Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z NAM looks a lot like the EURO/GFS except it's a bit warmer, and weaker with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GB forecast discussion is saying 4-7 inches seems likley for their area: FOR MONDAY...ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING WAVE ALONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF GREEN BAY. THE 12Z WRF TOOK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF GREEN BAY TO ADD SOME DOUBT TO THE SNOW TOTALS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK. Not a bad little system if that panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z NAM not as bad as 12z, a little cooler and decently potent. A few inches is still in play, but i don't anticipate any major surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_084.shtml 18z NAM says what clipper bring on the southern wave. Well in other words it more wetter and more phased with southern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 here it comes BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS 850 MB RISING TO ABOUT +1 CELSIUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY....SO WILL EXPAND AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH TO INDY AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. nam is highly suspicious....it actually shows the inverse of the ohio river WTOD at 84. I've never seen that before...so i don't know what to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z is trying to crank up the southern wave at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Call it a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z is trying to crank up the southern wave at 84hr. we get it dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z is trying to crank up the southern wave at 84hr. I don't see it. Nothing looks radically different from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 nam is highly suspicious....it actually shows the inverse of the ohio river WTOD at 84. I've never seen that before...so i don't know what to call it. lol... CAD on the east side of the Bellefontaine ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And this is why for the most part I hate on air mets. One local nut went raving about a "big storm" coming on Tuesday and now he's going to have to retract that forecast entirely. what big storm? there never was a big storm was there, it always looked like a strung out mess i dont remember seeing a big storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 a little old, but this isn't hald bad agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nah I think will see a amplified southern stream system in next 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 18Z NAM is so phased early and so far N it brings in mixing issues down S. For now I wouldn't get too hung up yet on the NAM and that extreme N solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 what big storm? there never was a big storm was there, it always looked like a strung out mess i dont remember seeing a big storm.... Remember, we've got lower standards here. lol. GFS was showing a 6"er for 3 or 4 runs, which is what Anthony Farnell deemed a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nah I think will see a amplified southern stream system in next 36hrs. Hate to get all moneyman on you, but can you explain why, or direct me to the post in which you explain why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And this is why for the most part I hate on air mets. One local nut went raving about a "big storm" coming on Tuesday and now he's going to have to retract that forecast entirely. Who? CP24 has been calling for snowmaggedon for a couple of days now and especially today. To them, it's going to be a very end of the worldly 5cm tomorrow causing huge problems and riots, followed by a deathray of 2-4cm on Tuesday that may force the evacuation of Toronto. And, they are reporting on this storm and the "CP24 storm watch" every five minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Who? CP24 has been calling for snowmaggedon for a couple of days now and especially today. To them, it's going to be a very end of the worldly 5cm tomorrow causing huge problems and riots, followed by a deathray of 2-4cm on Tuesday that may force the evacuation of Toronto. And, they are reporting on this storm and the "CP24 storm watch" every five minutes. lolz. CP24 is an all news, all the time channel, so they live on sensationalism. The person calling for the big storm was Anthony Farnell of Global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nah I think will see a amplified southern stream system in next 36hrs. You may need to temper your thoughts a little WeatherGuru, but a southern stream wave may still be possible, but it isn't going to come in one big chunk but instead in at least two waves and will not be a big "explosive" southern low. The first ejecting wave is the one that links up with the Canadian Vortex and develops a surface low that heads N through the Great Lakes region, the second is a piece of energy dropping S. Here is the ECMWF 50 member ensemble mean. On the left is the mean, right the op. The left is in normalized standard deviations of the 500 hpa height field, and it gives an idea to the spread, consistency, and "confidence" in the mean solution using various mathematical functions. Short story, the ECMWF and other guidance are quite confident in a dominant northern wave but are less confident in where that secondary southern wave goes. The green is very low normalized standard deviations (northern stream around Great Lakes/northern plains/northern OV) while the purple shading is higher deviations down in the southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Hate to get all moneyman on you, but can you explain why, or direct me to the post in which you explain why. I think models gotten to wacked with northern stream system and eventual end result will be a stronger and more organized southern stream system. 18z NAM is hinting this at 84hr. 123.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Remember, we've got lower standards here. lol. GFS was showing a 6"er for 3 or 4 runs, which is what Anthony Farnell deemed a big snowstorm. lol cool i knew YOU didnt think it was going to be a big storm, never saw you buy any hype....just was wondering what would drive an onair met to do so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't see it. Nothing looks radically different from 12z. meh, he must be referring to the 1008 low just south of amarillo at 84 with some energy diving down in the trough from the southern rockies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Who? CP24 has been calling for snowmaggedon for a couple of days now and especially today. To them, it's going to be a very end of the worldly 5cm tomorrow causing huge problems and riots, followed by a deathray of 2-4cm on Tuesday that may force the evacuation of Toronto. And, they are reporting on this storm and the "CP24 storm watch" every five minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lolz. CP24 is an all news, all the time channel, so they live on sensationalism. The person calling for the big storm was Anthony Farnell of Global. Ah, never heard of him. Wow, the Global website weather section is the most hi-tech wx site I've seen yet from a Canadian news station! They even have a desktop app. Talk about the twilight zone. http://www.globalnews.ca/weather/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 No talking about the piece in FL. It may end up going way furthur NW and phase with northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think models gotten to wacked with northern stream system and eventual end result will be a stronger and more organized southern stream system. 18z NAM is hinting this at 84hr. if that low did take shape later as you suggest. It would probably head further east than your depiction. The northern low out runs it and would drive the baroclinic zone further south and east by the time the southern got it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 if that low did take shape later as you suggest. It would probably head further east than your depiction. The northern low out runs it and would drive the baroclinic zone further south and east by the time the southern got it's act together. Different map. 18z NAM 84hr 500mb vortex 123.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 No talking about the piece in FL. It may end up going way furthur NW and phase with northern stream. that ain't happen'n. That trough would have to be SEVERELY negative tilt already by 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You may need to temper your thoughts a little WeatherGuru, but a southern stream wave may still be possible, but it isn't going to come in one big chunk but instead in at least two waves and will not be a big "explosive" southern low. The first ejecting wave is the one that links up with the Canadian Vortex and develops a surface low that heads N through the Great Lakes region, the second is a piece of energy dropping S. Here is the ECMWF 50 member ensemble mean. On the left is the mean, right the op. The left is in normalized standard deviations of the 500 hpa height field, and it gives an idea to the spread, consistency, and "confidence" in the mean solution using various mathematical functions. Short story, the ECMWF and other guidance are quite confident in a dominant northern wave but are less confident in where that secondary southern wave goes. The green is very low normalized standard deviations (northern stream around Great Lakes/northern plains/northern OV) while the purple shading is higher deviations down in the southern plains. thank you for setting him straight....someone needed too. Yes its still possible we see something along the lines of the southern stream or in play but on the new run of the NAM, there isn't anything really showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 taking a quick look at fcst soundings on the 18z NAM, we would be close to having mixing problems here too depending on rate of the falling precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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