mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I do not agree with GYX forecast..6-12? Just updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone check out the 12z American WRF...much more tucked in than the GFS. The NAM is closer to the coast because of it's non-hydrostatic mesoscale physics...not because it's wrong. This used GFS boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM looks identical to 12z, despite a little east at first. It looks like it responds to the incredible forcing, making it move due north. Yes it does come north....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That is one of the most amazing model runs I can remember.. I don't think I have seen 1.5"+ in 6hrs in a CCB before (over my house no less). I keep thinking it will back off a little and it just keeps amping it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM looks identical to 12z, despite a little east at first. It looks like it responds to the incredible forcing, making it move due north. Looking a little colder at the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some QPF love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Come on. Look at the SLP initialized on the Euro. It's clear it IS missing something. People are so biased to the EURO or GFS like it can do no wrong. And, I know you can't stand the NAM, but you have to look in to it's strengths. Here's the 18 hour forecast at 12z vs the 12h forecast at 18z. It's delaying the bending of isobars yet again. And it's slowly moving towards other guidance aloft. Don't really care what it shows yet at the surface...if this is at all like last time we'll see some gentle ticks east...but as Mek and Wll etc have all said we have to watch for meso effects later tonight. Again though not a difference between a hit or miss, just NAM/RGEM/Meso Gang and the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 compare: 9z: 15z: I like Weenies west and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At 18h SLP about same position just east of LI, slightly tighter with precipitation field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I do not agree with GYX forecast..6-12? Just updated. I think they like the GFS........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 15z sref: Based on the mid level low track I feel good about seeing a secondary QPF max just NW of where the models are showing it. Seems to always happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Odd...the US view of my Euro QPF maps has a completely different QPF output compared to the zoomed in NE view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone check out the 12z American WRF...much more tucked in than the GFS. The NAM is closer to the coast because of it's non-hydrostatic mesoscale physics...not because it's wrong. This used GFS boundary conditions. Is that what's helping it not forecast 500mb correctly at six hours? -- Scott, but if you ask people around NYC it "is" different...it's chopped the back edge of QPF sharpely...to come into agreement with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OKX sure loves this storm..just updated the forecast to 18-24 inches across southern CT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That would work yes...a prelim congrats to you looks like 18z NAM is gonna jackpot essentially the same area...my town up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the mid level low track I feel good about seeing a secondary QPF max just NW of where the models are showing it. Seems to always happen. just need it to close off and rip -U winds and there will be a band of max snowfall west of where qpf max is depicted. sooner the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well things sure just got interesting for SW CT. Seems like we are literally on the line between significant snow and potential "historic" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM might be like 5-10 miles west @ 24 if you zoom it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Awesome six hour period for NE areas/SW ME!!! Love the little screw job it gives me in the same interval. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow. destroyed on the NAM... again.. but I am worried about bl issues.. seems a littler further west.. or could be my eyes.. getting older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM might be like 5-10 miles west @ 24 if you zoom it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think they like the GFS........... They said they are following HPC, I would like to see that. I can't see how you wouldn't at least take an average of the models. I mean look at the Euro and NAM, my god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that what's helping it not forecast 500mb correctly at six hours? -- Scott, but if you ask people around NYC it "is" different...it's chopped the back edge of QPF sharpely...to come into agreement with the other models. I know, it starts out east, but moves due north. I'm just saying what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just need it to close off and rip -U winds and there will be a band of max snowfall west of where qpf max is depicted. sooner the better This run looks like it tries to close off a bit earlier than the 12z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that what's helping it not forecast 500mb correctly at six hours? -- Scott, but if you ask people around NYC it "is" different...it's chopped the back edge of QPF sharpely...to come into agreement with the other models. ? The point is...even the the American WRF used GFS boundary conditions (every 6 hours most likely) it was more tucked in than the operational GFS...which gives credence to the more tucked in mesoscale solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just need it to close off and rip -U winds and there will be a band of max snowfall west of where qpf max is depicted. sooner the better Yup... all along i've been looking for that mid level low to close off on the NJ shore. That's critical for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nam dryslots most of EMA at 700mb while TOL looks to be ripping under a deform according to RH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the mid level low track I feel good about seeing a secondary QPF max just NW of where the models are showing it. Seems to always happen. I was kind of wondering that about the Euro and GFS...don't they have a tendency to underestimate the impact of banding towards the western side of the QPF max? I feel like we saw that with the Dec 26th event in NY/NJ....and same thing maybe Dec 19 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any mets have a take on R/S line verbatim on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM verbatim is like 25-30" of snow in Metro Bos depending on ratios (and r/s line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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