Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Doing my best to enjoy it... Yea, looked at Kevs pics, way dryer there. Trees are bent over all over power lines here, entire hillsides are completely white, looks like the Italian Alps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 There is literally no place to put the snow here in Dobbs Ferry between the Boxing Day storm's remnants, the Norlun that dropped 4", and the recent Miller B. I can't even imagine the impact of another big Nor'easter, especially if it's a snow and ice mix. Going to be very nasty on the streets especially after a period of brutally cold winter. I had more than just remnants from 12/26 then nine inches on Friday and 14 today and the snowbanks in my driveway are 5-6 feet high. Please don't but I'd love an 80 degree day right about now before the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yea, looked at Kevs pics, way dryer there. Trees are bent over all over power lines here, entire hillsides are completely white, looks like the Italian Alps. Definitely one to take pics of and enjoy. For me, this is why I read here all the time...just waiting for one good storm. There was a bit of cement that fell here at some point last night...but lots of fluff all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS ensembles were very good a week out too. The operational GFS was awful...consistently southeast of the ensembles for about a week. The thing with the NAM is...it's awful with synoptics in the 36-84 hour range...sometimes even earlier. Even if it had the better idea of the more dynamic coastal transfer and the tucked in solution...if it doesn't have the 500mb pattern close to correct..than it still remains of limited use. It makes more sense to use the globals for the general synoptic features but shift the surface low position further tucked in to account for non-hydrostatic processes instead of saying well the NAM was awesome here... OSU this I agree with 100% and it's a great line of logic. If you lived down to the SW in DC/western NJ etc it could be argued it was awful with synoptics until about H18/24. I said it a bunch of times, we could end up at the same place even if we got there differently. The NAM at 500 wanted to develop everything too early, drop 60" of snow in CT based on the ratios we saw, and give Maine/NH little. Over time it figured out that it would be a more reasonable 1-2" QPF in CT (did anything get close to 2" W.E. there?) and came around to a slightly later transfer which allowed the low to hit the northern areas. in the end I overestimated the impact of those errors probably because as you said I didn't understand that the non-hydrostatic processes came into play. Let's also be honest about one other thing. We've heard some of these same things in the past when the NAM busted and got bent over by the Euro in the exact same 36-72 hour leadup....so this time it worked out but I'm not convinced it was because the model was awesome...as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yea, looked at Kevs pics, way dryer there. Trees are bent over all over power lines here, entire hillsides are completely white, looks like the Italian Alps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 20" Final Great storm, great memories...aching back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Rays passed out but he had to get a half inch in that band, call it Twenty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Still getting light to moderate snow!! Reached 18"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well guys, I have to tune up my skis a little for another powder day then get a good nights sleep. I just want to say that participatingin this forum has added another wonderful dimension to snowstorms. I'm glad to know there are so many other people that share this affliction. I posted this pic earlier in the obs thread but here it is again from the height of the storm . 3-4" per hr band that set up here on the East Slope of the Berkshires Let's hope we all get many more chances to drive in whiteouts this Winter.lol I've said it before I'll say it again. Big Winter incoming, BIG BIG WINTER!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Scott, you think we rain in that next event,......I'm in Kev mode, now...the thought of warmth repulses me since we have suhc a great snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Rays passed out but he had to get a half inch in that band, call it Twenty? Remote sensing FTW lol. Does this mean he's not allowed to complain again this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Rays passed out but he had to get a half inch in that band, call it Twenty? No....I'm not passed out.....was just wating to get a last measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Scott, you think we rain in that next event,......I'm in Kev mode, now...the thought of warmth repulses me since we have suhc a great snowpack. Did you squeak 20"...we did here on the nose. Anyone know Logan's tally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Scott, you think we rain in that next event,......I'm in Kev mode, now...the thought of warmth repulses me since we have suhc a great snowpack. It's still out there, but it's a concern. I think it looks like a messy kind of storm potentially, and the euro op would imply a mix to snow for some. However, there are some warm solutions too. The euro op doesn't phase the energy coming out of Canada, which keeps the low separate and off the coast. John has noted a PNA rise too. Lets hope for those. It's possible we could have a swfe too, but I'm a little nervous for something milder. If I lived in the interior, I'd feel a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Did you squeak 20"...we did here on the nose. Anyone know Logan's tally? Here is that site that I promised you: http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Still getting light to moderate snow!! Reached 18"! Congrats Sam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Time to throw the ski pants back on and thoroughly survey the neighborhood one final time.....gotta get this one right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 No....I'm not passed out.....was just wating to get a last measurement. LOL you are a trooper, having the final Egg Nog of the day, feeling Euphoric naturally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I also think a general 12-20 for many was a reasonable forecast, but we all kind of new some would do better. The thing is, it's hard to go widespread 20"+ unless you are 100% certain, and I think there were a couple of small things that prevented that. However, many said it could happen because all of the key ingredients were available, but it's just tough to go that high for such a big area of real estate. Especially considering the progressive nature of the storm, everyone basically had one or two distinct opportunities to cash in over the span of 9 hours. If one or both had failed, this would be a whole different story. Practically everything went "right" for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The way I look at it, NAM had a good handle on the proverbial gory details while ECMWF signaled for nearly a week something big is on the way. It's a good way to look at it, Jerry - no doubt. It makes sense because the NAM mesoscale analytics are superior to the ECM's, whereas the ECM is stepwise more proficient than the GFS. Since this storm was heavily guided by nuance on smaller scales, it fit pretty well that things worked out as you describe - agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Ok, last one, but my friend just arrived and he said when he went through Peru a few minutes ago it was moderate snow there. There's going to be somwhere along the crest of the Berks ( Savoy, Windsor, Peru) that notches 40". Just -sn here presently. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 We picked up another .5" at least since the last measurement, will wait until 11 and get the final but new school measuring this was 7" here, about 4.5 otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 iPhone pix. Took some with the Nikon, too. Hoping for blue skies in the AM for some good post-storm pix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm surprised the Euro had track problems. We've had big dynamic storms before and it mostly always would be dead on at 12 hours lead time. The difference in the ACK track vs where it went was a foot of snow over EMA. NAM temp profiles were problematic down here, but there's no denying it nailed the track - albeit it did shift east over time, but that mainly had an effect of taking away precip in NJ and bringing it into Maine. Remember when it had the dynamics to drive 2-3" QPF in CT? IT gradually dumped that idea in favor of it winding up more as it progressed, and left CT with a solid 1.5-2.3 or so, and brought Maine/NH slowly into the picture. AN IDEA the euro had more right all along. It was within 50 miles of the track and then adjusted the final days to miss by about 25. Not bad considering the initial prog was 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I also think a general 12-20 for many was a reasonable forecast, but we all kind of knew some would do better. The thing is, it's hard to go widespread 20"+ unless you are 100% certain, and I think there were a couple of small things that prevented that. However, many said it could happen because all of the key ingredients were available, but it's just tough to go that high for such a big area of real estate. Tell me about it! lol. Every time I hung up the keyboard after a post I was thinking, "yeah, but that means I'm an azzhole" - oy vei. You know what is the really elusive number? 30" I have been through 3 in my life, 1978, 1992, and 1997. I have experience well over 10 20s though. Something about that - I mean, why isn't it 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Congrats Sam! Thanks! Not to be the guy sitting cross legged around the snow drift singing kum bah ya, but I gotta say this is really awesome how this storm overperformed in a big way for the entire subforum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Ok, who's staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I have had 2 30+ storms in my memory (Feb and Mar 2001 ) and 2 additional 20+ storms (Jan 2003 and Dec 2003) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Why is no one talking about New Fairfield and New Haven? 29/29.5" FOURTY Inches in 5 days, and 55" + for the season.....!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Ok, who's staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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