Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well in areas where BL temps arent near 32F, I could see ratios higher than 10 to 1 as long as snow growth is good...and it looks like snow growth will be pretty good in most areas. It will be even better ratios in the heavy bands.

Will is the 850 C temps near -5 to -6 ..... warmer than 925 (which they are for a good majority of us) per SPC hourly mesoscale analysis....is this a red flag against good snow growth/ ratio's or not at all. i was concerned of a possible warmer layer around 8H.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah ratios arent as dependant on sfc temps as people think...it has a lot to do with snowflake type. Ive seen 15-1 ratios at 31-32F and ive seen 10-1 ratios at 10F. If im not mistaken BTV had 10-1 ratios in the valentines storm despite being around 10F.

Yeah I've seen great ratios too just a tick or two below freezing. Really if its below freezing at all, then the ratios will be mostly determined by snow growth.

Remember the baking powder bomb on 12/13/07? I think we were all mostly in the low 20s (with even some upper teens in N/C SNE) and our ratios were all near 10 to 1 because we had those fine flakes that made it like baking powder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK, I think GYX is reading my posts. They raised NH amounts, and lowered Maine, wow. Brought me from 8-12, down to 6-12, and Portland from 8-14 to 6-12...Disturbing to read before I go to bed.

Whatever happens happens. Remember, nws offices cant control the wx. Go to bed thinking good thoughts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will is the 850 C temps near -5 to -6 ..... warmer than 925 (which they are for a good majority of us) per SPC hourly mesoscale analysis....is this a red flag against good snow growth/ ratio's or not at all. i was concerned of a possible warmer layer around 8H.

http://www.spc.ncep....r.php?sector=16#

The good omega is going to be ripping all the way past 500mb in this one...at leats initially...and the values are so good that I don't think we'll see bad snow growth...later in the storm if you get into a partial dryslot (say it dries out above 750mb or 700mb), then it could become an issue, but its hard to say how far NW that problem would make it....doesn't seem like it will be an issue for most areas, but we'll cross that bridge when we see it later overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I've seen great ratios too just a tick or two below freezing. Really if its below freezing at all, then the ratios will be mostly determined by snow growth.

Remember the baking powder bomb on 12/13/07? I think we were all mostly in the low 20s (with even some upper teens in N/C SNE) and our ratios were all near 10 to 1 because we had those fine flakes that made it like baking powder.

Oh yeah, i remember 12/13/07. Dendrites were nowhere to be found in my area for the most part. Kinda weird too since the omega was bullseyed in the dendritic growth zone. I still dont really understand it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New update? I see ENE still on tne ndbc site.

Whats your thought on temps? I think the NAM would have us looking good through 12z....

the nam is a snow bomb all the way to HYA. it has over an inch qpf falling as snow before it flips at around 13z...then it's .2 or so rain, before back to snow with another .2 to .3. so for you it's probably all frozen. per bufkit at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, RUC continues to look good for western zones as it takes low from near BID toward or just inside the CC Canel. Dry slot gets into BOS for a time if it verifies.

The RUC wants to run it between the Canal and Boston, by a little after 7am it's dry slotting all of EMA/RI and parts of CT. It's either scoring or coup or proving once and for all it's useful for verifying 5h etc, blows with EC Lows.

I hope it ends up further west then modeled......

No ambien, I'll nap for a few hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the nam is a snow bomb all the way to HYA. it has over an inch qpf falling as snow before it flips at around 13z...then it's .2 or so rain, before back to snow with another .2 to .3. so for you it's probably all frozen. per bufkit at least.

Cool! Thanks Phil, I appreciation the confirmation. Let's see what the GFS does....we could use a tick east and we'd really get clobbered.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the nam is a snow bomb all the way to HYA. it has over an inch qpf falling as snow before it flips at around 13z...then it's .2 or so rain, before back to snow with another .2 to .3. so for you it's probably all frozen. per bufkit at least.

actually it's pretty darn good all the way out to CHH with .8 or .9 falling as snow before the flip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...