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NYC Jan. 12 Regional Obs Thread


Sickman

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Agreed John, I honestly wouldn't care if winter ended right now. We've had so many big nor'easters over the past 13 months it's become almost like a garden variety T-storm! 5 12"+ snows, 2 of them 20"+.

I've had 106.5" of snow, last winter and this winter combined thus far. Since 2000, I've recorded approximately 375" of snow, simply remarkable.

What's scary about this for me is that I am probably very snow spoiled right now, and I will just refuse to live through a stretch of winters where I don't see these types of snows. I can't believe that in the 80's these types of snow storms rarely happened and the norm was pretty snowless. I'd really like to understand your reasonings as to why you believe the next few decades will remain snowy and not oscillate back to an 80's type decade.

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Newark's doing very well this winter. Just behind them at 34.5".

Although we've seen a lot of big snows - the La Nina staple still exists in the pattern as we see a clear decreasing trend in totals further SW. Wash DC has not seen much snow at all this winter, with PHL about in the middle, and BOS/NYC pretty much neck and neck.

Sort of, but the snowfall increases again as you get into SE VA and NC, towards the Deep South....Norfolk (ORF) had 14.2" in the Boxing Day Blizzard and has seen around 20" seasonal snowfall, parts of Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia saw 10" with the past storm, and NC did well on the clipper in mid-December. There's just a weird hole around the DC/BWI area with most of the I-95 corridor from Atlanta to Boston having enjoyed well above average snowfall this season.

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The good news is I believe the type of winters we've seen since 2000 will become more common place as we head through the next couple decades, due a myriad of global factors (and solar).

Yes, 100% agree....the NAO has been very negative in previous solar minima like the Dalton and Maunder, and we seem to be entering that phase again. Every time our region has enjoyed a stretch of -NAO winters, such as from 1958-1969, we've enjoyed much above average snowfall. We're seeing how tenacious the blocking is in that it has survived against the cold stratosphere induced by a +QBO and strong La Niña.

We're also going to benefit from some decreases in global temperatures with a strong, potentially multi-year La Niña and the solar minimum...this should be favorable along with the fact that the -PDO tends to introduce some more arctic airmasses to North America, anyway.

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As of 1:00 PM they had a fairly pedestrian 13.5"...would give them 36.8" on season.

Seems odd to me. Upton recorded 6" more than me from ther 12/26 storm, and i have 7" more than Upton from this one. We are usually very close in totals. Guess it evens out on paper, but odd.

Really impressed with the piles around my property tonight. Some are over 8'. I remember as a kid thinking I could make the piles big enough to last all year. They rarely last into March, but we're off to a good start this year.

Nothing like a clear and cold night with fresh,deep, crystal clean powder.

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The GFS was terribly inaccurate. It may "seem" that its QPF fields were good, but that was only for some people in our area. How about parts of Suffolk, and all of SNE, who all did MUCH better than the GFS ever forecasted?

The further west track helped to really hit CT hard.

I still don't see how the qpf fields were that good. It barely had .5 inches back to NYC until like the very last run when it had already started snowing. Did it have anyone on Long Island receiving over an inch of precipitation? And how about New England? That was a pathetic display up there too.

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I still don't see how the qpf fields were that good. It barely had .5 inches back to NYC until like the very last run when it had already started snowing. Did it have anyone on Long Island receiving over an inch of precipitation? And how about New England? That was a pathetic display up there too.

Yeah, its QPF fields were actually pretty bad for Jersey. It was by far the worst model. It just seemed a lot better than it was, since no one west of Levittown got over a foot in our area, but it was still way underdone, and Suffolk greatly exceeded the GFS outputs. SNE more than doubled them.

Even the Euro was pretty bad, too...it was waffling all over the place. Not nearly as bad as the GFS was, though.

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Just looked at the latest PNS and saw 20" for Port Jefferson. I sent in a total of 18" early this morning, but the 20" total was submitted by someone other than myself. And to think I was afraid I might have overmeasured.

I was just going to ask if you or Viking had submitted your totals! I see quite a few 18-20 inch totals coming from Port Jeff, Selden, Coram, etc..... so Im hoping everyone submitted their totals.

If someone hasnt and wants to here is the link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/report.php

and here is the latest snowfall report:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

I see JM and Doug havent submitted their totals yet!

Looking through the report, wow there is a big increase in Queens, going from West to East-- LGA around 7, Fresh Meadows and Bayside around a foot!

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fwiw.

KACK 121653Z 25037G51KT 2SM -SN BKN012 BKN017 OVC043 M01/M03 A2922 RMK AO2 PK WND 27057/1618 UPB04E10SNE04B10 SLP895 P0000 T10061033

KACK 121649Z 25040G51KT 2 1/2SM -SN SCT012 BKN017 OVC043 M01/M03 A2922 RMK AO2 PK WND 27057/1618 UPB04E10SNE04B10 P0000

KACK 121553Z 25038G53KT 5SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 00/M02 A2918 RMK AO2 PK WND 25055/1532 UPB40E51SNB51 SLP882 P0000 T00001022

KACK 121453Z 22038G52KT 4SM BR OVC012 02/M01 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 21053/1428 SLP873 T00171006 58041

The winds were really impressive out at CC and the islands.

METAR KPVC 121135Z 07037G69KT 3SM BKN005 OVC120 01/M01 A2937 RMK AO1 P0009

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I was just going to ask if you or Viking had submitted your totals! I see quite a few 18-20 inch totals coming from Port Jeff, Selden, Coram, etc..... so Im hoping everyone submitted their totals.

If someone hasnt and wants to here is the link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/report.php

and here is the latest snowfall report:

http://forecast.weat...OKX&product=PNS

I see JM and Doug havent submitted their totals yet!

Looking through the report, wow there is a big increase in Queens, going from West to East-- LGA around 7, Fresh Meadows and Bayside around a foot!

i dont know about that 12 inch number in fresh meadows...floral park to its east at 9.7, new hyde park 10.8...nowhere within 20 miles had a foot...

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One thing i noticed with both the 12/26 storm as well as this past one is that the snow seems to be melting awfully fast on paved surfaces, even with air temps below freezing. I can understand the roads because the municipalitys salt the heck out of them and perpetate the roadwork cycle, but even walkways and untreated pavement seem to have melting from underneath around here. I usually think of late dec/early jan as the time period of the year that this doesnt happen around here, especially with the cold air temps.

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One thing i noticed with both the 12/26 storm as well as this past one is that the snow seems to be melting awfully fast on paved surfaces, even with air temps below freezing. I can understand the roads because the municipalitys salt the heck out of them and perpetate the roadwork cycle, but even walkways and untreated pavement seem to have melting from underneath around here. I usually think of late dec/early jan as the time period of the year that this doesnt happen around here, especially with the cold air temps.

Its been consistently cold, but none of it much below seasonable. We haven't had any real cold air despite some who insist on trumpeting how cold its been. I've seen the ground warmer, but its not like its frozen 3 feet down. For what its worth, it seems to me that the ground temperatures got a lot colder betweeen the December storm and this weeks. I had a foot in December, but not more than 6 inches on the driveway...this despite the fact that the wind was constantly repleneshing snow that melted down from below. For this storm, I had the same accumulation on the driveway that I had on the unpaved surfaces (16"). I should note that my driveway is pitched slightly to the southwest and gets a lot of sun...so it usually has enough stored heat to knock down snow accumulations...but that wasn't the case this time.

By the way, blacktop and sunshine is always a good way to melt snow if the temp is much above 0F.

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Its been consistently cold, but none of it much below seasonable. We haven't had any real cold air despite some who insist on trumpting how cold its been. I've seen the ground warmer, but its not like its frozen 3 feet down. For what its worth, it seems to me that the ground temperatures got a lot colder betweeen the December storm and this weeks. I had a foot in December, but not more than 6 inches on the driveway...this despite the fact that the wind was constantly repleneshing snow that melted down from below. For this storm, I had the same accumulation on the driveway that I had on the unpaved surfaces (16"). I should note that my driveway is pitched slightly to the southwest and gets a lot of sun...so it usually has enough stored heat to knock down snow accumulations...but that wasn't the case this time.

By the way, blacktop and sunshine is always a good way to melt snow if the temp is much above 0F.

i agree with you that the cold has been overstated for our area, much like last year. It has been somewhat consistent, but not anywhere near extreme. Upper 20's felt pretty comfortable today.

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