Arnold214 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Crazy Uncle popping doubles! Thats pretty damn good for the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Crazy Uncle popping doubles! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Because it doesn't spit out the same high QPF? It still shows the max in SE CT, just like most other models. I thought we were always told QPF was the last field output, look at everything else. It looks fine otherwise IMO, and the fact that it's putting the maxes where it is.....not sure what's wrong with it. valid point on qpf distribution.. but you can clearly see that we are going to get much more than what it is showing in western new england.. and that fact that's it's been adjusting west every run is showing that it's missing something and is trying to fix its error but its too late.. according to gfs this afternoon western ct was going to get 4-8"... we might have that in a few hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Given the MCS that's developing off the coast of NJ, I'm going to go on a limb and say that the UKMET/NAM/RGEM QPF is probably going to verify better than the GFS QPF. In CT at least, and most likely everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Crazy Uncle popping doubles! Exactly where the NAM/GFS/UK/MM5 all show a deformation band setting up after the initial punch tonight. I don't think we see much of a tick now either way, models are locked and loaded (finally)...im betting everyone that's been hating the UK/GFS for days will now love it, esp those in SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah that was bizarre...I think the lift probably ended up a little offset and the bullseye of the lift wasn't that thick (deep)...that's my guess anyway. We got 12" of sugar in Oswego also with that storm...I think snow growth sucked for everyone outside of northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1WFG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A point I tried to emphasize with my students today. Me, I went skiing... The physics behind this is quite simple. Homework sucks. This then creates a low pressure zone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah, that's it. Thanks. Guess I'm just a dork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 valid point on qpf distribution.. but you can clearly see that we are going to get much more than what it is showing in western new england.. and that fact that's it's been adjusting west every run is showing that it's missing something and is trying to fix its error but its too late.. according to gfs this afternoon western ct was going to get 4-8"... we might have that in a few hours.. Understood...just saying the OP GFS always spreads the .1 too far, and is notorious for underforecasting QPF. The fact that it's nailing the same general area with it's max... 6 hours ago the NAM and RGEM all gave me a lot of rain here. Consensus slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 yeah i was gonna say something....but....meh whatever GFS has been an excellent model this winter.....very consistent, with consistent trends, sure it can be off but it consistently moves int the right direction with no lurching around....excellent job this year IMO. yes like is said for this storm no goodski though.. overall this winter excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I did that. Me. Personally. Just finished typing up last quiz, tweaked accompanying Powerpoint. Doing homework makes it snow -- fact. Domugenic snow! Vim Toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Crazy Uncle popping doubles! Whether that verifies or not, amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Given the MCS that's developing off the coast of NJ, I'm going to go on a limb and say that the UKMET/NAM/RGEM QPF is probably going to verify better than the GFS QPF. In CT at least, and most likely everywhere. Dom, For the first time in a long time, I feel confident that we are going to get romped in this one.... I'm going 15-18" for our area... what about you? We are in the perfect spot to stay outta the dryslot and in the heavy snow until the storm is in the GOM I have a funny feeling that a place like EEN will report 20" and we're gonna be like WTF??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Jerry, do you have the next UKMET panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 !!!:snowman::snowman:!!! Don't see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That looks like the radar. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 W. Ma mets have all upped their 11pm projected totals from their 6pm broadcasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Dom, For the first time in a long time, I feel confident that we are going to get romped in this one.... I'm going 15-18" for our area... what about you? We are in the perfect spot to stay outta the dryslot and in the heavy snow until the storm is in the GOM I have a funny feeling that a place like EEN will report 20" and we're gonna be like WTF??? I final called 10-16'' here. And I agree...love where we are. No dryslot, good ratios, crushed by CCB. Not to mention the early morning fun before 00z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Juicy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 SN now...pavement cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Plow cleared the street...it, uh, covered back up fast. We're really getting somewhere, though I hope the snow growth improves soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NB-Weather Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ahh, under a nice 36 dBZ radar echo.. Can't see end of street, probably about 1/4th mile visibility. Dendrites are literally perfect, accumulating nicely. Time to go outside!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ahh, under a nice 36 dBZ radar echo.. Can't see end of street, probably about 1/4th mile visibility. Dendrites are literally perfect, accumulating nicely. Time to go outside!! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ouch..looks like a canal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 7-14 or 8-16 through all of MA/CT/RI as a general base seems absolutely fine, paint in 10-20 over the entire area pinned by the NAM aside of SE MA/maybe SE RI where i'd stick with 6-12 until we're sure it's not going to rain/8-16 when we're sure it's not which includes the cape to otis. In the 10-20 band there could be spot totals to 20-25". Jerry-bob-Kev-Ginx-towards ryan up towards will...in that general area someone could top 2" QPF....but let's see how it shakes out...includes ray too...like I said the NAM essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thunder/lightning-snow on that Brooklyn guy's cam just now. Vim Toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 2011/01/12 03:53 KDXR 120353Z 03005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M06/M07 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP134 P0002 T10561067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 it's 11:11 on 1/11/11 make a f'n wish weenie flakes are flyin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thunder/lightning-snow on that Brooklyn guy's cam just now. Vim Toot yeahi saw that TooT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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