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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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Didn't see this posted.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1145 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 120545Z - 120945Z

PRIMARY THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN NEW

ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR LIKELY.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 06Z REVEALED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW /AS MUCH AS

6 MB PER 2 HRS/ CURRENTLY POSITIONED S OF LONG ISLAND NY. THIS IS

OCCURRING AS VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION

AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT 140 KT UPPER JET. AS A

RESULT...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS

MUCH OF THE NYC-PHI CORRIDOR. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND IS

FORECAST TO TRACK NWD TO NEAR KBID BY 12Z. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO

ORGANIZE INTO BANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE CORRIDOR

FROM ERN CT AND RI INTO ERN MASS THE FAVORED REGION FOR THE HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL. ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES FROM EMBEDDED

CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WARM

AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE MAY FAVOR RAINFALL AS THE

PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SERN COAST OF MASS. LATER

THIS MORNING...STRENGTHENING WINDS MAY YIELD NEAR-BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN

MASS...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO AREA.

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Will what are your thoughts this evening?

The radar is starting to look amazing for interior SNE for a possible pivot point somewhere....but sometimes it can be deceiving and can change in a hurry as everything rapidly develops a little further eastward. But I'm liking the trend.

Also, I wouldn't pay attention to the RUC past about 4 or 5 hours...its been trying to rip the low west all evening only to keep moving it east the next cycle as it gets an hour closer. Earlier tonight it had a run that landfalled the low like W of PVD, lol and went over E MA. It brought the dryslot to GC and NW of HFD....and I somehow doubt that will happen. Just as an FYI for what it was doing several hours ago.

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SFC ANALYSIS AT 06Z REVEALED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW /AS MUCH AS

6 MB PER 2 HRS/ CURRENTLY POSITIONED S OF LONG ISLAND NY. THIS IS

OCCURRING AS VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION

AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT 140 KT UPPER JET. AS A

RESULT...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS

MUCH OF THE NYC-PHI CORRIDOR. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND IS

FORECAST TO TRACK NWD TO NEAR KBID BY 12Z. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO

ORGANIZE INTO BANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE CORRIDOR

FROM ERN CT AND RI INTO ERN MASS THE FAVORED REGION FOR THE HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL. ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES FROM EMBEDDED

CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WARM

AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE MAY FAVOR RAINFALL AS THE

PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SERN COAST OF MASS. LATER

THIS MORNING...STRENGTHENING WINDS MAY YIELD NEAR-BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN

MASS...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO AREA.

it's snowing pretty decently about 2 miles inland. But the snow growth sucks, it's warm etc.

Blizzard warning is in trouble on Cape Cod. We'll have the wind but I'm not sure we're going to have the snow...we shall see.

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The radar is starting to look amazing for interior SNE for a possible pivot point somewhere....but sometimes it can be deceiving and can change in a hurry as everything rapidly develops a little further eastward. But I'm liking the trend.

Also, I wouldn't pay attention to the RUC past about 4 or 5 hours...its been trying to rip the low west all evening only to keep moving it east the next cycle as it gets an hour closer. Earlier tonight it had a run that landfalled the low like W of PVD, lol and went over E MA. It brought the dryslot to GC and NW of HFD....and I somehow doubt that will happen. Just as an FYI for what it was doing several hours ago.

Exactly.....Jackpot could very well be well west of here with the banding (I picked N ORH co and SW NH), but the low is not coming through Boston.

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Just woke up. Heavy snow. Even in darkness, I can tell that it's less than 1/4 mile visibility. Three inches new, so far. Snow began a little before 11PM, so it's averaged in inch/hour since it began. 24F.

Radar looks great. Ryan, could this be the one?

Back to sleep (or try to). Alarm set for 4:45.

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