Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol, no one was freaking out, then someone said people were freaking out and a shytstorm ensues. Phrases I’m looking forward to never hearing again “It hasn’t been sampled” and “anything can happen”, it has been sampled, and anything most certainly can’t happen. Some people were hoping for a classic panhandle hooker, looks pretty unlikely. Some will still see snow, lets move on. I gave up after the 00z runs. I have seen this played out one too many times this winter and know how it works. So all is good. But some do need to get real. Not just those in hype or downplay mode either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite good for who? Yourself and those in MN again perhaps? The southern solution would have worked out alot better for more folks in these parts. This screws alot more people. Lets not kid ourselves here. Tired and old. I won't even bother with this silly comment except to say we are near or just a tad above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 disagree and it's been rehashed multiple times. That's fine but I know that I will take a RAOB network over satellite and ship data every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Alek you are just wrong, the Pacific other than ship and satellite is a vast data void. So to say it has been sampled is about as loose of the term as you can get. I've read (I think Baro_inst may have posted it) that the quality of satellite data has progressed to the point where it's almost as reliable as RAOB data. I'm guessing there's some dissension within the met community about that claim though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z GFS isn't terrible for IA, WI, N IL and MI. 2m temps imply they all stay AOB 32º for the vast duration of the precip/event. Granted it's not copious amounts of QPF, but another moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I've read (I think Baro_inst may have posted it) that the quality of satellite data has progressed to the point where it's almost as reliable as RAOB data. I'm guessing there's some dissension within the met community about that claim though. Yeah I just know how things have been even this year with systems out in the Ocean and then what happens when they get into the RAOB network. It might be believed that it is almost as reliable, but I am highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Tired and old. I won't even bother with this silly comment except to say we are near or just a tad above normal. Point is that IS why you prefer that over the southern solution. lets not kid anyone. Nothing wrong with wanting it in your backyard. Heck everyone here does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I've read (I think Baro_inst may have posted it) that the quality of satellite data has progressed to the point where it's almost as reliable as RAOB data. I'm guessing there's some dissension within the met community about that claim though. With the wind fields yes, and even thermal profiles with the satellite soundings. It is a common misconception that the region in the Pacific is completely un-sampled. While it would be preferable to have obs, especially for moisture reasons, the improvements in satellite observations are rapidly catching up to in-situ observations like RAOBS. Replace them? Never, but we are no longer where we were 10-20 years ago where the oceans were data-void regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Point is that IS why you prefer that over the southern solution. lets not kid anyone. Nothing wrong with wanting it in your backyard. Heck everyone here does. Oh wow you never stop. I don't prefer any solution. I don't skew the forecast so it improves my BY forecast. Geez. If you can find anything that suggests otherwise let me know. I don't take facts and wish-cast them so I cash in. http://www.americanw...post__p__289547 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What the heck did I miss lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 With the wind fields yes, and even thermal profiles with the satellite soundings. It is a common misconception that the region in the Pacific is completely un-sampled. While it would be preferable to have obs, especially for moisture reasons, the improvements in satellite observations are rapidly catching up to in-situ observations like RAOBS. Replace them? Never, but we are no longer where we were 10-20 years ago where the oceans were data-void regions. Yeah maybe I should have said weak data region but the fact is the RAOB network > Satellite data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I come in peace...for all involved. But can we cut out the snippiness in this thread...please? EDIT: Geez that first line sounds perverted, but you what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 defintely have seen 2 east coast storms trend significantly when energy came ashore this year......Tip always banging that drum as you all know so i was aware of the change.....whether it was coincidence or not, i dont know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah I just know how things have been even this year with systems out in the Ocean and then what happens when they get into the RAOB network. It might be believed that it is almost as reliable, but I am highly skeptical. I say wait till we get a more typical nina pattern and or like we had in 07-08/08-09 and see what happens. I highly suspect a few are gonna be eating their words. Thats me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I come in peace...for all involved. But can we cut out the snippiness...please? yeah seriously what happened lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I come in peace...for all involved. But can we cut out the snippiness in this thread...please? I second this motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I come in peace...for all involved. But can we cut out the snippiness...please? Oh i am not upset. I was just pointing out his preferred solution is not what is preferred by most. Nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 defintely have seen 2 east coast storms trend significantly when energy came ashore this year......Tip always banging that drum as you all know so i was aware of the change.....whether it was coincidence or not, i dont know.. Yes because they are fully sampled at that point and the errors that would come with Sat/ship data or missing data are much less with the RAOBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Oh i am not upset. I was just pointing out his preferred solution is not what is preferred by most. Nothing more. I know you're not. Just a preventative damage control request for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 wow talk about some thick tension in here this morning lol I can barely see! lol anyways, 12z GFS is another 3-5" snowfall here...and another one at 132hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite honestly a southern solution would have been worse, and a lot of folks would have seen rain as I mentioned last night--especially in the southern OV. The current running GFS shows a northern solution can be quite good. Oh wow you never stop. I don't prefer any solution. I don't skew the forecast so it improves my BY forecast. Geez. If you can find anything that suggests otherwise let me know. I don't take facts and wish-cast them so I cash in. http://www.americanw...post__p__289547 See what i quoted above.. sheesh.. Depending on your view of what the southern OV is not many on here are from that area that is involved in THIS thread. Most are from north of the Ohio river which most consider the Northern OV region. Then you have those in the Lakes etc. Thus what YOU like prefer ( as stated in quoted post of yours ) is not what most others here prefer. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 wow talk about some thick tension in here this morning lol I can barely see! lol anyways, 12z GFS is another 3-5" snowfall here...and another one at 132hrs. was a good run for us, surface temps become a little sketchy, but it looks like we’d seen decent rates for a short time. Also, lol @ the difference between it and the 12z NAM inside 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 was a good run for us, surface temps become a little sketchy, but it looks like we’d seen decent rates for a short time. Also, lol @ the difference between it and the 12z NAM inside 84hrs. you guys better keep it down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just for the record, I didn't find what baroclinic_instability posted as being laced with ihby weenism. But that's me. I've been toggling between this board and work so I'm not paying real close attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just for the record, I didn't find what baroclinic_instibility posted as being laced with ihby weenism. But that's me. I've been toggling between this board and work so I'm not paying real close attention. I agree, my thing is that he mentioned lack of a Southern solution which caused people to jump off, where as I think there is a lot still on the table and probably will be for another day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 was a good run for us, surface temps become a little sketchy, but it looks like we’d seen decent rates for a short time. Also, lol @ the difference between it and the 12z NAM inside 84hrs. ya quite the warm push at 850mb at 78hrs here, 55kts. would be quite close temp wise but would another couple inches if that verified. gotta laugh at the snow its showing for next thursday, 0z didn't have anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Did I accidently click on the MA or NYC/Philly thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just for the record, I didn't find what baroclinic_instability posted as being laced with ihby weenism. But that's me. I've been toggling between this board and work so I'm not paying real close attention. Agree. IMO when he mentioned that the northern solution would be good for alot I took that as for this system your going to get some snow southeast of the sfc low like for my spot for example on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 you guys better keep it down... we're going to get so burried. ya quite the warm push at 850mb at 78hrs here, 55kts. would be quite close temp wise but would another couple inches if that verified. gotta laugh at the snow its showing for next thursday, 0z didn't have anything. southern phase or not, looks to be pretty dynamic, someone on the southern edge of where it stays all snow, should see some pretty heavy rates for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Point is that IS why you prefer that over the southern solution. lets not kid anyone. Nothing wrong with wanting it in your backyard. Heck everyone here does. The silliness will end here. One must attempt to defend their own actions when another is doing whatever they can to toss them under the bus. Harry: "Point is that IS why you prefer that over the southern solution. lets not kid anyone. Nothing wrong with wanting it in your backyard. Heck everyone here does." Then the later response by Harry is : "Depending on your view of what the southern OV is not many on here are from that area that is involved in THIS thread. Most are from north of the Ohio river which most consider the Northern OV region. Then you have those in the Lakes etc. Thus what YOU like prefer ( as stated in quoted post of yours ) is not what most others here prefer. Thats all. " Cut the act Harry and realize some folks do try and forecast what happens, not what benefits their backyard. http://www.americanw...post__p__289547 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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