michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'll pass on that low track... Yet the 0c line is much further south, ie all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z GFS further north than the 18z run but still a good hit for northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like a widespread of advisory type snows of 3-6+ from IA/S.MN/WI/IL/MI/IN/OH. Low pressure track looks suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yet the 0c line is much further south, ie all snow I'd be a bit leery of going by the thermal profile this far out, normally a track north of us doesn't keep the warm air away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Much different look not much in the way of WAA. I still like a southern low track that cuts somewhere between Hoosier and Steel City... This pretty far from that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Like this run. Looks like most places north of the Ohio River would stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I was thinking OK panhandle hooker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Please explain why you think a southern low idea is favorable. Just wanna know your reasoning why you think this will go farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Much different look not much in the way of WAA. I still like a southern low track that cuts somewhere between Hoosier and Steel City... This pretty far from that idea. You would rather have rain than all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Fairly unimpressive. Aside from its SW-NE track, it looks like a pseudo-clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'd be a bit leery of going by the thermal profile this far out, normally a track north of us doesn't keep the warm air away LOL you should be leary of anything this far out haha, compare the previous runs of the gfs, this 00z totally loses the big storm to the south basically. But verbatum this run is all snow, and I have seen that happen many times where a storm will track north and we stay all or mostly all snow, ESPECIALLY in mid-winter. Now, dry slot could be another story, but I cant even belive im talking specifics about a storm that the models are pretty clueless on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LOL you should be leary of anything this far out haha, compare the previous runs of the gfs, this 00z totally loses the big storm to the south basically. But verbatum this run is all snow, and I have seen that happen many times where a storm will track north and we stay all or mostly all snow, ESPECIALLY in mid-winter. Now, dry slot could be another story, but I cant even belive im talking specifics about a storm that the models are pretty clueless on. No I know Josh, I am just talking about this specific run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You would rather have rain than all snow? i think by "likes" he talking about likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks quite similar to the 12Z ECM op run regarding the northern stream pattern/phase, the track of the low, and the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks quite similar to the 12Z ECM op run regarding the northern stream pattern/phase, the track of the low, and the thermals. i was just gonna post it seemed to be like the euro. Hmmm, maybe Dr. No is getting his groove back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Fairly unimpressive. Aside from its SW-NE track, it looks like a pseudo-clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 i was just gonna post it seemed to be like the euro. Hmmm, maybe Dr. No is getting his groove back. It is about time. I am much more confident in the first 96 hours-it does seem like a better chance that the leading S/W will come out ahead of the cold air dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks quite similar to the 12Z ECM op run regarding the northern stream pattern/phase, the track of the low, and the thermals. Even the last few runs (12, 18z) when the GFS was showing a somewhat wetter storm, it never really looked that impressive at H5. Just this low amplitude blip in the mean flow that deepened modestly as it chugged along. Not really the setup I'd expect aloft for a big storm. Not sure if you think the models are correct in this regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Even the last few runs (12, 18z) when the GFS was showing a somewhat wetter storm, it never really looked that impressive at H5. Just this low amplitude blip in the mean flow that deepened modestly as it chugged along. Not really the setup I'd expect aloft for a big storm. Not sure if you think the models are correct in this regard? The wet solutions were wetter mainly due to the amplification and deeper diving trough and subsequent GOM fetch. Things are still real close here. Eventually what we are looking at here is a phase of either one or multiple low amplitude waves with the canadian vortex. The exact timing of that phase around 84-96 hrs determines how far S the trough develops. This is why we have seen such disparate solutions regarding the latitude of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Even the last few runs (12, 18z) when the GFS was showing a somewhat wetter storm, it never really looked that impressive at H5. Just this low amplitude blip in the mean flow that deepened modestly as it chugged along. Not really the setup I'd expect aloft for a big storm. Not sure if you think the models are correct in this regard? Phasing is a tough beast for the models to simulate. If all else were equal, higher resolution models will perform better in this regard. I give the ECMWF the edge here--and the fact the GFS is trending towards a ECM solution does not surprise me here since we are dealing with such a low amplitude phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The wet solutions were wetter mainly due to the amplification and deeper diving trough and subsequent GOM fetch. Things are still real close here. Eventually what we are looking at here is a phase of either one or multiple low amplitude waves with the canadian vortex. When that happens determines how far S the trough develops. This is why we have seen such disparate solutions regarding the latitude of the surface low. Well, so long as you think a wetter solution is plausible, I'll clench my towel firmly in my hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 At the very least the GGEM is going to be slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If you want a good laugh, check out the SREF spreads. SREF will struggle even more than the globals here in this pattern, but I still found this hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The wet solutions were wetter mainly due to the amplification and deeper diving trough and subsequent GOM fetch. Things are still real close here. Eventually what we are looking at here is a phase of either one or multiple low amplitude waves with the canadian vortex. The exact timing of that phase around 84-96 hrs determines how far S the trough develops. This is why we have seen such disparate solutions regarding the latitude of the surface low. That looks like what the 0z GGEM is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 you can tell the block is fading.. the gem has a clipper the gfs doesnt have and gives us 2-3 inches of snow. then is further north with the wave at day 4 and sprinkles. crazy. my guess is the gem is nuts on wave one and right on wave 2. and we are back to cold and rain here like most winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z GEFS mean provides the OP run with support: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That looks like what the 0z GGEM is doing. Ugh I hate those black and white maps. But yeah, after glancing, it is way more amplified. Really this forecast happens at about 72-78 hours. How the incoming west coast low amplitude wave interacts with the Canadian vortex--that determines how this all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks crappy. We need a amplified storm system to develop in TX/OK/AR and neg tilt and track up through Indy to CLE and will be good for IA/WI/IL/MI folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Skilling earlier: But the system with the greatest potential for sticking snow-production here next Monday night and Tuesday may be the one which was situated northwest of Hawaii beneath the "nose" (leading edge) of a powerhouse 225 mph Pacific jet stream late Wednesday. Jet stream winds of that strength are atypical and have been known to help spin-up vigorous storm systems. It makes this system one to monitor.The surface low it helps spin-up early next week is likely to move from Wyoming across Nebraska Monday and into downstate Illinois Tuesday. Not only will Gulf moisture be available to this potential storm, but so may lake moisture riding NNE winds on its North Side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A massive pacific storm with multiple waves and a 225mph powerhouse specific jet gonna give us a lousy 1-6 inches? Geeze the SREF esembles bring this north of Chicago givving me rain even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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