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NYC Jan 11-12 Regional Obs Thread


jm1220

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just for the hell of it upton increased my totals...

Overnight: Snow. Low around 23. Northwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow showers, mainly before 2pm. High near 31. Northwest wind between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

I don't know why. You can see on radar the back edge is getting close to NYC. Moving too fast for those totals.

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Just measured 9.5", 3.5 in last hour.

I'm under 35-40 Dbz... and it's just spinning over me, collecting its thoughts.

Life doesn't get much better than this. I usually get to bed at midnight but I don't feel tired in the least.

Heading back out.

Just my luck the band is strenghtening after it passed me. Looks like Danbury is getting buried right now!

post-3689-0-20956700-1294822683.gif

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Most beautiful dendrites I've seen in a while.

Looks like a pillow fight out there.

Who's winning? :P

That deform band strengthened right over us-- and I mean RIGHT over us-- if it was like 10 min later, it would have missed us to the east lol.

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The latest ob from Montauk is 996.4 hpa and it is still falling at nearly 3 hpa/hr.

KMTP 120854Z AUTO 03015G22KT 02/01 A2943 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP964 P0025 60060 T00220011 56104 PWINO FZRANO TSNO

Hey Jason, does it look to be coming ashore on Montauk or Block Island still?

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I think we can officially say now that the GFS horribly busted with this storm, seriously, with every model run. And thank G-d for that!

Love seeing the updated increased snowfall totals by Upton

Some of the models that predicted super high amounts are busting too, though. The reality ended up being in between GFS and the models that showed the most. As usual, a compromise was best.

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Hey Jason, does it look to be coming ashore on Montauk or Block Island still?

Tough to say. Lack of obs obviously hurts. Montauk still falling at 3 hpa/hr though, and an offshore buoy is down to 994.5 an hour ago, way lower than the models. I think SUNY MM5 is prolly about right on placement of the low at 09Z, but subtract 3-5 hpa from the surface low. According to this, Montauk should be at 1002 hpa, not 996.4

post-999-0-14669700-1294823509.gif

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Some of the models that predicted super high amounts are busting too, though. The reality ended up being in between GFS and the models that showed the most. As usual, a compromise was best.

I wonder if this new forecast will verify-- 11 inches for NYC, 13 inches for JFK and up to 20 inches in Suffolk County.

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13 at JFK may have a hard time based on those reports from them...

lol I dont know whats up with them-- as you can see by the radar, we've been under some amazing returns for hours now (2-3 inches per hr!)..... unless somehow those bands somehow missed them (or strengthened as they came east) and clocked us here, although we're like 5 miles from them.

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