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January 17-19th Plains/MW/Lakes Storm Potential


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HR 84: Sub 1000 MB LOW in the LA Crosse area, LT-MOD precip across all of WI, and N. IL. 0z had the low just a tad farther SE at 96.

HR 90: Sub 1000 MB LOW right over Fond du Lac, WI. LT-MOD precip in E. WI, W. MI. LT precip surrounding that.

Could this be the one that gives much of Michigan it's first widespread decent snowfall? I think that regardless of track, much of Michigan (LP) will see some decent snow.

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The NAO is positive.

this is over for us.

Even Chicago can not excape getting rain sometimes while north of them gets cold and snow.

the hard part is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

we we will slowly lose the snowpack and never get warm..even now maybe one day in the 40s, maybe 40s...then more cold.

Just clarifying, but is this a winter/snow cancel call for places south of Chicago? :yikes:

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Madmaxweather has been saying like Hoosier's area to steel city or something like that the past 2 days without giving any reasoning.

Look over the past few pages of threads, weatherguru and madmaxweather have been saying its going south and never had a single reason on why it will.

I'm talking specifically about those two btw, not anyone else.

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guru and premier, well just guru.

Ah, ok.

Madmaxweather has been saying like Hoosier's area to steel city or something like that the past 2 days without giving any reasoning.

Look over the past few pages of threads, weatherguru and madmaxweather have been saying its going south and never had a single reason on why it will.

I'm talking specifically about those two btw, not anyone else.

Well a track across northern IN is probably still somewhat in play...not like it would take a gigantic move to make that happen...of course I'd lean more towards N IL/S WI right now myself (or more with the consensus of the models). Strength of the slp and strength of the cold push will be some factors no doubt. Either way, you're still getting snow. Enjoy.

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Madmaxweather has been saying like Hoosier's area to steel city or something like that the past 2 days without giving any reasoning.

Look over the past few pages of threads, weatherguru and madmaxweather have been saying its going south and never had a single reason on why it will.

I'm talking specifically about those two btw, not anyone else.

Its been the consensus among METS such as JB. I think the models are handling the southern energy incorrectly. It has been an error through the winter only to be corrected later on. We'll see what happens but a northern branch system is not out of the cards by any means either.

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Tim or Joe, you got an idea of what 2m temps are like for YYZ?

....on the EURO that is.

Snow/mix to start, transitioning to all rain/above 32º. Basically you go above freezing at 96 hours onward.

At the end of each period...along with 850's.

Tue 06z: -3.2...-2.6

Tue 12z: -0.1...-2.1

Tue 18z: 1.3...-2.4

Wed 00z: 0.7...-3.7

Wed 06z: -3.8...-7.0

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:axe: . Just going off the freebies, it looks like the transition would occur about midway through the advancement of the pcpn shield? Close?

last question, I promise.

Pretty much. Looking at my maps, it seems YYZ doesn't get a ton of precip overall though. There is some backside -sn for you.

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Please don't get that I'm playing debbie downer for the entire region. Not the case at all. But for LAF/central Indiana, our prospects are slim to none. Writing is on the wall with most of the guidance pointing to a warm/rainy solution for this neck of the woods. North of here looks to be very much in the game for accumulating snows.

Regardless, I won't clutter the thread with any more of my negativity for MBY. :lol::)

What's interesting is that our 850 mb temps really do no worse than flirt with 0C. If we had some heavy precip, we'd probably be able to stay cool enough to ensure all snow. But since precip looks to be lighter, that may allow just enough warming. I'm a little skeptical of the GFS thermal profiles holding us near freezing at the surface with strong southerly flow. I think a good forecast for us at this point would be "rain or snow" and I would expect IND to start trending that way soon.

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Could this be the one that gives much of Michigan it's first widespread decent snowfall? I think that regardless of track, much of Michigan (LP) will see some decent snow.

Could be, certainly hope so, but it depends what you consider decent, or widespread. The Dec 12th (5-7") and Jan 11th (3-6") snowstorms were pretty decent/widespread, especially for eastern MI, though they basically royally screwed western MI. On the flip side of the coin, though we havent seen any this winter, there usually are at least 1 or 2 storms in a season that totally screw SE MI and give the rest of the state snow. A clipper is always a great candidate to give snow to the entire state, and that has happened a few times this winter (and looks to happen tonight), but those are just relatively light falls. Again, I agree it would be great to see the entire state buried in snow from the same storm, but we shall see...

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Its been the consensus among METS such as JB. I think the models are handling the southern energy incorrectly. It has been an error through the winter only to be corrected later on. We'll see what happens but a northern branch system is not out of the cards by any means either.

This is the most common fundamental flaw in the analysis of the non-mets on the board. There is way too much 'the models are improperly handling this feature' without any explanation as to why, other than 'in other systems said feature was poorly handled'.

Different models have different biases based on how they are built and the assumptions they make (such as hydrostatic v. non-hydrostatic models, horizontal and vertical grid-spacing, etc.). If you are going to state that a certain model is poorly handling a feature, back it up with reasoning. Otherwise, ask one of the experts like Baroclinic. Too much armchair meteorology going on.

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The models have handled things fine.

There verification rate isn't a end point but rather a standard for that moment.

which means they are highly adaptive. As soon as something changed in the atmosphere the models quickly shifted there solutions towards the change.

That change could have been completely unexpected, we can't expect them to keep up with unexpected change. something from way outside of there range could have taken place and caused the southern vort to be weaker then 1st thought. So the models won't catch up with this until the process starts then they adjust.

So a change in the models is basically a change in mother natures plan.

since mother nature is one hell of a unpredictable b**ch we are at her every whim.

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This is the most common fundamental flaw in the analysis of the non-mets on the board. There is way too much 'the models are improperly handling this feature' without any explanation as to why, other than 'in other systems said feature was poorly handled'.

Different models have different biases based on how they are built and the assumptions they make (such as hydrostatic v. non-hydrostatic models, horizontal and vertical grid-spacing, etc.). If you are going to state that a certain model is poorly handling a feature, back it up with reasoning. Otherwise, ask one of the experts like Baroclinic. Too much armchair meteorology going on.

:lol:

:thumbsup:

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what is going on at 144 on the euro, that is a large area of H7 saturation going on with H8 saturated as well, cold air, and strong shortwave out west.

you should see the jma. It has the same thing at 144....takes low from tx to central NC then right up the coast by 192. Good hit for you...massive TNvalley hit, OV up to about i-70, then clobbers the coast.

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