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NYC Jan 11-12 Regional Obs Thread


jm1220

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quincy jon from western.. what do you think of the ruc stalling the low around boston for several hours tomorrow.. and having accumulating snow through western ct until at least 4 or 5 pm??? thats would be 18 hours of moderate/heavy snow... easily bringing totals over 2 feet.. also have you seen the radar off central nj???

I do think steady snow lasts into midday/early afternoon, but beyond that, 4 or 5 might be a stretch. impressive radar echoes off central NJ, although some of it may be bright-banding.

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I'm normally not a big nowcaster, since I've seen seemingly promising radars turn ugly and ugly radars turn into white gold (2/2006 being the classic example of the latter), but---if this is going to miss NYC to the east, I'm an ostrich.

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...MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING FROM ERN NJ TO

PARTS OF SRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK.

SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL

UNDERGO VERY STRONG INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THIS

FEATURE TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD. THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW

SHOULD BE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY

MORNING PERIOD...AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /UP TO 200-240 METERS PER 12

HR AT 500 MB/ SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING

TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIDLEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING

LAPSE RATES ATOP REGIME OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FROM NJ TO SRN NEW

ENGLAND RESULTING IN MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT

TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. THUS...EMBEDDED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE EXPECTED BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS VERY INTENSE

STORM SYSTEM.

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Guest Patrick

The pivot of the bands slightly NWward has just begun if you look at the last few frames over far eastern NJ.... the backside should begin to noticeably pivot within the next 45 minutes...

wonder if the back edge of the radar will start to pivot around?

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