Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 2:38 PM, snowyles25 said: Not yet system up the east coast might just weazle out and looks to be a more organized OV low setting up on 12z NAM. Look at 500mb vort. Looks strong and more amplified possibly showing signs of a neg tilt: http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_060l.gif Look out if that 2nd northern piece catches up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 2:48 PM, Stebo48858 said: Look out if that 2nd northern piece catches up to it. Yeah I noticed that. That could be a full blown phase there and kaboom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow is the 12z NAM different. It's sort of what the GFS ensembles have been hinting at for a while. It's still too warm for anything significant ahead of the front, but it develops the ejecting ul features more robustly which sets up some deformation zone snows across the eastern Lakes Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm sure SSC's ears have perked up a little. 12z NAM is initially rain for YYZ, but then brings a pretty decent hit of snow with the changeover. If right, it could possibly put him over 30" for the season. EDIT: Too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:03 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Wow is the 12z NAM different. It's sort of what the GFS ensembles have been hinting at for a while. It's still too warm for anything significant ahead of the front, but it develops the ejecting ul features more robustly which sets up some deformation zone snows across the eastern Lakes Tuesday night. WeatherGuru been mentioning this for days to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I know many of you guys don't like analogs, and it is hard to find a good one for this storm, but March 4th - 5th, 2003 does show up a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:03 PM, Chicago WX said: I'm sure SSC's ears have perked up a little. 12z NAM is initially rain for YYZ, but then brings a pretty decent hit of snow with the changeover. If right, it could possibly put him over 30" for the season. EDIT: Too late. 84 hr NAM. Nuff said. But it's going to happen eventually. It's a nice lesson in not being a reactionary idiot, although if making that wager was the causal factor in my recent snow fortunes, I don't regret a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:05 PM, snowyles25 said: WeatherGuru been mentioning this for days to. Well it's a little different. The southern stream s/w, which is responsible for the coastal, is not the culprit. It's the northern stream s/w being slower, deeper, and closing off (at least at 850). He was mentioning the low over the Gulf moving northward and impacting the OV, which is still not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:05 PM, snowyles25 said: WeatherGuru been mentioning this for days to. Not quite, WeatherGuru was talking of a wave merger over the deep south with a Pandhandle Hooker bombing as it tracked N, obliterating Chicago and areas around it with a debilitating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:08 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 84 hr NAM. Nuff said. True. But the NAM has sniffed 'em out before. Although hasn't the GGEM been on the southern/eastern train too? Truthfully I haven't pay as much attention since all rain became likely for here...and that hasn't changed. It'll be interesting to see the rest of the 12z guidance. I hope it works out for you and the MI folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:07 PM, Powerball said: I know many of you guys don't like analogs, and it is hard to find a good one for this storm, but March 4th - 5th, 2003 does show up a few times. Looked it up and sounded to be a medicore TX pahandle hooker that dumped 4-8 inches in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:10 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Not quite, WeatherGuru was talking of a wave merger over the deep south with a Pandhandle Hooker bombing as it tracked N, obliterating Chicago and areas around it with a debilitating storm. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:12 PM, Chicago WX said: True. But the NAM has sniffed 'em out before. Although hasn't the GGEM been on the southern/eastern train too? Truthfully I haven't pay as much attention since all rain became likely for here...and that hasn't changed. It'll be interesting to see the rest of the 12z guidance. I hope it works out for you and the MI folks. Thanks Tim. The luck's cyclical. I'm sure it'll swing back in your favour eventually. Although 6" for LAF and only half way through January doesn't sound like it's too shabby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:14 PM, snowyles25 said: Looked it up and sounded to be a medicore TX pahandle hooker that dumped 4-8 inches in SE MI. Not quite per the snowfall map. It's probably a bit too far south and extreme too. Of course it's the 2nd top analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 06z HRW looks suspicous to at 48hr with northern and southern wave: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/06/images/hiresw_500_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:14 PM, snowyles25 said: Looked it up and sounded to be a medicore TX pahandle hooker that dumped 4-8 inches in SE MI. It was a frontal wave on an arctic front. Very low amplitude, very quick, just zipping along the baroclinic zone. Forget if it was 5 or 7" here, but for something as quick hitting as that, it wasn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 A few drops of rain, then 4-6" of cement per 12z NAM for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 JAnuary 7th, 1995 isn't an awful one either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:17 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Thanks Tim. The luck's cyclical. I'm sure it'll swing back in your favour eventually. Although 6" for LAF and only half way through January doesn't sound like it's too shabby? I have no complaints about this winter for here thus far...that's for sure. But we all know how it goes, lame cliche or not, you can't win 'em all. And in this case, I just hope somebody from our forum can score some snowfall out of this cluster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:19 PM, Powerball said: Not quite per the snowfall map. It's probably a bit too far south and extreme too. Of course it's the 2nd top analog. Ahh the infamous winter of 2002-03, where southeast MI saw a most unlikely snow scenario. As much as 70" reported in Detroits southern suburbs near the OH border (including 69.0" imby and 60.9" at DTW), with as little as 25" reported near Saginaw Bay (though 42.4" officially in Saginaw). As I recall the above storm was one of the first to hit the northern burbs harder. Had 4.1" at DTW with 3.1" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:29 PM, snowstormcanuck said: A few drops of rain, then 4-6" of cement per 12z NAM for YYZ. Yeah, as p-o'd as I was about this above-freezing-for-a-day-and-rain scenario, I could live with the 12z NAM. Still gives us at least 12 hours of above freezing temps (though no warmer than mid-30s, unless you believe MOS, always crappy in situations like this), so you figure the snowpack, which is currently 5-6", may go down to like 4", but with 3+ inches of deform snow, would end even better in the end. And as I mentioned yesterday, these every-other-day shovelable snows are really making some decent snowbanks, so 6" snowpack now looks a little better than the 6" snowpack in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:29 PM, snowstormcanuck said: A few drops of rain, then 4-6" of cement per 12z NAM for YYZ. How about Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:12 PM, Chicago WX said: True. But the NAM has sniffed 'em out before. [b}Although hasn't the GGEM been on the southern/eastern train too?[/b] Truthfully I haven't pay as much attention since all rain became likely for here...and that hasn't changed. It'll be interesting to see the rest of the 12z guidance. I hope it works out for you and the MI folks. Yes it has, and the key is more often than not its on the NW end of guidance, thus why its a red flag being further South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:38 PM, snowyles25 said: How about Chicago? ORD per NAM BUFKIT is a few hundreths of ZR, about 0.25" of rain, and then a couple of slushy inches of snow after 11z on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Take it FWIW, because IMO it's had mixed success this winter, but the 12z RGEM has a 1001mb low just NW of here over in IL at 48 hours. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Be careful with the NAM here, it is only 24 hours with respect to the GFS and the NAM "Phase Shift" problem is already rearing its ugly head. Check out the 500 hpa height field--the entire field from E-W is phase shifted westward--and it will probably get worse through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyles25 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:43 PM, Chicago WX said: Take it FWIW, because IMO it's had mixed success this winter, but the 12z RGEM has a 1001mb low just NW of here over in IL at 48 hours. http://www.weatherof...st/index_e.html Looks like NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ugh When Philly's snow and you're rain, you know you've entered sucktown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:10 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Not quite, WeatherGuru was talking of a wave merger over the deep south with a Pandhandle Hooker bombing as it tracked N, obliterating Chicago and areas around it with a debilitating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 3:45 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Be careful with the NAM here, it is only 24 hours with respect to the GFS and the NAM "Phase Shift" problem is already rearing its ugly head. Check out the 500 hpa height field--the entire field from E-W is phase shifted westward--and it will probably get worse through the run. What are some of the practical implications of this problem? Over-amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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