Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco -II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

No...the NAM had issues too. But as for overdoing QPF...it's a known bias. But definitely nailed the idea that all of CT was gonna get plastered...not just the eastern third. I hope I'm not seen as criticizing your call...you had your reasons and no one ever gets these things perfect. I never expected W CT to break 12" even though I had a little more faith in the NAM.

I'm surprised only by western hills being so heavy. But I think 8-16 with the 10-20 outline was a safe bet. I waivered because of the stupid euro not the gfs. And for the record I did say I'd pin the max qpf right where the nam had it last night. I do have the right to change a thought...I don't stick to the wrong idea because I'm hoping it works. I thought last night when I talked with the tagger here about the gfs targeting ct it was kind of clear that's where the max would be. I will admit I thought more towards ginx and keV though.

Like you said the nam had issues too and the minute people make the same assumptions I did about it based on how well you think it did this time - that can cloud judgement next time.

I think it was pretty awful on temp profiles down here in the end, so to say it nailed it is very imby. If there was one model that seemed to do the best it was the nmm, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM nailed that stalled band out in the Berks. It had that for about 36 hrs. That's the band with a probably trowal feature too, that I mentioned yesterday..coming from nne.

Scott, I can attest to the fact that you pointed this out several times in several ways. Last measurement was 17.5" but likely over 18" now. That band is now directly over me and it's cranking. Just to the West 20+" and Box has just upped totals to 19-24" here. We'll get there easily it would seem. I must commend you on your keen eyes picking up on this feature. I really think NAM did an excellent job out here, Messenger's comments notwithstanding. Awesome light powder here, now I'm really of to the mountain. Ba bye>!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone saying Tip nailed this? He did a fantastic job with it from 3-4 days in...but he initially said this was OTS and a miss

Because of what you just said? LOL around the trough talk time he warned the NAM may be right and it/he was. As far as I know no one else said such a thing with the huge totals nearly that far back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ryan great job on the West band, congrats, do you remember me telling you back in Dec you would exceed your annual forecast by the first week of Jan? sorry I busted by 5 days LOL

seasonal forecast... epic fail.

For the most part I'm happy with how this forecast worked out. I always thought NW CT was in the game and they are piling up like crazy now.

My mom says about 20"or so in Guilford. Will be their biggest storm since 1996

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone saying Tip nailed this? He did a fantastic job with it from 3-4 days in...but he initially said this was OTS and a miss

Repeatedly said ride the NAM. Look at the band just sittin' banked up against the east side of the Crest. It's rippin' baby... oh yeah!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

seasonal forecast... epic fail.

For the most part I'm happy with how this forecast worked out. I always thought NW CT was in the game and they are piling up like crazy now.

My mom says about 20"or so in Guilford. Will be their biggest storm since 1996

But Ryan's December snowfall as a portent of what's to come was a win! Though at the time we thought it was screaming we're screwed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well climo here is certainly not 22.5 inches for these things..though this is a first here for me

:lol:

No I meant like a uniform stripe of heavy snowfall. It's probably already busting low in western MA

And congrats by the way! Good call on the magnitude of the storm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

seasonal forecast... epic fail.

For the most part I'm happy with how this forecast worked out. I always thought NW CT was in the game and they are piling up like crazy now.

My mom says about 20"or so in Guilford. Will be their biggest storm since 1996

yes it is our largest one since 96 here and about time!!! closing in on 18 in Branford.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...