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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco -II


Baroclinic Zone

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The problem is/was ...and this goes for a lot of Mets as well, they are on autopilot with their assumptions about the models when the reality is, one needs to pick and choose what situations what tool is going to be better for. You don't send a plumber to a seamstress convention -

4 days ago I hammered out all the reasons why the NAM would be superior for this type of meso-beta scaled scenario, leveraging in not just model type but in situ environmental conditions too. Then, ensuing days and threads went by - I didn't sense that folks either understood what I was talking about, or ignored perhaps. I don't know. But no one has any excuse as far as I am concerned because it was written on the wall back then and is verifying rather nicely.

I do, however, think that while the NAM will have embarrassed the GFS's SE low track (up until the last minute, too) the QPF on the NAM may bust a little high. That is okay, because the other parameters are nailed so tightly. We'll have to see how that goes in the end.

Ayer, snow now up to the top of the tire wells of my car. Bluish tint to the air in snow mist and snow. 1/3 mil vis. 27F. S/S+

LOL, who ignored you?

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Wish I had a wx station, but here are my obs from Woonsocket:

Everything plastered, the row of pines in my backyard look like a cathedral, blasting gusts in the last few minutes, sky still dumping snow, and I'll guess around a foot on the ground so far. And the radar is still being good to me.

Heavy, heavy happiness here in N. RI.

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Hoping to break 18" here...but not sure we can make it like the snow hounds in SW CT.

Got 13.7" now...but the bands are becoming a bit more erratic...but we still have a few hours to go to see what this final CCB might do...maybe this final fireworks show I predicted will never happen either.

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