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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco -II


Baroclinic Zone

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Ahh, back in the 2+ inch an hour snowfall rates. Looks like that band in western CT is starting to expand some. Interesting night ahead.

It's expanding, but it's not totally ejecting... more like spreading east... still think we can pick up another 2-4 easy. Some of the hills up through the Berks will have 24"

Maybe HPC knew something we didn't when they had that convergence of the 70, 40, 10 chance along the CT/NY border!

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I cant believe this band right now! have not seen my neighbors house in over and hour! Route 7 will have some really high totals when this thing is over

It really is, and just stalled over norwalk, westport fairfield and into milford and up the rte 7 corridor expanding into the rte 8 corridor, 35-40 dbz just sitting there.

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BOX:

HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 4 AM.

REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3

INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING WITHIN A HEAVY BAND

THAT IS STRETCHED ALONG A WHITE PLAINS NY TO ORANGE MA LINE.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WIDESPREAD AND EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY

SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE

CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO

UPPER 30S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN FALLING ON THE ISLANDS AND

LIGHT SNOW ON CAPE COD. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE

THE BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SCITUATE SOUTHWARD TO A WINTER STORM

WARNING. ***IMPORTANT*** THE BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

FROM SCITUATE NORTHWARD INCLUDING BOSTON.

MSAS MSLP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE

COASTAL LOW JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH PRESSURE FALLS UP TO 3

TO 4 MB/HR. WITH THIS INTENSIFICATION...THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT ON

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRESSURE FALLS INDICATED ON THE RADAR

IMAGERY MOVING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE LOW. ALL

OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WEST AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL

RUNS. THE RUC/NAM IS THE WESTERNMOST PATH WITH THE LOW JUST EAST OF

BLOCK ISLAND AND THEN TURNING EAST OVER CAPE COD. JUDGING FROM THE

PRESSURE FALLS AND THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW THIS ACTUALLY

LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACCURATE. THE GFS REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST

SOLUTION MOVING THE LOW NORTH BETWEEN MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

BUT AS STATED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION TO BE THE

RUC/NAM SOLUTION.

THIS TRACK FAVORS MORE OF A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE CAPE AND

ISLANDS POSSIBLY EXTENDING UP ONTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND

EAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LARGELY

UNCHANGED ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE ISLANDS AND THE OUTER CAPE

WHERE AMOUNTS WERE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OR LESS. AMOUNTS ON

EITHER SIDE OF CAPE COD CANAL WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH

RANGE.THIS HAS REDUCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WHICH HAS

RESULTED IN SEVERAL CHANGES IN OUR WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. PLEASE

REFER TO THE WINTER STORM PRODUCT /WSWBOX/ ON OUR WEBSITE FOR

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THESE CHANGES.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR CAPE COD AND MARTHAS

VINEYARD. NOTHING IN THE WIND ARENA HAS CHANGED FOR THESE LOCATIONS

BUT SINCE THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS WERE DROPPED...NEEDED TO REPLACE

THAT WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE

FALLS...SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY

THROUGHOUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

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