baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks crappy. We need a amplified storm system to develop in TX/OK/AR and neg tilt and track up through Indy to CLE and will be good for IA/WI/IL/MI folks. I wouldn't bet on that. The CMC performs the worst amongst the global models with phasing waves--and that is why it is so amplified. Even then, the farthest south solution are positive/neutral tilt--so it would not be a bombing low but more frontal/advection driven precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I wouldn't bet on that. The CMC performs the worst amongst the global models with phasing waves--and that is why it is so amplified. Even then, the farthest south solution are positive/neutral tilt--so it would not be a bombing low but more frontal/advection driven precip. Yeah it was indicating that potential but it was more concentrated on frontal/advection driven precip which is why I see it was crap on the cold-sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well Skilling latest blog said EURO, NAVY, GFS, CANADIAN are showing 2.5 to 6.5 inches and mentions LES in final hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well Skilling latest blog said EURO, NAVY, GFS, CANADIAN are showing 2.5 to 6.5 inches and mentions LES in final hrs. This is an MSP/LSE/GRB/Suckville system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is an MSP/LSE/GRB/Suckville system. As always Chicago Storm provides great analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 As always Chicago Storm provides great analysis. He's a Falcons fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 As always Chicago Storm provides great analysis. pessimism is needed. He's a Falcons fan Falcons/Pats Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ok, GFS on Crack? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ALl I can say is the models are clueless, doing so poor this year.. unreal..not just this system, but even the clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ALl I can say is the models are clueless, doing so poor this year.. unreal..not just this system, but even the clippers. Please don't pull an Analog96 on us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ALl I can say is the models are clueless, doing so poor this year.. unreal..not just this system, but even the clippers. Models are doing just fine this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Models are doing just fine this year. Dwd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Wow, the GFS is cold after the storm. Wed/Thu/Fri highs around 10 and lows in the -10 to -20 range. Then another clipper type system, and then lows as low as -22 that following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Models are doing just fine this year. Yeah, you're right.. but it just seems like that, we have to wait until hour 42 to know what will occur. Last storm is an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm hearing from someone on another forum that the GGEM has a strong southern storm go through N. Tenn to Central NY. Sounds basically like a W. Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah, you're right.. but it just seems like that, we have to wait until hour 42 to know what will occur. Last storm is an example. This I will agree with. Certain patterns are going to be difficult for the guidance to handle. Overall though, this happens every winter, but the models of course are the same if not a slight improvement (the general trend has been improvement for the last 50 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm hearing from someone on another forum that the GGEM has a strong southern storm go through N. Tenn to Central NY. Sounds basically like a W. Apps runner. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...zA/cmcloop.html Lack of phasing, also that would be all rain for the n/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html Didn't look as good as i expected. Too much WAA somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Lack of phasing, also that would be all rain for the n/e Yeah exactly, CMC doesn't phase at the 66-72 hr period and the first wave dives S towards the GOM. For now, I give the CMC a very low probability of verifying since it performs poorly with these phase events. Not really sure why, but it sucks at phasing/breakdown of waves--and typically when the CMC looks like the GFS did 2-3 runs ago after the GFS has made changes and the GFS looks similar to the ECMWF, the CMC is wrong. Not a rule, but it often works out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GEM still gives WI/MI/MN areas .25-.5 with the n. stream system. That almost seems like a lock right now tbh. A N. stream system affecting those areas I should say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah exactly, CMC doesn't phase at the 66-72 hr period and the first wave dives S towards the GOM. For now, I give the CMC a very low probability of verifying since it performs poorly with these phase events. Not really sure why, but it sucks at phasing/breakdown of waves--and typically when the CMC looks like the GFS did 2-3 runs ago after the GFS has made changes and the GFS looks similar to the ECMWF, the CMC is wrong. Not a rule, but it often works out that way. I agree. Honestly I will not put to much stock into any solution atm. ..I think our little Clipper has potential tho.. Looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0Z ukie at hr 96 has 997 L near dubuque, ia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nam and Gfs have two different solutions.. nam is showing the solution that gfs showed at the 18z and 12z runs at hour 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nam and Gfs have two different solutions.. nam is showing the solution that gfs showed at the 18z and 12z runs at hour 84.. The NAM has its outer boundary conditions initialized by the previous run GFS since the NAM runs so early. In other words, the 0Z NAM is initialized by the 18Z GFS at its boundaries. In this flow the NAM is pretty worthless this far out for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 EURO is pretty similar to the ukie at 96. Has a sub 1000 mb low in ne. ia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 HR 102 it takes the low right over me pretty much. Farther north then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 someone please post the qpf with it if they get a chance. I just want to see if the euro is giving precip to stl like the gfs did, even if temps are borderline for ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 HR 102 it takes the low right over me pretty much. Farther north then 12z. not good for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 STL gets less then .1 QPF. WI/MN gets .5-.75 (clipper/2nd storm) qpf from both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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