CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow 18z NAM is really west.... dry slot issues a lot of RI/SE Mass I think given that H7 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just need it to close off and rip -U winds and there will be a band of max snowfall west of where qpf max is depicted. sooner the better The NAM seems to hint that areas like BDL and up through the Berks may be near the pviot point for a time. They really could clean up, despite whatever qpf says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I guarantee they will up it at the morning update.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was kind of wondering that about the Euro and GFS...don't they have a tendency to underestimate the impact of banding towards the western side of the QPF max? I feel like we saw that with the Dec 26th event in NY/NJ....and same thing maybe Dec 19 2009. Exactly. I want that H7 low over like MTP or something for central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nam dryslots most of EMA at 700mb while TOL looks to be ripping under a deform according to RH? really?? don't see that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Man...I'm in the NAM jackpot (2"+) for two runs in a row within 24 hours of an event. Not sure how I feel about that. Setting me up for a grumpy day tomorrow if it doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM has been the most consistent throughout the evolution of this storm (18z runs aside). As Tip has said a number of times, it is the better equipped model for these situations. The GFS/Euro huggers will be humbled when this is all over Here's the 18 hour forecast at 12z vs the 12h forecast at 18z. It's delaying the bending of isobars yet again. And it's slowly moving towards other guidance aloft. Don't really care what it shows yet at the surface...if this is at all like last time we'll see some gentle ticks east...but as Mek and Wll etc have all said we have to watch for meso effects later tonight. Again though not a difference between a hit or miss, just NAM/RGEM/Meso Gang and the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the mid level low track I feel good about seeing a secondary QPF max just NW of where the models are showing it. Seems to always happen. look at the massive area of 60%+ prob for 12+ inches in 12hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I still can't believe were continuing to see the NAM spit out these numbers but it's been pretty damn steadfast with it. Wonder if we see the 18z GFS trend upward a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Nam is not further west, I blew it up 200 times on my computer and copared and contrasted the 12Z. The real difference is it is south and east of Block Island then almost heads north-northeast across the Nantucket and eastern Chatum area into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow 18z NAM is really west.... dry slot issues a lot of RI/SE Mass I think given that H7 track. yeah, I was thinking SE mass, not all of EMA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ? The point is...even the the American WRF used GFS boundary conditions (every 6 hours most likely) it was more tucked in than the operational GFS...which gives credence to the more tucked in mesoscale solutions. That'd be the GFS that's gradually been slipping this east right? Doesn't the map you posted pretty much show the exact same position as every model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM seems to hint that areas like BDL and up through the Berks may be near the pviot point for a time. They really could clean up, despite whatever qpf says. The amount of QG forcing we're going to see with massive divergence with the jet streak on the east side of that closed low is going to be nuts. We're going to absolutely rip. People who get some extra forcing thanks to either a CF in NE Mass or a mid level deformation zone are going to go absolutely nuts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. I want that H7 low over like MTP or something for central CT. Well the Nam looking good for that 2 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 really?? don't see that yet. Compare 30-12z vs 24-18z at 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They said they are following HPC, I would like to see that. I can't see how you wouldn't at least take an average of the models. I mean look at the Euro and NAM, my god. Well, I bet they update overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Definitely a much better run for NNE. Can't wait to see CSI and Fronto on the NAM banding site in I think a half hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I still can't believe were continuing to see the NAM spit out these numbers but it's been pretty damn steadfast with it. Wonder if we see the 18z GFS trend upward a bit? 12z did...so why not continue the trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow: NAM not budging... in fact a touch west at 24h... Even concerned about dryslot issues here in Boston metro Don't understand how blizzard criteria are not met with that CCB band once SLP is to our east and winds pick up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the 18 hour forecast at 12z vs the 12h forecast at 18z. It's delaying the bending of isobars yet again. And it's slowly moving towards other guidance aloft. Don't really care what it shows yet at the surface...if this is at all like last time we'll see some gentle ticks east...but as Mek and Wll etc have all said we have to watch for meso effects later tonight. Again though not a difference between a hit or miss, just NAM/RGEM/Meso Gang and the mean. You are what is commonly referred to as a rabble rouser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Increased QPF up in NE MA too a bit it looks like. Virtually of CT gets destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM has been the most consistent throughout the evolution of this storm (18z runs aside). As Tip has said a number of times, it is the better equipped model for these situations. The GFS/Euro huggers will be humbled when this is all over How will they be tumbled? I think everyone here is in agreement that 6-12/8-16 is going to fall. There will likely be a 10-20" stripe as well, the question is near Bob, or near Hartford? Tell the people in Northern Jersey the NAM has been most consisent after the 18z. Their snowstorm totals just took a hit as the NAM failed to materialize the black hole off the coast for another few hours. It'll keep doing this I think for a bit until it agrees with the others.... But either way, kind of aggressive/angry on your part. I'm the last one to ever follow the Euro and it rains on me. So it's not like I'm advocating an IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mid level low actually ends up tucked in to the west after redevelopment. eastern New England getting pounded!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM QPF totals...18z (left) versus 12z (right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I need my beauty sleep. I hope i'm not awakened by a thunderstorm at 7am. That would be bad. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Trust me, Boston won't dry slot. Nams bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z did...so why not continue the trend? My thoughts precisely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is the wind criteria any less if you are seeing insane rates? I mean verbatim I dont think we make the wind criteria but I think there is going to be a band of 2-4"/hr rates that sits on some spots for 6 hours. That would be blizzard conditions even though the winds are a little below criteria. There has to be some way to warn the public about conditions like that in advance other than a short term statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well, I bet they update overnight... Right now Burlington has White River, VT more snow forecast than Derry, NH or Portland, ME for Gray, does that seem strange to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.