2010 Global Temps

[LakeEffectKing]

So GISS was a HUGE outlier for October. Here's HADCRUT for Oct:

2010/01 0.498

2010/02 0.491

2010/03 0.587

2010/04 0.579

2010/05 0.511

2010/06 0.533

2010/07 0.534

2010/08 0.475

2010/09 0.389

2010/10 0.392

[nzucker]

AMSU UAH Channel 5 is plummeting lately...as of 11/16, the global temperature anomaly was +.133C and the monthly anomaly was .298C, but we've cooled a ton since then so I'd guess that according to Channel 5, we're now around .05C above the 1979-2010 average and maybe running an anomaly of .25C for the month. Incredible drop lately on the satellites.

[iceicebyebye]

Hmmm....I saw the title and expected a broad and objective review of YTD temps to kick off the thread. But I see the cold crew has launched this one. Anyway, here's a snapshot of YTD (Oct) anomolies from the major sources:

GISS .65

HAD .5

NOAA .63

RSS .56

UAH .54

Nevermind that from among all sources 2010 has been one of the warmest years in recorded history.

As noted, Nov actual trends are pointing to lower anomolies, which is no surprise given the strong Nina. And certainly the UAH anomoly will be even lower after the usual "ajustments" are made.

[BethesdaWX]

Yitterbium, that you? Where did you get those #'s? UAH was 0.42C at the end of OCT, RSS was even lower.

[tacoman25]

Hmmm....I saw the title and expected a broad and objective review of YTD temps to kick off the thread. But I see the cold crew has launched this one. Anyway, here's a snapshot of YTD (Oct) anomolies from the major sources:

GISS .65

HAD .5

NOAA .63

RSS .56

UAH .54

Nevermind that from among all sources 2010 has been one of the warmest years in recorded history.

As noted, Nov actual trends are pointing to lower anomolies, which is no surprise given the strong Nina. And certainly the UAH anomoly will be even lower after the usual "ajustments" are made.

Then why is RSS almost identical YTD?

[nzucker]

Still tanking in Channel 5...we'll hit the bottom of the pack in a few days if we continue cooling at this rate. Incredible changes from early in the year due to the La Niña. We'll see if we can get a cold anomaly lower than 2008, which had a peak cold anomaly around .2C below the 1979-2000 average on UAH. It will probably happen given that this ENSO event looks more potent, and the solar minimum seems to be having some weird effects on the weather pattern lately.

[LakeEffectKing]

Hmmm....I saw the title and expected a broad and objective review of YTD temps to kick off the thread. But I see the cold crew has launched this one. Anyway, here's a snapshot of YTD (Oct) anomolies from the major sources:

GISS .65

HAD .5

NOAA .63

RSS .56

UAH .54

Nevermind that from among all sources 2010 has been one of the warmest years in recorded history.

As noted, Nov actual trends are pointing to lower anomolies, which is no surprise given the strong Nina. And certainly the UAH anomoly will be even lower after the usual "ajustments" are made.

Explain where there is a loss of objectiveness in my statement opening the thread.....

You can still review all your tripe at Eastern if you so choose.

[BethesdaWX]

Still tanking in Channel 5...we'll hit the bottom of the pack in a few days if we continue cooling at this rate. Incredible changes from early in the year due to the La Niña. We'll see if we can get a cold anomaly lower than 2008, which had a peak cold anomaly around .2C below the 1979-2000 average on UAH. It will probably happen given that this ENSO event looks more potent, and the solar minimum seems to be having some weird effects on the weather pattern lately.

Still wondering on UAH mainstream. But yeah... what a Drop! Also looks like another round of cooling ove the central ENSO regions.

[nzucker]

Still wondering on UAH mainstream. But yeah... what a Drop! Also looks like another round of cooling ove the central ENSO regions.

Yeah there's a new bubble of cold anomalies that's slowly surfacing around 130W as well as some recent cooling in Region 4 due to above average trades there. I don't think that's responsible for the current drop in global temps though it will certainly help later on.

[iceicebyebye]

Yitterbium, that you? Where did you get those #'s? UAH was 0.42C at the end of OCT, RSS was even lower.

Do you understand the difference between a monthly and YTD result? LOL

And no, this is not the drama queen you mentioned from Eastern. I prefer objectivity and facts.

[iceicebyebye]

Explain where there is a loss of objectiveness in my statement opening the thread.....

You can still review all your tripe at Eastern if you so choose.

Just sayin that the opening salvo had the usual cold bias and commentary. Would have been good to ground the situation for the year to this point, rather than just noting the recent cooling trend.

Thanks for the offer, but I'm watching my cholesterol and do not partake of tripe. Give me some credit, I'm a bit more sophisticated than the entity previously known as Y...

[tacoman25]

Wow, huge drop lately. Delayed, but not denied.

[LakeEffectKing]

Just sayin that the opening salvo had the usual cold bias and commentary. Would have been good to ground the situation for the year to this point, rather than just noting the recent cooling trend.

Thanks for the offer, but I'm watching my cholesterol and do not partake of tripe. Give me some credit, I'm a bit more sophisticated than the entity previously known as Y...

Ah, another one falling for the cholesterol/lipid hypothesis.....good luck with that! I'll give credit when it's shown, and respect when respected....your opening post showed neither.

[BethesdaWX]

Do you understand the difference between a monthly and YTD result? LOL

And no, this is not the drama queen you mentioned from Eastern. I prefer objectivity and facts.

Your Username Says it all dude.

Skierinvermont, Friv, or Yitterbium?

Whats your city again?

[BethesdaWX]

Wow, huge drop lately. Delayed, but not denied.

I don't recall a drop like this since 1998. Amazing.

[nzucker]

Your Username Says it all dude.

Skierinvermont, Friv, or Yitterbium?

Whats your city again?

Skierinvermont has the same handle and is a personal friend of mine, was my roommate in college. It's not skier dude. Probably Ytterbium in disguise, although sort of like a bad Halloween costume that doesn't fly.

I don't recall a drop like this since 1998. Amazing.

Yeah it is sweet, dude. I'd love to see what happens if the Niña keeps cooling and we get a peak near record-strong territory. We still have a bunch of cooling to go in the Indian Ocean SSTs, in all probability, as the La Niña matures. This should set up some nice global cooling along with the extremely -PDO and low solar. We also have seen a lot of cooling in the West Pacific recently...there were +5C anomalies south of Kamchatka, near Japan, in September...that's down to around +2C and has just been tanking recently.

[skierinvermont]

Your Username Says it all dude.

Skierinvermont, Friv, or Yitterbium?

Whats your city again?

what up

still pumping iron?

[skierinvermont]

Just sayin that the opening salvo had the usual cold bias and commentary. Would have been good to ground the situation for the year to this point, rather than just noting the recent cooling trend.

Thanks for the offer, but I'm watching my cholesterol and do not partake of tripe. Give me some credit, I'm a bit more sophisticated than the entity previously known as Y...

what was your old tag then?

[iceicebyebye]

Your Username Says it all dude.

Skierinvermont, Friv, or Yitterbium?

Whats your city again?

LOL BethesdaBoy, there are more than 3 individuals open to the facts and science of climate change...How's it going with understanding the difference between a monthly and YTD statistic?...any progress?

[iceicebyebye]

Skierinvermont has the same handle and is a personal friend of mine, was my roommate in college. It's not skier dude. Probably Ytterbium in disguise, although sort of like a bad Halloween costume that doesn't fly.

Yeah it is sweet, dude. I'd love to see what happens if the Niña keeps cooling and we get a peak near record-strong territory. We still have a bunch of cooling to go in the Indian Ocean SSTs, in all probability, as the La Niña matures. This should set up some nice global cooling along with the extremely -PDO and low solar. We also have seen a lot of cooling in the West Pacific recently...there were +5C anomalies south of Kamchatka, near Japan, in September...that's down to around +2C and has just been tanking recently.

Agreed that the current oscillations are in favor of short term cooler temperatures/smaller positive anomalies....but this will not change the long term trends related to warming global temperatures.

[BethesdaWX]

what was your old tag then?

I doubt he will answer. And, no pumping iron for me until Spring

[BethesdaWX]

Skierinvermont has the same handle and is a personal friend of mine, was my roommate in college. It's not skier dude. Probably Ytterbium in disguise, although sort of like a bad Halloween costume that doesn't fly.

Yeah it is sweet, dude. I'd love to see what happens if the Niña keeps cooling and we get a peak near record-strong territory. We still have a bunch of cooling to go in the Indian Ocean SSTs, in all probability, as the La Niña matures. This should set up some nice global cooling along with the extremely -PDO and low solar. We also have seen a lot of cooling in the West Pacific recently...there were +5C anomalies south of Kamchatka, near Japan, in September...that's down to around +2C and has just been tanking recently.

I can't wait to see what we look like in 4-5 months. We may end up -0.2C or more below avg for a time. Given this is most likely a multi-year event, it could be awhile before we climb above avg again.

[Tropopause_Fold]

what was your old tag then?

I think it's Mike Doran.

[LakeEffectKing]

Agreed that the current oscillations are in favor of short term cooler temperatures/smaller positive anomalies....but this will not change the long term trends related to warming global temperatures.

You need to define long term better. People are catching on to the "move the goalposts"/ "in the pipeline"/"tipping point (since 1992)" BS. If we have a "few" years of cooling, or even 5-10 years of cooling, we'll have essentially gone 15-18 years with NO warming, depending on the degree of your "agreed to" upcoming cooling/unchanging temps. Wasn't "long term" supposed to be on decadal timescales??? What will it be then...."on half-century timescales"??? And how is the "experts" predictions of an ice free arctic with in the next 5-10 years going to work with some short term global cooling???

Not to mention, Mr. "objective scientist, but ok to be activist" Hansen, would have some "splaining" to do:

[LakeEffectKing]

I think it's Mike Doran.

[BethesdaWX]

You need to define long term better. People are catching on to the "move the goalposts"/ "in the pipeline"/"tipping point (since 1992)" BS. If we have a "few" years of cooling, or even 5-10 years of cooling, we'll have essentially gone 15-18 years with NO warming, depending on the degree of your "agreed to" upcoming cooling/unchanging temps. Wasn't "long term" supposed to be on decadal timescales??? What will it be then...."on half-century timescales"??? And how is the "experts" predictions of an ice free arctic with in the next 5-10 years going to work with some short term global cooling???

Not to mention, Mr. "objective scientist, but ok to be activist" Hansen, would have some "splaining" to do:

Agreed, not sure what he's talking about.

Satellite OBS is a fantastic tool, IMHO its preferable to extrapolations. No warming since the late 90's. Cooling from 2002-2008. Where is the "unprecedented" warming?

[LakeEffectKing]

Agreed, not sure what he's talking about.

Satellite OBS is a fantastic tool, IMHO its preferable to extrapolations. No warming since the late 90's. Cooling from 2002-2008. Where is the "unprecedented" warming?

"It's a travesty we can't explain the cooling."

[BethesdaWX]

"It's a travesty we can't explain the cooling."

[iceicebyebye]

You need to define long term better. People are catching on to the "move the goalposts"/ "in the pipeline"/"tipping point (since 1992)" BS. If we have a "few" years of cooling, or even 5-10 years of cooling, we'll have essentially gone 15-18 years with NO warming, depending on the degree of your "agreed to" upcoming cooling/unchanging temps. Wasn't "long term" supposed to be on decadal timescales??? What will it be then...."on half-century timescales"??? And how is the "experts" predictions of an ice free arctic with in the next 5-10 years going to work with some short term global cooling???

Not to mention, Mr. "objective scientist, but ok to be activist" Hansen, would have some "splaining" to do:

I think a good past to current point of reference for "long term" is 1750, the figure typically leveraged for net assessments of emissions and radiative forcing variables relevant to global energy balance and temps. Looking ahead, "end of this century" or 2100 and beyond is a good yardstick for long term impacts. Point is that a few years of cooling does not eliminate the long term trends. And unfortunately most of us can't think too much about 2100, given our personal time horizons are limited by human life span limitations. "Goalposts" are also relevant to either individual or societal frames of reference. Regarding "tipping points", those are likely irrelevant, given that it's a matter of when and not if relative to the impacts of climate change. The BAU emissions path will likely not change anytime soon, and this ensures that we will experience the consequences of climate change....not sure anyone can say with certainty whether that will be 5, 15, 50 or 100 years down the road.

Regarding Artic ice, I'm not familiar with the "experts" you reference regarding declaration of an ice free state within the next few years. The IPCC has a reasonable position on this topic, suggesting that "in some projections, Artic late-summer sea ice dissapears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century" (emphasis added). I would agree that anyone saying all the ice is gone, completely, in the next few years is off-base. But the long term trend is less Artic ice, and that's a fact.

Regarding Hansen, he has acknowledged that the current Nina oscillation will result in short-term cooling trends, but has also suggested that we will then return to annual record temperature levels. Otherwise the graph you posted runs through near the end of this decade, so good to allow the predictive time frame to run its course before passing full judgement. IDK, maybe a case of "delayed but not denied", like taco's struggles with current year temp predictions.

The cooling crowd has made many comments akin to "we'll know in 20-30 years as the PDO exerts its influence". The bulk of the data and observations suggests otherwise, and I cast my lot with the mainstream scientific opinions on this topic.

[The_Global_Warmer]

That map shows continued warming why does it matter what some guy named Hansen thinks....the facts on the map show warming...