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PHL Jan 11-12 Regional Obs Thread


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120100Z - 120600Z SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN PA AND NJ THROUGH SERN NY AND SRN CT. RATES LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERTAKE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST AS IT LIFTS NWD OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE SNOW EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM ERN PA INTO NJ. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED AS BANDS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE. A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY AOA -5C WILL EXIST BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH COULD SERVE TO FURTHER AUGMENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH THROUGH AGGREGATION. RATES WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ..DIAL.. 01/12/2011 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40927241 40527370 39307458 39727540 41147512 41717379

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Yeah ... it only lasted for about 10-15 minutes, then went back to snow and has been coming down at a moderate clip ever since.

I drove from Deptford, NJ to Wilmington, De to West Chester, Pa. It was a rain/snow/sleet mix in NJ and Delaware. All snow in PA. I have about an inch so far. I couldn't get my car up the driveway, its really icey under the snow cover.

Where is the costal? I see no echos south of Delmarva.

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You guys are aware eastern PA is in that discussion correct?

Oh I know it, but here in W allentown and our friend in Tamaqua, especially Tamaqua, we are at least 25 miles west of the outer edge of the mesoscale cloud graphic, somehow the air needs to reverse course, or this storm needs to give us a good ole hurricane wobble to really get us closer. We are not sad, snow is great and we like it, just seems out of our grasp the really good stuff this year AND last year.

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Warrington, PA 8:15 PM, 1/11/11. Currently light snow, 28 degrees, dewpoint 21.4. Light E wind.

Approximately 1/2" on the ground now.

About 5 PM - a short period of graupel. Another period of graupel around 6 PM, with "real snow", large flakes, beginning in earnest at about 6:30 PM.

Flakes have decreased in size over the last 15 mins.

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