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NYC Jan 11-12 Regional Obs Thread


jm1220

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Light snow and a coating on all surfaces here on n. shore of eastern long island...all of a sudden feeling not so certain about being in the jackpot zone for this one..

Right about now seems like the most uncertainty about where the jackpot zone will be. The bright side is, most of us are still in the game...it may not be "decided" yet. At the moment, Uptons stock seems pretty high. Man have they been on a roll. Thats only 17 miles from here...been driving me a little nuts. The east west bands (35 - 45 DBZ) moving over Suffolk from the ocean are going to pound central Suffolk with 2 - 3" per hour rates in awesome waves of snow, but the stuff down the Jersey shore may set up and train a little farther west...maybe become the main def band. Basically, the radar looks awesome for most of LI. I'm not sure how much bright banding is down the Jersey shore, but there are reports of rain on the coast and presumably the precip over the ocean is heavy rain, which should translate to the crazy snow rates depicted earlier by the high res models. The temp will rise and we are going to flirt with freezing for a while, but hopefully any mix or rain will stay east of FOK and mostly along the south shore. It does seem that they are going to have some mix out that way for a while.

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Lee Goldberg on WABC Channel 7 just said about 8 does it for NYC. This sound right? Also calls for only 6-9 in most of nassau county. Anyone want to chime in?

He did not say that. He said 9-12 from Brooklyn and Queens east and 12-18 Suffolk east.

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By the way, I don't want to hear the GFS was "the winner" with this storm..it jumped northwest about 75 miles since it's 12z run.

Obviously will have to be discussed as to where the models actually ended up comprimising. Seems to me that since last night, the RGEM did the least amount of shifting in terms of QPF. The NAM and GFS comprimised (in terms of QPF) with a lean towards the GFS. But of course, this will be discussed afterwards. Time to enjoy the spoils. More moderate snow now here since a slight break in precipitation across Somerset county on the radar. Looks to come back with full force in 10-15 minutes with some heavier bands approaching from Burlington county.

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It was great with the 12/26 storm, had the band over my house and rotting there from 18 hours out.

Well then, my secondary max may just verify in W. Ct. after all!

0.7" out there - snow growth has been lackluster thusfar, however... pixie dust for the most part, mixed with some dendrites. Expect that to change in next few hours as storm deepens.

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Yes you are correct. Meant 6-9 for city on west and 9-12 for most of nassau. But do you agree or you think those are too low?

I like 9-12 for my area sounds good to me. I think Nassau will probably be closer to the 12. Anything beyond that is hard to predict with any real accuracy especially because there is still some disagreement on the placement of the heaviest snows.

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Right about now seems like the most uncertainty about where the jackpot zone will be. The bright side is, most of us are still in the game...it may not be "decided" yet. At the moment, Uptons stock seems pretty high. Man have they been on a roll. Thats only 17 miles from here...been driving me a little nuts. The east west bands (35 - 45 DBZ) moving over Suffolk from the ocean are going to pound central Suffolk with 2 - 3" per hour rates in awesome waves of snow, but the stuff down the Jersey shore may set up and train a little farther west...maybe become the main def band. Basically, the radar looks awesome for most of LI. I'm not sure how much bright banding is down the Jersey shore, but there are reports of rain on the coast and presumably the precip over the ocean is heavy rain, which should translate to the crazy snow rates depicted earlier by the high res models. The temp will rise and we are going to flirt with freezing for a while, but hopefully any mix or rain will stay east of FOK and mostly along the south shore. It does seem that they are going to have some mix out that way for a while.

Im worried about the temps as well, you should be in better shape than me in that respect. Hopefully all of us outside of the south fork can hold on to all snow. The next couple of hours will be fun to watch unfold. We're at 1.5" here now,now has been mostly moderate.

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Sounds like the lower end of the snowfall predictions is the way to go...this thing is moving out much faster than origionally thought

The pivoting hasn't really started yet, and it was always supposed to be mainly a 7-9 hour bomb. It should slow down as the low deepens off NJ.

BTW, it's snowing at about GOOD LORD intensity outside my window currently.

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