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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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Don't the models that are being favored ones that have parts of GYX forecast area getting 1 inch+ qpf? in this situation wouldn't that mean 12 - 16 inches? What am I missing here? I mean, these guys are mets so I assume they know what they are doing...certainly more than me, but doesn't that seem strange? Anyone reading the zone forecast would think we are getting a run of the mill storm up here, no biggie 6-10 inches. Folks may wake up to something much more than that. I see the weenie side of this but I expected to wake up today to a 6-10 forecast...after the models today I assumed we would be upgraded to 10-15.

They slowly ticked my area up today. It will happen again overnight for all. I guess that want to be sure before pulling the trigger.

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Don't the models that are being favored ones that have parts of GYX forecast area getting 1 inch+ qpf? in this situation wouldn't that mean 12 - 16 inches? What am I missing here? I mean, these guys are mets so I assume they know what they are doing...certainly more than me, but doesn't that seem strange? Anyone reading the zone forecast would think we are getting a run of the mill storm up here, no biggie 6-10 inches. Folks may wake up to something much more than that. I see the weenie side of this but I expected to wake up today to a 6-10 forecast...after the models today I assumed we would be upgraded to 10-15.

If they are basing it of the Nam and GFS, No, GFS for the most part was .50" and the Nam .75", Thats why they are waiting to see where the GFS goes me think, Plus they sleep with HPC.....lol.......

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AWT.

LOL, I wear a cape while driving like the seinfeld episode where Larry David did a cameo.

:lol: Different trip in every pill.......

Stuff is nuts, sleep like a log but wake up wearing lipstick, a coon skin hat and cheekless chaps.

It's amazing that it just shuts down all parts of the brain but the motor skills.

On the riding mower?

I still can see the moon... That radar is absolutely beautiful

LOL, yard's too small I still mow with a sickle.

---

NAM will only tick east if that little micro-vortmax is another phoney. If it's legit I don't think we'll see it wobble but it did butcher the 6-12 hour forecasts just the other day doing the same thing...so who knows. If the rest of the guidance is different, go with it :) It's still holding an odd micro vortmax as it passes just SE of CT, seems out of place so who knows.

--

In any case great snowstorm incoming for everyone, lets hope Phil and everyone else can get in on the fun.

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If they are basing it of the Nam and GFS, No, GFS for the most part was .50" and the Nam .75", Thats why they are waiting to see where the GFS goes me think.......

Well, the 18Z GFS greatly improved the precip in Maine and NH, I hope the trend continues. They should look at everything though, the Euro used to be god. I think more favor the north trend of precip right now.

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Hey all, long time lurker. Used to lurk and post some obs during events at Eastern. I'm up on the Andover/Wimington line, obviously pretty close to Ray. We seem to be in a pretty good spot. Just ran out and picked up three large iced coffees from 7/11 to throw in the fridge because I'll be an unhappy guy tomorrow morning if I can't get out and get my coffee. Hope you all enjoy the snow. As usual, I'll enjoy reading the posts of those of you that know a hell of a lot more about this than myself.

OT: Which poster (or which former poster) runs the www.atkinsonweather.com site? I remember I clicked a link in someone's sig line at Eastern a few years back and ever since, I've been using their local interactive radar to follow events around here. Whoever it is, thanks.

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