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PHL Jan 11-12 Regional Obs Thread


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The coastal is stronger than predicted

So we got one person saying the ohio low is stronger, one saying the coastal is stronger....Hmmmm I wonder whats gonna happen? News is still goin with 4-8" in phl metro so they are usually conservative, I may actually ride it out with them this time around cause all this back and forth is making me nautious!

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lol true, but which model do you think is closest?

Well if you go by where precip is actually developing instead of exactly where the surface low appears to be, the model that's furthest east appears to be doing best. Note that there is NO precip developing over eastern Virginia and southern Maryland... a definite difference from what most models showed previously.

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No, I apologize...down this way we call "off shore" to be inland from the barrier islands.

I'm in Seaville, which is about 2 miles inland from the northern end of Sea Isle City.

Classic Ray!

Offshore is inland once you go south of Ocean County? Lived at the shore since 1982 and you learn something everyday.

KC.....what do you guys call the winds blowing west to east down there? ;)

Enjoy the storm!

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No, what you circled is the primary. That's a surface pressure prog.

What I'm saying is that the primary appears to be significantly stronger than expected. The primary must weaken to allow the coastal to strengthen... as long as the primary remains as potent as it is now, the coastal will struggle in its development. This will likely delay its development until its too far NE to have a big impact on much of NJ and E PA.

so you agree with Henry somewhat...why does Steve D say that the low was expected to be that strong at this time

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Classic Ray!

Offshore is inland once you go south of Ocean County. Lived at the shore in 1982 and you learn something everyday.

KC.....what do you guys call the winds blowing west to east down there? ;)

Enjoy the storm!

:lol: Hey c'mon now, in most places "offshore" means out in the ocean ;)

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Still in line for about 6 hours of steady snow (like the models have shown up until about 6z Wed.) where we can hopefully squeeze out 3-4 inches across most of eastern PA. I think the radar speaks for itself, west of JST things lighten up considerably, east of there echos are strengthening as they move east.. Lets see how much we can get out of this.

shd_None_anim.gif

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so you agree with Henry somewhat...why does Steve D say that the low was expected to be that strong at this time

I hate having to do that, but yeah I do agree with Henry somewhat.

It seems increasingly clear that PHL and the Del Valley will be getting their snow from the west, not the south.

There will definitely be some enhancement...some of which is already visible on the radar...as it translates east and energy FINALLY starts to transfer to the coastal later this evening.

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it seems as if too many people were ready to blast Henry but he didnt say storm cancel, he actually kept solid amounts up over NYC 6-8 with possibly 10 if lucky and Philly 3-6...NJ around 6. Thats not that outrageous of a prediction. Yet those weenies on tristate really hammered him for it. God forbid a met not forecast the huge totals. This still gives solid snows and really for NYC south its still going to snow what most of the guidance was saying....3-6 inches maybe 7. This was never Central jersey or Phillys storm and I think 8 inches is a decent showing for NYC

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anyone under the dark band?

Looks to hit Philly soon

It reached me a few minutes ago. So far, what we're getting is more sleet than snow. You can hear the faint crackling sound as it hits, mixed with some tiny tiny flakes. Hopefully that'll pass and we'll get big snowflakes soon

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BOMB YOU SON OF A b**ch! BOMB!

lol. Well you can see, the area of greatest pressure drop has definitely shifted to just off shore (or in other words for that weird guy who thinks "offshore" means inland, over the ocean) .

Here is the 3 hr pres drop from 22Z:

sfc_con_3pres-1.gif

And here is from 23Z:

sfc_con_3pres.gif

Current pressure map just shows a broad area of low pressure, nothing forming yet:

sfc_con_pres.gif

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