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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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I feel good.....temps rising throughout the immediate Boston area and the uncle Ukie is west......yummie.

You should. Your general area, through Will and Kev look great. Obviously we don't know if crazy mesoscale things will happen, but you should feel good. I'm camping out in Andover right now, for work tomorrow...hopefully it gets pretty wild.

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It should be snowing here in about 20 minutes and to you in about 45 min. It looks like we won't have to wait until 2 or 3am. My only fear is it's one narrow band and then convective crap afterwords, while the main CCB sits up in CT/RI and the rest of MA.

If we stay cold enough we're good on precip.

People will not understand why I didn't like the MM5 earlier but do now...it was outside it's prime range this morning just barely and was using the NAM data that was a little tapped...it should be pretty good tonight.

That said it has this first band coming up over us by about 1. As it does it develops a nasty area of precip off NJ and races it up over SE NE. We'd get absolutely smoked by it for 3-4 hours - just incredible rates.

Not surprisngly the NAM does the same thing....swings that stuff off NJ right up over us later. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/eta212_00UTC/eta_c700_h06.gif

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You should. Your general area, through Will and Kev look great. Obviously we don't know if crazy mesoscale things will happen, but you should feel good. I'm camping out in Andover right now, for work tomorrow...hopefully it gets pretty wild.

You're in a good place. I suspect we have to fight some bl here but probably stay snow.

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The two eastern most reporting stations on Long Island are reporting light snow with viz. at a mile with temps at 31 in Islip and 32 at West Hampton Beach. Montauk's automated but the temp there has dipped to 33. Looks like Upton will bust high in Eastern Suffolk. Groton is the only reporting station I'm seeing at midnight with S+. Here in Newport flakes aren't exactly silver dollar size but close to it and snow is accumulating quickly even though the Viz. is a hare above a half a mile.

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It will be interesting to watch winds over the s-coast in the next few hours. Some of the models still want to bring this into extreme se mass, near Scott. BID has a brisk es wind.

scott could you tell me where the mid level low is currently.

is this thing very close to pivoting or is this something you think will happen in a better spot for E SNE or WSNE? mucho appreciated

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I'd be shocked if you had precip type issues.......I don't think those make it beyond PYM and the immediate s coast.

You'll drip, but not rain...

look at the 18hr UKIE LP postion or the latest RUC.....takes 8H 0c over most of RI large part of E. MA Not saying it's gonna happen but def. worth keeping an eye on . esp for spots near BOS-PVD.

radar shows this low is Moving FAST And making a b line for Central Long island

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&loop=yes

oh ya take a look at the banding in south central NJ....holy crap.

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You're in a good place. I suspect we have to fight some bl here but probably stay snow.

I think boundary layer will be fine for your hood. It's the games with the DS, that concern me. But, maybe something like the MM5 plays out and we get the CCB wrapping right around the low, as mid levels just go apesh*t.

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I'd be shocked if you had precip type issues.......I don't think those make it beyond PYM and the immediate s coast.

You'll drip, but not rain...

Maybe but hopefully short lived. And UKMET is the furthest west. The rest of the suite, NAM/GFS/RGEM/GGEM bring it out further east plus the 12Z Euro. So I'm feeling ok. NAM would be a great verification but it probably won't happen..

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Anyone getting some totals so far out of NJ? Back edge swinging in a little faster than I would like to see. Overall, the convective stuff has been confined off the coast of NJ, a little east of the meso models I think

I was actually just looking at the MM5 - it seems to be about dead nuts on if not a few miles too far east with the max.

EDIT: DOH forgot what time it is...probably will be a little east like you said..NE

700w.06.0000.gif

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snapback.pngkvf5, on 12 January 2011 - 12:00 AM, said:Snow has just begun a few minutes ago in Williamstown, MA (the extreme NW corner of the state). Very light coating of new snow, on top of 4" snowpack.

hi and welcome to the site.

what is your elevation out there.

Elevation is about 700 ft where I am. Higher mountains nearby.

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Yep, almost feels like stuff caught up in the wind, but it's out there. I'm on the east side of 93, up near Ballardvale and Woburn Street, off of 125. The NE tip of the town.

Nothing, here.....I'm right behind the Shawsheen school, on the Billerica line and down the street from the Tewksbury line.

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look at the 18hr UKIE LP postion or the latest RUC.....takes 8H 0c over most of RI large part of E. MA Not saying it's gonna happen but def. worth keeping an eye on . esp for spots near BOS-PVD.

radar shows this low is Moving FAST And making a b line for Central Long island

http://radar.weather...ct=N0R&loop=yes

oh ya take a look at the banding in south central NJ....holy crap.

Forget the RUC at this time frame (beyond 6 hours). It has a tendency to plow the low into eastern MA. Not gonna happen....period end of report.

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