Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 messenger.....(you usually answer) what do ratio's look like over the region guys? i.e GC/ 495/ SE Mass/CC also sneaky warm layer's showing up anywhere? anything modeled.... I looked at the click sounding deal on twister for my area and it looked fine until 12z ish...after that it was a little toasty but way down low. The clown graphics which ironically have been very good this year have me on the line for a bit 1000/850mb temps. From my experience watching that line this year, the actual mix/change line is SE of it by a few clicks each time - 12/26 for instance. Logic tells me I'm still going to have issues here unless the track is over ACK and even then, it's a touch and go deal. Ratios, I always assume 10 to 1 but that's because of where I live....will/scott/etc can better answer. Happens to Kevin all the time without Ambien. LOL, I actually hate the stuff, feel awful the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I actually think GYX is a little gun shy after the boxing day storm. All of southern NH and Maine where 15-24 inches was forecast ended up with 6-12 at most, more common around 7 or so. Then on top of that, the White Mountains and western NH got 18-24 inches of snow, when they were supposed to get far less. That storm was a lot different than this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Stuff is nuts, sleep like a log but wake up wearing lipstick, a coon skin hat and cheekless chaps. It's amazing that it just shuts down all parts of the brain but the motor skills. I think I'll just drink a Bushmills. If I'm interested in that other stuff, I can find that around here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Can someone start posting that New England temperature map that clusters all the obs. yes yes....money pit mike sometimes posts it ...wanna see sign of coastal front set up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Don't hyper link the mesonet page. (guy who owns the site asked us not to as its an extra load on them) Upload it first and then post it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wish there was a way to rig the internet so that when kev/kgay wake up in a few hours and say "here we go...game on" we can say "wtf you all talking about...u guys dream like weenies...we're under a 570dm ridge and are expecting record highs tmrw. Get a grip"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just watched Matt Noyes, said he's not buying the models saying the R/S line makes it up to DUX/Marshfield, said it will most likely stay down by the Canal and immediate coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well, the 18Z GFS greatly improved the precip in Maine and NH, I hope the trend continues. They should look at everything though, the Euro used to be god. I think more favor the north trend of precip right now. 18z GFS only brought the .75" line further north, They are expecting 12:1 ratios, So 6-12" is in line, We need the low to come further north into the GOM, 00z Nam made it as far as Portsmouth before it went ENE shutting the precip off from advancing further north and west......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I actually think GYX is a little gun shy after the boxing day storm. All of southern NH and Maine where 15-24 inches was forecast ended up with 6-12 at most, more common around 7 or so. Then on top of that, the White Mountains and western NH got 18-24 inches of snow, when they were supposed to get far less. That storm was a lot different than this one though. I am rather interested in what Mr Ekster would forecast were he on the job right now. (hint, hint) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Don't hyper link the mesonet page. (guy who owns the site asked us not to as its an extra load on them) Upload it first and then post it: Ratios near 10:1 unless in strong banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 looks like a hook echo south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 LOOK AT THIS JET IN VIRGINIA 150 knots....oh baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think I'll just drink a Bushmills. If I'm interested in that other stuff, I can find that around here, too. Good stuff! -- BOMBS AWAY, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44009 dropping 2+ per hour now. ENE winds low should pass east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ratios near 10:1 unless in strong banding? Well in areas where BL temps arent near 32F, I could see ratios higher than 10 to 1 as long as snow growth is good...and it looks like snow growth will be pretty good in most areas. It will be even better ratios in the heavy bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wish there was a way to rig the internet so that when kev/kgay wake up in a few hours and say "here we go...game on" we can say "wtf you all talking about...u guys dream like weenies...we're under a 570dm ridge and are expecting record highs tmrw. Get a grip"! You want to get them up just text them that the Nam and GFS @00z went east 100 miles that should do it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well in areas where BL temps arent near 32F, I could see ratios higher than 10 to 1 as long as snow growth is good...and it looks like snow growth will be pretty good in most areas. It will be even better ratios in the heavy bands. Sounds good, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 18z GFS only brought the .75" line further north, They are expecting 12:1 ratios, So 6-12" is in line, We need the low to come further north into the GOM, 00z Nam made it as far as Portsmouth before it went ENE shutting the precip off from advancing further north and west......... Why 12-1? Wow, it's 13F here right now, I know there is more to it though, but it looks like good snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 dunno about gfs but nam and euro were both >1" here. I know it was, But i think they are blending them....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Love the radar loop...snow in central PA is slowly shutting off as the OV low weakens while thunderstorms fire off the NJ coast and S of LI as the coastal low bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Why 12-1? A GENERAL 12 TO 1 RATIO FOR SNOW BASED ON QPF FROM THE WETTER NAM...DRIER GFS...AND HPC. TWO FACTORS WORKING AGAINST HIGHER RATIOS...WINDS CAUSING BREAKUP OF THE CRYSTALS AS WELL AS AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY WARMER LLVL AIR LATE IN THE STORMS PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think 9-13" here... would love a bit more. Was at Wachusett for a little while tonight. Looked pretty "non snowy" from the top looking north. That will change big time. I"ll be happy with 12" Definetely hitting Wach Thur or Fri night this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just watched Matt Noyes, said he's not buying the models saying the R/S line makes it up to DUX/Marshfield, said it will most likely stay down by the Canal and immediate coastline. That's because he just saw the NAM! -- Guys up north I wouldn't give up on more QPF yet...NAM may still be holding too much back to the SW in lieu of you guys, let's see what the others show but it's probably looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Good stuff! -- BOMBS AWAY, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44009 dropping 2+ per hour now. ENE winds low should pass east NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow, looking at radar looks like the goods set up from hvn east, some serious snows coming your way in the next few hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well in areas where BL temps arent near 32F, I could see ratios higher than 10 to 1 as long as snow growth is good...and it looks like snow growth will be pretty good in most areas. It will be even better ratios in the heavy bands. Yeah ratios arent as dependant on sfc temps as people think...it has a lot to do with snowflake type. Ive seen 15-1 ratios at 31-32F and ive seen 10-1 ratios at 10F. If im not mistaken BTV had 10-1 ratios in the valentines storm despite being around 10F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!! 9:47 pm GYX update: WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW. THEREFORE...WITH THE NORTHERN SHIFT AND BIAS WITH THE MODEL(S) APPEARING TO HAVE STOPPED...WILL NOT EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FURTHER NORTH AT THIS TIME...AND WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE TO REVIEW AREAS WHERE CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 RGEM looks very similar to the NAM but dont take my word for it because I'm not looking that closely at the bw graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Moderate snow northern Queens new York 100 yrs it was called long island temp 28.9 were gonna get our first inch any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 First flakes...check...Jack and coke...check...like a child with excitement...check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1WFG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 My post redundant -- edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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