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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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SNOWFALL RATES MAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME

BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN CONNECTICUT

THROUGH RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER...THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST

ACROSS CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS

TOWARD DAYBREAK.

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SPC has us in the general thunderstorm line :thumbsup:

...MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING FROM ERN NJ TO

PARTS OF SRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK.

SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL

UNDERGO VERY STRONG INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THIS

FEATURE TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD. THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW

SHOULD BE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY

MORNING PERIOD...AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /UP TO 200-240 METERS PER 12

HR AT 500 MB/ SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING

TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIDLEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING

LAPSE RATES ATOP REGIME OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FROM NJ TO SRN NEW

ENGLAND RESULTING IN MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT

TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. THUS...EMBEDDED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE EXPECTED BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS VERY INTENSE

STORM SYSTEM.

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SNOWFALL RATES MAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME

BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN CONNECTICUT

THROUGH RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER...THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST

ACROSS CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS

TOWARD DAYBREAK.

lol, morning commute is going to be stupid for some. As long as the T is working, I'm all set...

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how do you figure.. central nj is getting crushed now with 2-3 hr rates for the next 2-4 hours.. looks like an additional 4-8 inches.. he'll end up with at least 10 maybe 15"

I hope so for his sake but things appear to be moving eastward at a pretty good clip and as this low bombs it should consolidate more centrally until it opens up after occlusion...right?

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Snow has commenced in ORH...it just went from nothing to like 2 mi SN- pretty quick...it looks like it goes moderate quickly after that on radar.

Yeah, it comes in like a wall of white, I looked out and saw nothing, 30 minutes later its coming down pretty good and about 1/2 inch already, this should accumulate pretty quickly overnight, I should go to bed and get up at 6.

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It looks good there but he's at the end of the show. Maybe he'll end up with 7-8.

i think he gets more than that

look at the radar down there....echoes are turning a bit NNW ..over w long island ...he will prob be getting 3 inch an hour over him or just east.....could end up over a foot easy in that deform band setting up over East Central jersey and Long island.

that LP needs to keep heading NE/NNE and not do any tuck NNW crap .......

i think this storm might be moving thru a tad bit faster than forecast.

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lol, morning commute is going to be stupid for some. As long as the T is working, I'm all set...

Not even going to try. Last time the boss called and said I had poor planning. I shoveled, destroyed my back then he proceeded to not pay for anyone over an hour late. This time I won't make it till Tues!

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This is ridiculous, almost 60 dBZ approaching Long Island. That's damn good for even a summertime storm in Florida!

Westhampton, LI is getting some ridiculous rates now, but might be about to change over since they're at 34 °F. Scary thing is there won't be a changeover when this stuff reaches SNE...

post-645-0-86274100-1294810728.png

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I hope so for his sake but things appear to be moving eastward at a pretty good clip and as this low bombs it should consolidate more centrally until it opens up after occlusion...right?

in southern yes.. but hes in central jersey adn things are not moving at all in central nj.. deform band has set up right over and looks like it will sit there for a while.. someones getting 18" over there....

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i think he gets more than that

look at the radar down there....echoes are turning a bit NNW ..over w long island ...he will prob be getting 3 inch an hour over him or just east.....could end up over a foot easy in that deform band setting up over East Central jersey and Long island.

that LP needs to keep heading NE/NNE and not do any tuck NNW crap .......

i think this storm might be moving thru a tad bit faster than forecast.

If what you are saying is true, we may have a carbon copy of 12/26. Fine for me but not so for many.

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