Mikehobbyst Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 All comments welcome on your current thoughts. Do we repeat 2010 rapid jump to spring in March again ?? Do we repeat the 2010 pattern again ??? Awesome winter to another torch relay spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 All comments welcome on your current thoughts. Do we repeat 2010 rapid jump to spring in March again ?? Do we repeat the 2010 pattern again ??? Awesome winter to another torch relay spring and summer. No way dude...second year La Niña summers are frequently cool and wet like 2008 and 1974. Throw in the -AO pattern and you're probably looking at a below average summer. Also, it will take a while for this area to warm in spring as the extremely cold winter is going to do a number on Atlantic SSTs, which will promote tons of raw E/NE winds in April and early May. I'm also expecting the snowpack and frozen ground to hold on for an unusually long time, which could make March colder than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 No way dude...second year La Niña summers are frequently cool and wet like 2008 and 1974. Throw in the -AO pattern and you're probably looking at a below average summer. Also, it will take a while for this area to warm in spring as the extremely cold winter is going to do a number on Atlantic SSTs, which will promote tons of raw E/NE winds in April and early May. I'm also expecting the snowpack and frozen ground to hold on for an unusually long time, which could make March colder than expected. i'll take summer 2008 - that summer was not too bad. summer 2009 (up until mid july) was too cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I am fine with a Spring/Summer of 2008. Had plenty of hail during that spring and a good bit of thunderstorms that summer also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I could go for a cool summer. My AC still hasn't recovered from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I could go for a cool summer. My AC still hasn't recovered from last year. Same here. Last summer was brutal. My highest temperature was 103 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Personally I'd like to see you guys get a repeat of 2009. My redwood would appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I wish there was a way that we can skip Summer and go right into Fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'll take 2010 with a side of 66 and 2002 for desert. On a serious note some of the preliminary analogs point to 89, 2000, 51 or 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/climate-reports/7405-could-2011-be-the-year-without-summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 No way dude...second year La Niña summers are frequently cool and wet like 2008 and 1974. Throw in the -AO pattern and you're probably looking at a below average summer. Also, it will take a while for this area to warm in spring as the extremely cold winter is going to do a number on Atlantic SSTs, which will promote tons of raw E/NE winds in April and early May. I'm also expecting the snowpack and frozen ground to hold on for an unusually long time, which could make March colder than expected. I'll take 2010 with a side of 66 and 2002 for desert. On a serious note some of the preliminary analogs point to 89, 2000, 51 or 74. My "wish cast" but to some extent forecaste is that we come close to repeating last summer. Remember 1952, 1953 and 1954 all featured 100+ readings, and whil e1955 didn't it was a scorcher, a lot like 1999. Now that we're in solidly in the PDO cold phase, just as we were during the early 1950's I could see the La Niña weakening a bit aroiund now, and then re-locking and re-loading for next summer. Also remember that 1999 was a second La Niña summer, also during a restrengthening. I agree with NZucker about the spring though. The impact of the ONI rising from about -1.5 to around -0.7 or -0.8 before sinking again could make March through May our "Summer of 2000" or "Summer of 2009" moment. As far as -NAO I just can't see that not weakening, at least for a time. . Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Can't really say anything. After last year's hot summer, who would have thought we would have a repeat of last winter? This time it's centered around NYC instead of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I know it's unlikely to be as bad as last summer. Last summer had the most 90 degree days in Philly ever. I think the weakening Nina makes us cooler, but we don't go way below average either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 torch me again in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 torch me again in 2011 last Spring was great...Early 90's in April...100 degree heat in July...Warmest Spring and Summer ever around NYC...A repeat?...It is possible...I'd like to see temps hit the 90's in April again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 last Spring was great...Early 90's in April...100 degree heat in July...Warmest Spring and Summer ever around NYC...A repeat?...It is possible...I'd like to see temps hit the 90's in April again..... Not me. Cool summers FTW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not me. Cool summers FTW.. Same here man. I hate the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 last Spring was great...Early 90's in April...100 degree heat in July...Warmest Spring and Summer ever around NYC...A repeat?...It is possible...I'd like to see temps hit the 90's in April again..... Not me. Cool summers FTW.. Cool springs by me are fine; cool summers are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Now that we're in solidly in the PDO cold phase, just as we were during the early 1950's I could see the La Niña weakening a bit aroiund now, and then re-locking and re-loading for next summer. Also remember that 1999 was a second La Niña summer, also during a restrengthening. I know it's unlikely to be as bad as last summer. Last summer had the most 90 degree days in Philly ever. I think the weakening Nina makes us cooler, but we don't go way below average either. Any thoughtsabout my "back to the 1950's" theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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