems here too depending on rate of the falling precip. I personally think we avoid mixing and 18z was a good bit colder vs the torchy 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 MKX GOOD AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TO THE NRN PORTION OF LWR MICHIGAN BY 06Z TUE. GOOD UVV WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH. THE NAM BRINGS THE H8 0C LINE INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. BUT...THIS IS OUT OF LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL BE INITIALLY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH WITH EXPECTED EVAPORATIVE COOLING. WE SHOULD GET ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS BY THE TIME IT DIMINISHES/ENDS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. LIQ/SNOW RATIOS WILL LOWER TO 8-11 TO 1 WITH TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z GFS i a tad slower then the 12z run and weaker with the sfc low at 999mb on the MN/IA border at 72hrs with decent snow to its east and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks horrendous and a big mess. Hopefully that weak phase scenario doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 MKX GOOD AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z MON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TO THE NRN PORTION OF LWR MICHIGAN BY 06Z TUE. GOOD UVV WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH. THE NAM BRINGS THE H8 0C LINE INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. BUT...THIS IS OUT OF LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL BE INITIALLY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH WITH EXPECTED EVAPORATIVE COOLING. WE SHOULD GET ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS BY THE TIME IT DIMINISHES/ENDS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. LIQ/SNOW RATIOS WILL LOWER TO 8-11 TO 1 WITH TIME Ugly type of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks horrendous and a big mess. Hopefully that weak phase scenario doesn't pan out. It looks like it's trying to go back where is started... big mess for sure. Hopefully overtime it will phase fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Jerry Hodak is here, Stevo6899'. Jerry what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this run is a bit further south and weaker. still giving northern IL atleast a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It looks like it's trying to go back where is started... big mess for sure. Hopefully overtime it will phase fully. We can only hope. It goes to show what type of scenario we have here--and how close this can be to either a significant event to something relatively weak. Through 60 hrs it looks pretty much the same in the height field/vorticity fields--it is just phasing a very slightly weaker S/W. We are picking hairs here--the strength of that wave aloft is hardly different than the 12Z yet that mess happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS is a big mess, but heading in the right direction..hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks horrendous and a big mess. Hopefully that weak phase scenario doesn't pan out. Sort of looks like the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Showing a more pronounced east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Showing a more pronounced east coast storm. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sort of looks like the 12z GGEM. Yeah it does, and it is definitely within the envelope of possibilities. Models will never key in well with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol these runs are gettign worse and worse thats a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here what I think might be setting up in future runs..... hey.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Baro, what do you think is the most realistic situation in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 , , DID ANYONE SEE NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Baro, what do you think is the most realistic situation in your opinion? I hate to say it, but from a forecasting standpoint, it is impossible to call. Thankfully the overall height field pattern and surface low track is well known, but the strength of the phasing wave can have a tiny amplitude difference and end up way weaker like this did. Nobody can truly know. I will say the 12Z GFS would have been one of the more ideal solutions, but the ensembles show it can be weak too like the 18z here. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well there is our S/W sitting out there way out in the Pacific NW of Hawaii. if anyone wants to integrate the equations of motion and determine how strong that eventual wave will be, be my guest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol... you folks are biting on anything the 18Z GFS spit out. A Tropical Storm in S TX/NE MX @ hour 240? Come on now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 For some reason I don't remember weatherguru from before. I like his enthusiasm, but we are reaching new weenie heights here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm pretty sure this storm isn't really a true clipper either (maybe I'm wrong, I don't know) I thought a clipper came from Canada? Isn't this just a pacific NW type of low, kinda like we saw back in early Dec that tracked between Milwaukee and Chicago, or am I totally wrong here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm pretty sure this storm isn't really a true clipper either (maybe I'm wrong, I don't know) I thought a clipper came from Canada? Isn't this just a pacific NW type of low, kinda like we saw back in early Dec that tracked between Milwaukee and Chicago, or am I totally wrong here? It does come from Canada, and develops in the lee of the rockies as any other Alberta clipper does. In fact, this is one of the more classic ones we've seen this year imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I always thought "Alberta Clippers" come in from the ND area and go SE really quickly, usually giving a quick snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I always thought "Alberta Clippers" come in from the ND area and go SE really quickly, usually giving a quick snowfall. Correct, and this one definitely does that http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_cpres_flash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm pretty sure this storm isn't really a true clipper either (maybe I'm wrong, I don't know) I thought a clipper came from Canada? Isn't this just a pacific NW type of low, kinda like we saw back in early Dec that tracked between Milwaukee and Chicago, or am I totally wrong here? It does come from Canada, and develops in the lee of the rockies as any other Alberta clipper does. In fact, this is one of the more classic ones we've seen this year imo. This storm is definitely not a clipper, really not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This storm is definitely not a clipper, really not even close. How so? I thought it was the name given to orographically induced lows that form in Alberta and then rapidly move across the northern tier of the U.S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This one doesn't move rapidly imo. 18z GFS gives S. Wi snow from hr 69 until hr 87. Usually clippers are done in 3-4 hours. I think it's a pac. NW low just like the last one and it's stronger because of the baroclinic zone or something along those lines. I didnt think it was a clipper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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